Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation for the tonight’s late slate as well as the best teams from which to pick hitters. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, how many runs per game his opponent is projected to score and the average fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game. The columns labeled ‘z’ will tell you far above or below average the pitcher’s salary or projection is. There is also a column labeled value that is the difference between the pitcher’s projection z-score and salary z-score. The higher the number the better.

As mentioned above, this analysis will only encompass the night slate. If you wish to view our projections on pitchers available in the early slate, please use the table above or click here.

The far and away best pitcher of the night slate is Felix Hernandez ($11,200). King Felix carries the highest price tag, but is also pitching in an extreme pitcher’s park and his opponent, the Rangers, have a team total of only 3. He possesses an above average K/9 and a great GB% that only solidifies his spot atop the list of pitchers today. The problem will be trying to fit his salary in with a solid offense and a second pitcher. Due to the salary he carries, I think he makes for an excellent GPP play and should be the top pitcher for cash games.

The reason I think you can pay up for King Felix is because of the depressed price tag that Jacob deGrom carries ($8,400). deGrom is underpriced for his ability and the matchup and our model sees him as one of the best values of the night slate. deGrom has seen a drop in his K% and GB% this year, but I suspect we’ll begin to see in uptick in both of them. He’s pitching today in a great pitcher’s park against a right-handed heavy lineup. The Marlins will put together some solid left-handed bats at the top and Giancarlo Stanton is heating up, but I still wouldn’t shy away from deGrom too much in cash games. My guess is that he’ll be heavily owned for cash games, but you might be able to gain an edge by laying off of him in GPPs.

If you’re looking to differentiate in GPPs, I suggest taking a look at Jake Odorizzi.

Odorizzi has been excellent so far this year and has great strikeout potential in a matchup that draws Yankees sluggers away from Yankee Stadium.

Another great GPP option that is also cash game viable is Zack Grienke. Grienke will face the Colorado Rockies and their plethora of left-handed bats, but he’ll do so away from Coors Field. Much like Odorizzi, Grienke has been phenomenal this season and has great strikeout upside every time he takes the mound. I would be on board with using Grienke has a number one or two in cash games and a great option in tournaments.

So far, weather appears to only be a factor in the game between the Athletics and Royals in Kansas City. I’m not planning on using anyone from this game anyway as Kaufmann Stadium doesn’t scream potential by any means. However, due to his strikeout potential and depressed price, Yordano Ventura could make for a GPP option assuming the weather is safe.

Stack Options

There really only appears to be one ballpark to try and take advantage of tonight as most of the games are in less than ideal hitter environments. A pair of left-handers, Dallas Keuchel and CJ Wilson, are taking the mound at Minute Maid Park tonight to face a pair of right-hand dominant lineups. Minute Maid Park was in the top half of the league last year in homeruns for right-handers, according to FanGraphs park factors by handedness. There is a lot of GPP and cash game upside for both of these teams tonight. Mike Trout ($5,200) has a manageable price tonight and projects as one of our models best hitters. He’s joined by other good values at the top of the order, Albert Pujols ($4,200) and Erick Aybar ($3,400). CJ Cron ($3,200) and David Freese ($4,400) also carry suitable price tags, but are more realistic tournament targets.

The team with the higher team total in this game is actually the Astros, who have a team total of 4. George Springer ($4,200) and Chris Carter ($4,000) possess enormous upside and make for fabulous tournament plays. Their short friend, Jose Altuve ($4,900) mashes left-handed pitching and although his price is high, he makes for a great tournament and cash game play. If you’re looking to piggy-back on this game, Jed Lowrie ($3,700) will be hitting from the right-side, where he’s been better in his career (career .160 ISO and .348 wOBA against southpaws).

Safeco Field is less than an ideal option for hitters, but the Mariners bats will get to face the inept Colby Lewis tonight. I like all of their left-handed bats for both cash games and as a contrarian stack for GPPs. Safeco Field is actually a tad bit better for homeruns from left-handers so Robinson Cano ($4,500) and Kyle Seager ($4,300) carry just a tad more GPP upside than they typically would. Seth Smith ($3,900) hasn’t had a hit in some time, but will possess the platoon advantage tonight and could be a decent GPP play.

The Brewers are away from Miller Park but are a solid fit in our model today and should make for a contrarian GPP stack against the Pirates left-hander Jeff Locke. PNC Park is a favorable place for pitchers, but the Brewers right-handers possess enough boom to make them a worthy stack. All the right-handed bats near the top of the order are in play, despite the loss of Carlos Gomez.

All other hitter projections can be found in the sheet below, or by clicking here.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Jonathan Lucroy – $3,900 – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Evan Gattis – $4,100 – Houston Astros
3. Buster Posey – $4,200 – San Francisco Giants (safe play for affordable price)

First Base

1. Albert Pujols – $4,200 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Chris Carter – $4,000 – Houston Astros (gpp preferred)
3. Lucas Duda – $4,300 – New York Mets

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano – $4,500 – Seattle Mariners
2. Jose Altuve – $4,900 – Houston Astros
3. Johnny Giovatella- $2,700 – Los Angeles Angels

Third Base

1. Kyle Seager – $4,200 – Seattle Mariners
2. Aramis Ramirez – $3,500 – Milwaukee Brewers
3. David Freese – $4,400 – Los Angeles Angels 

Shortstop

1. Erick Aybar – $3,400 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Jed Lowrie – $3,500 – Houston Astros
3. Jean Segura – $3,800 – Milwaukee Brewers (preferred if hitting 1-6)
4. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,500 – Colorado Rockies (GPP)

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,200 – Los Angeles Angels
2. George Springer – $4,200 – Houston Astros
3. Ryan Braun – $4,200 – Milwaukee Brewers
4. Nelson Cruz – $4,500 – Seattle Mariners
5. Chris Carter – $4,000 – Houston Astros (also OF eligible, GPP preferred)

Starting Pitcher

1. Felix Hernandez- $11,200 – Seattle Mariners
2. Jacob deGrom – $8,400 – New York Mets
3. Zack Grienke -$9,600 – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Jake Odorizzi – $7,600 – Tampa Bay Rays
5. Yordano Ventura – $7,800 – Kansas City Royals (weather risk, GPP only)