NHL Playoff Scenarios and Fantasy Hockey Implications
I was going to write up tomorrow’s NHL playoff scenarios as part of my post covering my picks for the Saturday evening slate of NHL contests on DraftKings. But I figured a standalone post with such information might garner a few clicks if I got it posted late this evening. So without further ado, here is how it breaks down for the teams that will be or could be in the Stanley Cup Playoffs when the dust settles. I’m also including some DFS implications for the evening 10-game slate where relevant.
Eastern Conference
New York Rangers: The Rangers have clinched the top seed in the East.
Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning: If the Habs win or get a loser point, they secure the top seed in the Atlantic division. If they lose in regulation and Tampa Bay wins, the Bolts would win the division. Both Montreal and Tampa Bay play evening games, so both teams will have something to play for.
Washington Capitals: With a win the Caps secure the second spot in the Metropolitan division and home ice in the first round.
New York Islanders: If the Caps lose, the Isles will have a chance to pass them in the standings and have home ice in the first round matchup between those teams. If the Isles win in regulation or overtime and the Caps lose, the Isles get home ice, even if the Caps get a loser point. If the Isles win in a shootout and the Caps get a loser point, or if the Caps lose in regulation/overtime and the Isles get a loser point, the teams will be tied in points and in the ROW column. Washington owns the second tiebreaker by virtue of accumulating six points to New York’s five in their games against each other this year, so the Caps would get home ice in either of those events.
The fantasy relevant point here is that the Caps play at 12:30 (eastern), so the Isles will know if they have anything to play for by 7:00. If they do have something to play for, their skaters are an option in fantasy given that team’s above average offense. They played last night, but so did their opponent, the Blue Jackets, so Isles will at least warrant consideration. I would not consider Jackets even if the Isles have nothing to play for.
Detroit Red Wings: Like the Islanders, the Wings will know if they have something to play for by the time their game starts. An Ottawa win and a Detroit regulation loss would bump the Wings down from third in the Atlantic division to a wild card spot. A win or a loser point secures third for Detroit in the Atlantic division. Ottawa plays at 12:30 and Detroit plays at 7:00. Even if the Wings do have something to play for, I don’t care for them in fantasy against Carolina. If they don’t have anything to play for, Carolina gets more interesting from a fantasy perspective. I’m probably going to take a look at Hurricanes anyway, but if Detroit is locked into third in the division by game time, Carolina would get a little bump.
Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins: Although Ottawa could jump Detroit in the Atlantic division, two of these three teams are likely to fill the wild card spots. All three could be eliminated with a loss, and none of them will know prior to their game whether they have been eliminated. I don’t like Boston’s matchup with Tampa Bay for fantasy purposes, but Penguins obviously warrant consideration against Buffalo.
Both Ottawa and Pittsburgh are in with a win. Ottawa is also in with a loser point. Pittsburgh is in with a loser point only if Boston loses or wins in a shootout (the details of that are explained below).
Boston is in with any kind of win and and either an Ottawa or Pittsburgh regulation loss. If Ottawa picks up a loser point, Boston cannot pass them. If Pittsburgh picks up a loser point and Boston wins in regulation or overtime, the teams would be tied in points and in the ROW column. The calculation of the second tiebreaker is a bit complicated, but Boston owns that tiebreaker by virtue of picking up three points to Pittsburgh’s two between the first game the teams played against each other in Boston and the second game the teams played against each other in Pittsburgh. Like I said, the second tiebreaker calculation is complicated. If Pittsburgh picks up a loser point and Bostn only wins in a shootout, Pittsburgh would own the ROW tiebreaker.
Western Conference
Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks and St. Louis Blues: These two are tied atop the conference, but Anaheim can clinch the top seed with a regulation or overtime win by virtue of their lead in the ROW column. They also clinch with a St. Louis loss. If Anaheim wins in a shootout and St. Louis wins in regulation or overtime, they would be tied in points and in the ROW column. They’re also tied in the second tiebreaker, which is points earned in the game played between the teams in St. Louis and the second game played between the teams in Anaheim. The next tiebreaker is just goal differential, which easily belongs to St. Louis (+45 compared to Anaheim’s +9).
Anaheim plays a late game and St. Louis plays in the afternoon, so Anaheim could have the top seed clinched before they play. If they need a win to get the #1 seed, their skaters are obviously an option in a great matchup against Arizona. Even if they don’t have anything to play for, it may be hard to fade them in that matchup. The presumption is that they might give fewer minutes to their top guys, so depth line players might warrant consideration in that situation.
Nashville Predators: The Preds are locked into second in the Central division and have home ice in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Carter Hutton got the start in this one against Dallas. The Stars are gunning to get Jamie Benn the individual scoring title, and they are a high powered offense to begin with, so the Stars are definitely an option, especially if Hutton starts for Nashville.
Chicago Blackhawks and Minnesota Wild: The Wild sit two points back of Chicago but lead in the ROW column by three, so they could pass Chicago for third in the Central division with a win and a Chicago regulation loss. The Wild play early and the Hakws play late in Colorado. The matchup for the Hawks with the Avs is a good one for fantasy, but I’d probably fade them if Minnesota loses and the Hawks secure third in the Central before they play. The Avs do not warrant fantasy consideration even if the Hawks have nothing to play for.
Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames: These two teams are going to play in Round 1, it’s just a matter of who will have home ice. Vancouver gets home ice with a win or a loser point. If Calgary wins and Vancouver loses in regulation, the teams would be tied in points and in the ROW column. The Flames own the second tiebreaker by virtue of acquiring more points in the meetings between the teams in the regular season. Calgary plays in the afternoon and Vancouver plays late, so the Canucks will know if they have anything to play for by game time. If they do, they’re obviously an option against Edmonton. If they’ve secured home ice before they play, you might have to fade them a bit. But that will admittedly be hard to do in such a good matchup against Edmonton.
Winnipeg Jets: The Jets are locked into the eighth seed.