Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 13, 2015
Happy Friday eve! Prepare for the last day of your week by taking a crack at MLB DFS tonight on DraftKings. Below I’ve included a discussion on the pitching options, the best teams to stack from and an individual set of player rankings for tonight’s five-game slate.
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Forecast
All clear!
Pitching Perspective
Oh boy, short slates are always fun. This one only has five games, leaving us with only ten pitchers to choose from. The top options tonight are in the same game in St. Louis featuring the Cardinals and the Pirates. Francisco Liriano and Lance Lynn will battle it out in the lowest Vegas total game of the slate.
Both Liriano and Lynn provide you with a similar upside in terms of strikeouts and they both should be in decent spots in terms of run prevention tonight. Lynn has quietly been a steady force for the Cardinals this year, striking out over 9.5 hitters per nine innings and slightly lowering his walk rate.
Liriano provides a similar situation, with perhaps a little more upside against a better lineup. He is striking out more than ten hitters per nine innings this season and has increased his ground ball rate, pitching to a 2.87 xFIP. Both of these arms are expensive but with reason on such a short slate. You’re going to need at least one in a cash game.
Don’t be afraid to dip your toe in the water and risk rostering Mat Latos tonight against the hapless Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are experiencing a huge negative park shift on the road and are big dogs according to Vegas. They’re implied run total is hovering around 2.9 runs and Latos has an incredibly accessible salary. After starting the year on such a bleak note, Latos has gotten much better pitching to a decent K/9 (7.32) and 3.73 xFIP. The price is right.
Last but not least, if you wish to tempt the water in cash games or tournaments, do so with Stephen Strasburg and Trevor Bauer. Both of these guys are quite similar, high upside flamethrowers, both with the ability to blow up in your face. Strasburg is facing a fairly tough Giants lineup but one in a great pitchers park. Bauer on the other hand gets the Yankees away from Yankee Stadium, a matchup he could thrive in.
Stack Options
A five game slate with decent pitching options? That means not many stacks to choose from today.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers – With not many options today, I’m going to be picking on the weakest link (sorry Keyvious, that’s you). The Dodgers have flamed out a little bit as an opposing force against right-handers, but they still have plenty of weapons to try and attack with. Their implied run total is around 4.1 (again not a screaming stack, but one of the better ones for today). Look to guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Yasmani Grandal as staples for cash games.
2. Los Angeles Angels – Again, this is the product of picking on a weak link in Jeremy Guthrie. The Angels don’t send up a ton of left-handers to mash him around, but they have enough pieces to warrant a small stack. Shane Victorino, Kole Calhoun and Erick Aybar will provide you with a lot of value to fit Mike Trout and Albert Pujols against an extreme flyball pitcher who is prone to giving up home runs.
3. Washington Nationals – The Nats are almost back to full health, and they need to get the ball rolling in order to make the playoffs. Vogelsong is an extreme flyball pitcher who is aided by a big ball park, but a spacious one at that. There is a lot of room for runs here, and even though the implied run total for the team is sitting at 3.7 runs, I think we’ll see more.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Yasmani Grandal -$4,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Wilson Ramos -$2,900 – Washington Nationals
3. Brian McCann -$3,700 – New York Yankees
First Basemen
1. Adrian Gonzalez -$5,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Joey Votto -$4,200 – Cincinnati Reds
3. Ryan Zimmerman -$3,700 – Washington Nationals
Second Basemen
1. Anthony Rendon -$3,100 – Washington Nationals
2. Ben Zobrist -$3,800 – Kansas City Royals
3. Jose Ramirez -$3,100 – Cleveland Indians
Third Basemen
1. Todd Frazier -$4,100 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Mike Moustakas -$3,400 – Kansas City Royals
3. Yunel Escobar -$3,400 – Washington Nationals
Shortstops
1. Kike Hernandez -$2,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Erick Aybar -$3,200 – Los Angeles Angels
3. Ian Desmond- $3,500 – Washington Nationals
Outfield
1. Mike Trout -$5,500 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Kole Calhoun -$4,100 – Los Angeles Angels
3. Bryce Harper -$5,200 – Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers
1. Lance Lynn -$10,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Francisco Liriano -$11,000 – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Mat Latos -$7,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Stephen Strasburg -$10,900 – Washington Nationals
5. Trevor Bauer -$9,800 – Cleveland Indians