The NHL returns today after a three day break with a massive slate of 13 games. Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zDIFF’ is the difference between the projection z-score and the salary z-score. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And the ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. zDIFF is the main thing we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

As is so often the case, let’s start with the team playing Edmonton. Only Minnesota has a lower team save percentage than the Oil, and the Oilers rank 22nd in Corsi against at even strength. So they’re not the worst possession team in the league, but they are below average, which isn’t good if you’re arguably the worst goaltending team in the league.

Edmonton will be fanning the (Calgary) Flames tonight, and the tailspin the Flames are in should slow for at least another day. The clear stack choice is Calgary’s top line of Markus Granlund ($2,700, C), Jiri Hudler ($5,200, W) and John Gaudreau ($5,400, W). Hudler and Gaudreau are 1-2 among Calgary forwards in scoring, and they also play together on the first power play unit. Their center, Granlund, only has 12 points on the year, but he grades out as the best value at the center position today. I normally like to have a center in any stack, but Granlund does not get any power play time, so I’m fine if you just want to use the wingers. Whether you use Granlund or not, add Mark Giordano ($6,800, C) to whatever combo of forwards you use. Giordano leads the team in scoring and leads all NHL defensemen in scoring by a margin of six points.

Calgary is a pretty favorable matchup for opposing skaters as well, so this could be a high scoring affair. Edmonton’s first and second lines are both options, but choosing between the two is tough. The second line wingers actually grade out as better values than the guys on the top line, but the second line wingers play on different power play units, and their center doesn’t see any power play time at all. That said I’m good with stacking Jordan Eberle ($4,600, W) and David Perron ($4,000, W). A big part of that is the fact that I think the top line will probably see a healthy amount of Calgary’s top D pair, Giordano and T.J. Brodie. Giordano and Brodie are the only two of Calgary’s D-men that are above average in terms of possession, and they both rank top 30 in the league in Relative Corsi. Surely they’ll matchup with Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins most of the day, making the second line the better value play.

Outside of the Calgary-Edmonton game, Anaheim has the best matchup of the day against Arizona who is only slightly better than Edmonton in both Corsi Against and save percentage. The (Mighty) Duck with the best value grade for the day is Matt Beleskey ($4,200, W) who plays on the second line with Ryan Kesler ($6,300, C). That pair doesn’t play together on the power play, but none of the Duck lines really stay together on the power play. I also really like Sami Vatanen ($4,800, D) as he grades out as the second best D-man value of the day. You can stack him with Beleskey/Kesler if you’d like, but it’s not necessary.

It’s crazy that there are three teams that I think are a better matchup for opposing skaters than the Sabres, but here we are discussing the Sabers fourth. However, I may like an Islanders stack better than any other today. The two Islander forwards with by far the best per-game projection are John Tavares ($6,200, C) and Kyle Okposo ($6,500, W). That pair plays on the first line and top power play unit together. They’re joined on the top PP unit by the top defenseman value of the day, Nick Leddy ($3,100, D). I imagine this is the stack to which I will have the most exposure.

The last team with a well above average matchup is St. Louis against my beloved, but terribly disappointing, Dallas Stars. The Stars are inching closer to average in terms of possession, but they’re still a bit below average in that department, and only a handful of teams are getting worse goaltending than Dallas. There are four Blues who have the combination of a healthy per-game projection and a good value grade, but only two of those four play together on the same line. David Backes ($5,500, C) centers the top line with Alex Steen ($6,600, W) on his left wing. That pair also plays on the top PP unit together. If you’d like to make that more than a mini-stack, you could add the other guy on the top line, T.J. Oshie ($5,000, C) or the defenseman on the top PP unit, Kevin Shattenkirk ($6,200, D). But adding a third man to that stack isn’t a must. It’s just something you can do if it fits the lineup.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

Winger

Defense

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.