Fantasy HockeyFront OfficeJosh Kay

Fantasy Hockey Daily Fix, Saturday March 15th

Prize structure is a big point of contention with me recently. In my trials and tribulations over at DK, I have been extremely frustrated by the payout structure in big tournaments, finding that if I finish in the 91st to 90th percentile, I sometimes don’t even double my money. The big attraction there is first place, then a substantial drop-off occurs.

I have been finding that the good folks over at Draft Street have something quite unique in terms of pricing model, and have a very excellent payout structure. It can be tougher to cash on Draft Street sometimes, but when you cash, you will at the very least, double your money (but you usually will at least triple it). For me, that’s what I look for in a GPP tournament. Sure, the big attraction is always first place, but how attainable is that really? If I want to double my money for much better odds, I will just play double ups — which Draft Street has by the way, with no rake.

If your interest has been peaked, I encourage you to join me over at Draft Street so we can take the hockey DFS industry by storm, together over there. Pricing is a bit odd for newcomers, but once it is mastered, you can gain a real advantage, especially if you enjoy getting cute and picking depth lines like I do.

It’s interesting, because yesterday my low priced players actually were just as good if not better than most of my super-stars. Benn and Seguin got on the board as I expected, but they did not open the floodgates, which in fairness, against Joey MacDonald, should have occurred. Riley Sheahan, Tomas Tatar and Jordie Benn were great though, as they all came through nicely. Of course, Cory Schneider also decided yesterday was turd laying day — notice he was 41% owned, so he ruined everyone, not just us.

Tonight there are still seven games left, and I encourage all of you to join Draft Street. If you have not started an account there, please use this link:

Normally we don’t give away free lineups, but today is a special day. This next portion of the article is normally reserved for our Front Office Members, which you can be for just $18.99 for an entire year. For more on how to become a Fantasy Fix Front Office Member, as well as why should become one, please visit this link

Today we will attack Draft Street’s Pick-Em contest.

This contest gives you 5-8 options (depending on Tier) to choose from, and you try to pick the best team out of those options. It is a nice format because it condenses the player pool significantly, and is a great game type on very large slates when you won’t be tempted to waste money by trying to make a million different lineups so you can get exposure to everyone.

Draft Street Pick-Em:

Tier 1:

The Choices: (these are Goaltenders)

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Michal Neuvirth (BUF-G)
@NYI
6.39 10.2 4.82
Jonathan Quick (LA-G)
Anh
5.54 6.54 4.5
Jonas Hiller (ANH-G)
@LA
6.05 4.32 5.61
Pekka Rinne (NSH-G)
StL
5.49 6.06 4.91

My Pick: Darcy Kuemper

Kuemper has been elite this year, as he sports a .927 save percentage on the year. The rookie goaltender is turning in an impressive season, and should be a candidate for rookie of the year. Kuemper is the most likely candidate to get a win tonight, although Jonas Hiller is tempting as well, but they are on the road.

Tier 2:

The choices:

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Jeff Carter (LA-RW)
Anh
3.56 4.18 3.08
Jason Spezza (OTT-C)
@Mon
3.18 5.44 3.84
Alexander Steen (STL-RW)
@Nsh
3.97 3 2.94
Ryan Getzlaf (ANH-C)
@LA
4.39 3.09 4.16
Zach Parise (MIN-LW)
Cls
3.83 4.42 3.59

My Pick: Zach Parise

This one is close for me between Parise and Jason Spezza. The Michalek – Spezza – Hemsky line has been incredibly good since Hemsky was acquired at the trade deadline, but on the road against Montreal gives the Canadiens the matchup advantage. I may regret this, but I’m going Parise here in a very tight decision.

Tier 3:

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Anze Kopitar (LA-C)
Anh
3.33 3.78 3.19
Thomas Vanek (MON-LW)
Ott
3.32 3.8 3.98
Max Pacioretty (MON-LW)
Ott
3.53 3.67 3.72
Adam Henrique (NJ-C)
@TB
2.47 5.04 1.91
Kyle Okposo (NYI-RW)
Buf
3.58 3.73 2.05
T.J. Oshie (STL-RW)
@Nsh
3 3.38 2.73

My Pick: T.J. Oshie

This pick is a safe pick. Oshie has the greatest chance out of anyone on this list, to score. Henrique, while he has been hot over his last fifteen games, has been taken off the top powerplay unit. Oshie’s line of him, Vladimir Sobotka and Vladimir Tarasenko has been absolutely phenomenal lately. Vanek and Pacioretty should be good, but I’d rather not get into a guessing game with those guys, and pick the wrong one. So I’ll fade both and hope they don’t score — since they are now skating with each other.

