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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 30, 2015

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s six-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

With such a short slate, the pitching options are pretty thin. Chris Sale ($11,300), Stephen Strasburg ($10,400) and Jacob deGrom ($9,100) are the elite options, and Shelby Miller ($7,400) stands outs as a good mid-price option. Miller worries me a bit because he’s been striking batters out at a below average rate since last season started, and his walk rate has been below average as well. But our model says his price is lower than it should be, and he grades out as the best value of the day.

As for the elite options, Strasburg has the toughest matchup of the three and slightly worse value grade, so he’s the one I’d kick out. As for Sale/deGrom, I prefer deGrom just because he’s cheaper, but go with Sale if you can afford it.

If you want to get risky with a cheap pitcher, I’m having a hard time deciding between Danny Duffy ($6,500) and Trevor May ($5,800). They’re both facing teams mentioned in the stacks section below with Duffy facing the Tigers and May facing the White Sox. The White Sox are undeniably the better matchup, and May has the better xFIP so far this year by a decent margin, so I’m leaning towards May.

Stack Options

Detroit and Toronto are usually stack candidates, and they’re definitely in the conversation today.

Toronto seems like the team that may be most heavily owned today against T.J. House and the Indians. House’s velocity has been down early this year, and he has been struh-guh-ling. It’s been ugly, and the Blue Jays should be able to do some damage. My hope is that the “chance of rain” in that game scares some people away, but I doubt it will, especially given this being just a six-game slate. The Blue Jays to go with for a big stack are the presumed top five in the order: Devon Travis ($3,600, 2B), Josh Donaldson ($5,700, 3B), Jose Bautista ($5,300, OF), Edwin Encarnacion ($4,500, 1B) and Russell Martin ($4,100, C). Avoid Donaldson in cash games as his price tag is just too high. Using a mini-stack of two or three other Jays makes sense in cash games.

As for the Tigers, two through six is who you want there if you like that stack: Ian Kinsler ($4,300, 2B), Miguel Cabrera ($5,000, 1B/3B), Victor Martinez ($4,300, 1B), J.D. Martinez ($4,300, OF) and Yoenis Cespedes ($4,800, OF). I prefer the Jays to the Tigers as a stack, and no Tigers are priced so well that I think they’re obvious cash game plays.

Stacks that might be a bit less owned are the White Sox and the Royals. From a value perspective, the White Sox look like the better play. I’d start a stack with their nine hitter, Micah Johson ($2,800, 2B), and go back through to the five hitter, Avisail Garcia ($4,400, OF) for a big stack. You’ll have to choose between first basemen as Jose Abreu ($5,600, 1B) and Adam Laroche ($3,700, 1B) are both only eligible at that position. Abreu is obviously a stud, but Laroche’s price is pretty attractive. That stack will also include Adam Eaton ($3,900, OF) and Melky Cabrera ($4,300, OF). Johnson, Eaton, Cabrera and Laroche all have very good prices for cash games. Using them should also allow you to afford two of the more expensive pitchers.

If you prefer the Royals or think they’re more of the contrarion play, I’d go with four of the three through seven hitters in the lineup (you’ll have to choose between first basemen): Lorenzo Cain ($4,300, OF), Eric Hosmer ($4,300, 1B), Kendrys Morales ($4,200, 1B), Alex Gordon ($4,900, OF) and Salvador Perez ($3,700, C).

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

  1. Carlos Santana – $4,500 – Cleveland Indians
  2. Russell Martin – $4,100 – Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Salvador Perez – $3,700 – Kansas City Royals

First Base

  1. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,500 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Adam Laroche – $3,700 – Chicago White Sox
  3. Joey Votto – $4,600 – Cincinnati Reds

Second Base

  1. Jose Altuve – $4,800 – Houston Astros
  2. Robinson Cano – $4,600 – Seattle Mariners
  3. Micah Johnson – $2,800 – Chicago White Sox

Third Base

  1. Kyle Seager – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners
  2. Miguel Cabrera – $5,000 – Detroit Tigers
  3. Josh Donaldson – $5,700 – Toronto Blue Jays

Shortstop

  1. Brad Miller – $3,500 – Seattle Mariners
  2. Jose Ramirez – $3,200 – Cleveland Indians
  3. Alexei Ramirez – $4,100 – Chicago White Sox

Outfield

  1. Jose Bautista – $5,300 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Melky Cabrera – $4,300 – Chicago White Sox
  3. Adam Eaton – $3,900 – Chicago White Sox
  4. George Springer – $5,200 – Houston Astros
  5. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,800 – Detroit Tigers
  6. Alex Gordon – $4,900 – Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitcher

  1. Shelby Miller – $7,400 – St. Louis Cardinals
  2. Jacob deGrom – $9,100 – New York Mets
  3. Chris Sale – $11,300 – Chicago White Sox
  4. Trevor May – $5,800 – Minnesota Twins

*Rankings are price sensitive

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