Front Office

2014-15 Fantasy Hockey Daily Fix, December 20th

sedins land
Source: AP, Fox Sports

Through two days of doing my own NHL DFS research and writing it up here in relief of Josh Kay, I’m up 12 percent. Now I play small potatoes because my day job doesn’t allow me to play big potatoes. And 12 percent isn’t as big of a number as I would like, but I’m happy with the results for now. I’m 7-for-10 cashing in cash games (50/50s), but I haven’t hit anything big in GPPs yet. It’s just been two days, and you certainly can’t expect to hit GPPs all that often. So as long as the cash game success rate stays in the range it has started out in, I’ll be fine until I hit a GPP or two.

By the way, thank you for buying access to this. Whether you’re one of our year-long Front Office subscribers or you just bought one or two days access to our premium content to access this article, it is greatly appreciated. I spend a lot of time on this, and I appreciate you chipping in a little to make the time spent doing this not a $0/per hour gig. I genuinely want to be helpful to our readers, and so I do the due diligence so y’all don’t have to spend the time doing it. Thanks for reading.

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart. It’s a bit complicated, but the only thing you really need to know is that the far right column is the ‘value’ column. It’s basically a number showing how much higher or lower above average a player’s schedule-adjusted projection is compared to his price.

All prices are from DraftKings, and this write up is for DK contests that start at 7:00 ET, so the afternoon Arizona-Los Angeles game is not included.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news tomorrow afternoon, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

Per my matchup statistic, which is a mix of Corsi against and save percentage, the best matchups today belong to Vancouver (against Calgary) and Colorado (against Buffalo).

Starting with Vancouver, the Sedin twins both grade out as elite values today. Henrik Sedin ($3,800, C) and Daniel Sedin ($5,100, W) obviously make up two-thirds of Vancouver’s first line and play on the top power play unit together. They’re my favorite stack of the day. The other winger on that first line, Radim Vrbata ($6,000, W), leads the team in goals and plays point on the top PP unit. I don’t always stack a complete line together, but I’m going to with Vancouver tonight.

The best value grade of the day among centers belongs to the center of Vancouver’s second line, Nick Bonino ($4,500, C). His left-winger, Chris Higgins ($3,900, W), grades out as a damn near elite value on the wing and plays on the second PP unit with Bonino. Yannick Weber ($2,500, D) plays the point on the second PP unit with them. At the minimum price, Weber grades out as a great value. Throw him in a D slot if you go with the cheaper second line stack.

Colorado draws the woeful Sabres who, surprisingly, are not the best matchup per my stat. But they are the third best matchup and among the group of four teams that are separated from the rest of the pack in my matchup stat. That’s the main reason why Alex Tanguay ($2,800, W) grades out as the top value of the day at any position. Tanguay plays on the top line with Matt Duchene ($5,400, C) and Jarome Iginla ($4,900, W). Tanguay and Iginla play on the first PP unit together as well, but Duchene centers the second PP unit. I prefer to stack guys who play on a line and on the power play together, but I also like to have the center of a line be a part of any stack. For that reason, I’ll also be stacking this entire top line together as well.

I also like Nathan MacKinnon ($5,900, C), but he plays on the second PP unit while his line mates play on the top unit. He’s still a good cash game option even though I don’t love the idea of stacking his line. His line mates, Ryan O’Reilly ($4,600, W) and Gabriel Landeskog ($6,500, W), are good cash play games as well.

Another good but not quite great matchup belongs to Tampa Bay against the Islanders. I like a couple of mini-stacks for the Lightning. You have to spend big somewhere, and you could certainly do worse than a mini-stack of Steven Stamkos ($8,000, C) and his right-winger on their top line, Ryan Callahan ($5,100, C). That pair also plays on the top PP unit together. If you’d like a cheaper mini-stack, Ondrej Palat ($4,500, W) grades out as a really great value among wingers. His center, Valtteri Filppula ($4,500, C), plays on the first PP unit with Stamkos while Palat plays on the second unit. But I’m fine stacking Palat and Filppula.

I also really like Marian Hossa ($5,200, W) today. He’s got an above average matchup against Columbus, but he’s underpriced even if you don’t consider matchup at all. He may just be a good cash game play, but if you wanted to stack him with someone, stack him with his first line center, Jonathan Toews ($6,000, C).

If you’re looking for a contrarion mini-stack that isn’t likely to have a high ownership percentage in GPPs, I like Anders Lee ($3,300, C) and Ryan Strome ($4,200, C) who play on the Islander third line and second PP unit together. With Ben Bishop out for Tampa Bay, Lee and Strome will be shooting pucks at either 39 year-old Evgeni Nabakov or recent call-up Andrei Vasilevskiy.

And just quickly, New Jersey’s Eric Gelinas ($3,400, D) grades out as a very good value among defensemen today. He plays on Jersey’s second PP unit along with their first line center, Adam Henrique ($4,400, C), who also grades out as an above average value. Jaromir Jagr ($4,700, W) plays on the first line with Henrique as well as the second PP unit. Jagr doesn’t grade out as great value, but he does grade out above average.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

1. Henrik Sedin – $3,800 – Vancouver Canucks
2. Matt Duchene – $5,400 – Colorado Avalanche
3. Nick Bonino – $4,500 – Vancouver Canucks
4. Steven Stamkos – $8,000 – Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Valtteri Filppula – $4,500 – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Nathan MacKinnon – $5,900 – Colorado Avalanche
7. Joe Pavelski – $7,700 – San Jose Sharks

Winger

1. Daniel Sedin – $5,100 – Vancouver Canucks
2. Alex Tanguay – $2,800 – Colorado Avalance
3. Ryan Callahan – $5,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Radim Vrbata – $6,000 – Vancouver Canucks
5. Jarome Iginla – $4,900 – Colorado Avalanche
6. Marian Hossa – $5,200 – Chicago Blackhawks
7. Chris Higgins – $3,900 – Vancouver Canucks
8. Jakub Voracek – $6,900 – Philadelphia Flyers
9. Ondrej Palat – $4,500 – Tampa Bay Lightning

Defense

1. Brent Burns – $6,000 – San Jose Sharks
2. Yannick Weber – $2,500 – Vancouver Canucks
3. Dan Boyle – $3,300 – New York Rangers
4. Eric Gelinas – $3,400 – New Jersey Devils
5. Victor Hedman – $5,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Mark Giordano – $6,100 – Calgary Flames

Goalie

1. Braden Holtby – $7,200 – Washington Capitals
2. Cory Schneider – $7,200 – New Jersey Devils
3. Darcy Kuemper – $6,600 – Minnesota Wild
4. Corey Crawford – $8,600 – Chicago Blackhawks

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