Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 25, 2015
Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Saturday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings. There is an early seven-game slate and an evening eight-game slate. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.
Pitching Perspective
Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.
If you want to pay up for a pitcher today, go with Stephen Strasburg ($10,000) or Adam Wainwright ($9,400) who are available in the afternoon and evening slates, respectively. I don’t suppose it will take much effort to talk you into those two, but it might take a bit more effort to talk you out of Matt Harvey ($10,300) in favor of those two. The projections think more of Strasburg/Wainwright in a vacuum, but once you factor in opponent and ballpark, the gap becomes even more pronounced. With Harvey being the most expensive pitcher of the trio, he’s easy for me to pass on.
If you’re playing an all day-slate and deciding between Stras and Waino, give me the cheaper guy, who happens to be Waino on DK. Wainwright is also facing the Brewers who have been the second best matchup for pitchers to date. Other high priced pitchers to avoid include Jake Arrieta ($9,300) and Brandon McCarthy ($8,800). I’m generally a fan of McCarthy and would presumably love him in Petco, but DK has his priced jacked up because of the ballpark, so I’ll pass.
Among the mid-price options, there are several good options in the evening slate, but you may have to go expensive or cheap at pitcher in the afternoon slate. The afternoon pitchers in the mid-price range are Trevor Bauer ($7,800) and Edinson Volquez ($7,200). Bauer has too tough of a matchup with Detroit, and Volquez has a below average projection but an above average price tag. In the evening slate, Ian Kennedy ($8,000) looks like a value. He’ll get the Petco bump, but he hasn’t seen a corrsponding bump in price because of his matchup with the Dodgers and because this is his first start since he was injured on April 10. Our model says that the DK pricing model is being too conservative with Kennedy’s price. He may be more of a GPP play as opposed to cash games, but there is some value there.
If you want a safer play in this price range, Shelby Miller ($7,300) could be your guy against the Phillies, the third best matchup for pitchers to date. I say safer, but Miller hasn’t been that good so far this year despite his 1.69 ERA. His strikeout rate is essentially right at the reduced rate it fell to last year, and his walk rate is in the double digits. He’s also yet to use his change that he hardly used last year, so he’s rolling with a few versions of a fastball and a curve. But at the end of the day, it’s a matchup with the Phillies at a decent price point. That said, Miller may also be more of a GPP play and not the safer option I originally thought he might be. I’d prefer Kennedy in a cash game.
If you want to go cheap with a pitcher, Justin Masterson ($6,300) has the best projection of anyone with a below average price tag. He’s undeniably risky with a very high walk rate and a strikeout rate that’s been a little fluky so far. But everyone in this range is risky. Hell, the guys in the mid-price range are pretty easy to find risk in. But the price is too low on Masterson as our modely says he should be priced colser to $7,000.
Masterson is the cheap option for the evening slate, and in the afternoon slate I’d roll the dice with Daniel Norris ($5,900). Like several other pitchers mentioned above, Norris has struggled with his control early in the season. But I’m willing to take on the risk because he’s in a good situation today. He’ll face the Rays who have been one of the better matchups for pitchers so far, and the game is in Tampa, which is a pitcher-friendly park.
Stack Options
As always we must start with the game in Colorado, where the Rockies will again host the Giants. Yesterday I preferred stacking Giants against a right-handed starter, but with lefty Jorge de la Rosa on the hill today, it’s a bit harder to go with Giants as the top of their order is typically comprised of lefties. That said, Buster Posey ($4,600, 1B/C) is an obvious play against a bad left-handed starter in that park. It’s just that it’s hard to stack him with anyone. If anything, I’d recommend a mini-stack with the switch-hitting Angel Pagan ($4,500, OF). Matt Duffy ($3,600, 2B/SS) is a nice salary relief option if he plays today. He hit second last time the Giants faced a lefty, so Duffy/Posey/Pagan may be an option. I really hope Duffy plays because I don’t love much else at shortstop.
On the other side of that game, I like Colorado left-handers against Tim Hudson. That includes Carlos Gonzalez ($4,300, OF), Corey Dickerson ($4,800, OF), Justin Morneau ($3,900) and Charlie Blackmon ($4,400, OF) with Gonzalez/Dickerson/Morneau being the three I prefer. But they may be too separated in the lineup for a plausible stack, so Blackmon could also be used if it makes sense.
Away from the Rocky Mountains, the Angels, Mariners and Royals catch my eye. Starting with LA, I’ll happily pay up for Mike Trout ($5,200) against Colby Lewis today. Trout was the only Angel I ended up using, but I would have no problem stacking him with Kole Calhoun ($4,500, OF) and Albert Pujols ($4,100, 1B).
From the Mariners, Robinson Cano ($4,400, 2B) is one of the few second basemen I have any interest in today. He has an excellent matchup against Colby Lewis as do fellow left-handers Kyle Seager ($3,900, 3B) and Dustin Ackley ($3,200, OF). That trio should hit 3/5/6.
And then the Royals have a great matchup against John Danks. Admittedly, a Royals stack didn’t make its way on to my lineup page, but Danks easily has the worst projection of the day for any pitcher. I actually like what I expect to be the bottom half of that order starting with Kendrys Morales ($4,000, 1B) along with Alex Gordon ($4,400, OF) and Salvador Perez ($4,000, C). They should hit 5/6/7. Lorenzo Cain ($4,600, OF) could also be paired with them from the three-hole, or you could go with Paulo Orlando ($2,000, OF) in the eight-hole for salary relief.
You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Buster Posey – $4,600 – San Francisco Giants
- Salvador Perez – $4,000 – Kansas City Royals
- Carlos Santana – $4,600 – Cleveland Indians
- Kevin Plawecki – $2,700 – New York Mets
First Base
- Justin Morneau – $3,900 – Colorado Rockies
- Chris Davis – $4,300 – Baltimore Orioles
- Miguel Cabrera – $4,900 – Detroit Tigers
- Carlos Santana – $4,600 – Cleveland Indians
Second Base
- Robinson Cano – $4,400 – Seattle Mariners
- Dustin Pedroia – $4,100 – Boston Red Sox
- Micah Johnson – $2,800 – Chicago White Sox
Third Base
- Jimmy Paredes – $2,000 – Baltimore Orioles
- Chris Davis – $4,300 – Baltimore Orioles
- Kyle Seager – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners
- Kris Bryant – $4,700 – Chicago Cubs
- Miguel Cabrera – $4,900 – Detroit Tigers
Shortstop
- Matt Duffy – $3,600 – San Francisco Giants
- Troy Tulowitzki – $5,800 – Colorado Rockies
- Billy Hamilton – $4,200 – Cincinnati Reds
- Jose Ramirez – $3,400 – Cleveland Indians
- Erick Aybar – $3,400 – Los Angeles Angels
Outfield
- Mike Trout – $5,200 – Los Angeles Angels
- Carlos Gonzalez – $4,300 – Colorado Rockies
- Jimmy Paredes – $2,000 – Baltimore Orioles
- Alex Gordon – $4,400 – Kansas City Royals
- Corey Dickerson – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies
- Hanley Ramirez – $4,900 – Boston Red Sox
- Mookie Betts – $4,500 – Boston Red Sox
- Andrew McCutchen – $5,300 – Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitcher
- Adam Wainwright – $9,400 – St. Louis Cardinals
- Stephen Strasburg – $10,000 – Washington Nationals
- Ian Kennedy – $8,000 – San Diego Padres
- Shelby Miller – $7,400 – Atlanta Braves
- Justin Masterson – $6,300 – Boston Red Sox
- Daniel Norris – $5,900 – Toronto Blue Jays