Tier 4:

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
P.K. Subban (MON-D)
Ott
3.15 3.48 4.11
Jaromir Jagr (NJ-RW)
@TB
3.23 3.59 2.97
Ales Hemsky (OTT-RW)
@Mon
2.01 5.06 2.15
Erik Karlsson (OTT-D)
@Mon
3.55 2.88 4.17
Jaden Schwartz (STL-LW)
@Nsh
3.08 3.4 1.16
Radim Vrbata (PHO-RW)
Cgy
3.03 3 3.46

My Pick: Ales Hemsky

And right here is the perfect spot to hedge your bets. I faded Spezza earlier because Parise has higher upside in my mind, but now I get some exposure to that great top line from Ottawa without incurring more losses. Subban and Karlsson probably have the most upside, but with points for plus/minus in play on Draft Street, I’d rather not incur the wrath of that statistic.

Tier 5:

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Tyler Ennis (BUF-C)
@NYI
2.35 3.47 2.47
Michael Cammalleri (CGY-LW)
@Pho
2.53 3.79 2.65
Valtteri Filppula (TB-C)
NJ
2.73 3.04 1.73
Mike Fisher (NSH-C)
StL
2.78 3.26 2.6
Brandon Dubinsky (CLS-C)
@Min
3.01 2.77 2.99
Matt Moulson (MIN-LW)
Cls
2.8 3.05 3.5

My Pick: Tyler Ennis

The New York Islanders are rolling out Anders Nilsson in net tonight. The Sabres have been better lately, and I’m going to go the contrarian route here and pick Ennis. The safe pick though is probably Matt Moulson, but I shamelessly admit my contrarian nature openly.

Tier 6:

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Drew Stafford (BUF-RW)
@NYI
2.15 2.57 1.73
Cody Hodgson (BUF-C)
@NYI
2.39 2.56 2.75
Mikael Backlund (CGY-C)
@Pho
2.34 2.66 2.45
Brendan Gallagher (MON-RW)
Ott
2.66 2.63 2.98
Travis Zajac (NJ-C)
@TB
2.15 3.01 1.68
Ryan Callahan (TB-RW)
NJ
2.62 2.85 3.46
Antoine Vermette (PHO-C)
Cgy
2.7 1.98 2.12
Mikko Koivu (MIN-C)
Cls
2.72 1.48 2.97

My pick: Cody Hodgson

I’ve actually gone back and forth on this. Do I want my exposure to the #2 Minnesota line to come from Koivu, or do I want it from Moulson? Or should I fade the situation altogether? It’s a tough predicament. So i’ll just fade it and double down on Buffalo, by grabbing exposure to the second line as well. Hodgson also plays the penalty-kill, and the Islanders give up their fair share of short handed goals.

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Mike Richards (LA-C)
Anh
2.17 2.07 2.51
David Desharnais (MON-C)
Ott
2.09 2.13 2.09
Ryane Clowe (NJ-LW)
@TB
2.03 2.6 2.46
Alex Killorn (TB-LW)
NJ
2.33 1.94 2.06
Patric Hornqvist (NSH-RW)
StL
2.49 2.26 2.8
Nick Spaling (NSH-C)
StL
1.81 3.28 1.27
R.J. Umberger (CLS-LW)
@Min
2.18 2.66 1.96
Cam Atkinson (CLS-RW)
@Min
2.4 1.62 2.39

My Pick: David Desharnais

Um, gross, talk about a wasteland. I’ll take Desharnais to get some super cheap exposure to that top line in Montreal, as the Frenchman is now centering Thomas Vanek and Max Pacioretty. 

Name Matchup 2013 FPPG Last 15 FPPG 2012 FPPG
Cal Clutterbuck (NYI-RW)
Buf
1.5 2.6 1.44
Milan Michalek (OTT-LW)
@Mon
1.79 3.44 2.76
Jay Bouwmeester (STL-D)
@Nsh
2.28 1.38 2.15
Lauri Korpikoski (PHO-LW)
Cgy
1.94 1.91 1.76
Saku Koivu (ANH-C)
@LA
1.95 1.49 1.99
Roman Josi (NSH-D)
StL
2.69 2.43 1.95
Jack Johnson (CLS-D)
@Min
2.1 2.1 2.35
Nino Niederreiter (MIN-RW)
Cls
2.09 1.2

My Pick: Milan Michalek

This one isn’t even close. Michalek has been excellent on that top line with Hemsky and Spezza. This is the biggest no-brainer ever.

And there you have it folks. Draft Street’s Pick-Em challenge is a fun way to play a different kind of hockey game. It allows you to pick and choose some matchups without purging the entire player pool. Hope to see you guys there.

Hope you enjoyed this free article. This kind of analysis is usually reserved for our Front Office Members, so get your membership today!

 

 

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