Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: August 23, 2015
Another week of baseball has passed us by, and soon enough, we’ll be crowning a champion (hopefully the Cubbies!). Until then though, try and take advantage of every last drop of baseball and MLB DFS. Remember, if you haven’t signed up at DraftKings, do so here!
As usual, below I’ve included a discussion on today’s pitching options as well as the best teams to stack from and a set of individual player rankings.
Forecast
Just some clouds today, no threat to any games!
Pitching Perspective
Happy Kershaw Day! I’m probably a too excited for Kershaw day, and more so than I should be because for our intents and purposes in DFS, he has become really hard to play thanks to his price tag. Today he sports a tag just shy of $15,000 and has a matchup with a pretty tough Astros lineup. With that being said, he’s still Clayton Kershaw, and he’s an option on any day given his strikeout potential and his run prevention skills. Kershaw laughed in the face of any of those who might have signaled regression earlier in this season, as he’s been fantastic posting a 2.14 xFIP while sitting down nearly 11.5 hitters per nine innings. He’s suitable for any game type, but preferred for GPPs.
After Kershaw, there is a pretty wide drop in salary to the next best starter today – Michael Wacha at San Diego. Wacha doesn’t rack up the strike outs like others, but his run prevention skills and voodoo magic are very high (as a result of the Cardinals insane “luck”). He’s not been quite as good as his ERA suggests, but in a good park against a weak team, he should have no problems making his way through their lineup. He’s still dialing up nearly 50% groundballs, and doesn’t issue many free passes. Couple that with the fact that Wacha is a strong favorite, and the Padres have an implied run total nearing three, and you’ll understand why he’s a strong option today.
Dipping lower on the salary totem pole you’ll find Francisco Liriano and Jordan Zimmermann. Much like Wacha and Kershaw both of these arms stick out as strong favorites today pitching at home. Liriano will be squaring off with the San Francisco Giants in the Sunday Night Baseball game, looking for an important win against a team still fighting for a playoff spot. The Giants offense is made up of pesky hitters that play in a fairly deep lineup that sits in the top ten in the league in terms of wOBA and wRC+. Even so, Vegas has their implied run total around three runs for their matchup with Liriano tonight, which should be a tough one. Liriano always has the risk for implosion, but I like his chances tonight using a solid ground ball rate, and a K/9 around ten to rack up plenty of fantasy points. It’ll be tough waiting to use him all day, but I’m sure you’ll enjoy the reward.
Zimmermann on the other hand has been so-so in the last year of his contract in Washington. He’s pitched to a 3.84 xFIP, up nearly .75 since the end of last season, while having his strikeout numbers dip down to seven K’s per nine innings. The numbers drop is concerning, but taking advantage of this matchup is doing so because of the weak nature of the Brewers lineup, and the negative park shift that comes with it. Zimmermann has an accessible price tag, and should be considered an option today if you need to go cheaper to gain exposure to Coors Field.
Last but not least, look towards Kevin Gausman as an even cheaper, but solid option today against the Minnesota Twins. Following the trend of the arms above, Gausman is a big favorite at home today against a Twins lineup that is better suited against left-handed pitching. Gausman has been serviceable this season, and has plenty of strikeout potential to go with incredible stuff. The best thing about him is he’s so cheap that he’ll allow you to grab a top arm and plenty of notable bats.
Stack Options
- Coors Field – I’m sure you’ve seen the explosions that have been coming out of Coors Field the last few days, and hopefully you’ve taken advantage of it and reaped great rewards. The same goes for today, load ’em up. The matchup between David Hale and Logan Verrett is sure to be a fun one for hitters.
- Baltimore Orioles – I put these guys in here nearly every day, but the thinking is the same. They’ll most likely be an underowned, but super valuable tournament stack against Mike Pelfrey at home today. The digs on Pelfrey are always the same – he allows way too much contact, and he’s yielding a line drive rate almost three percentage points higher than last year, and higher than his career average at 21.4%. Take advantage of all that Baltimore has to offer at the top, and use the value of Gerrardo Parra and Matt Wieters to complement the studs.
- Chicago Cubs – The wind has been howling out at Wrigley and it’s going to be doing the same today. The Cubs offense packs a really powerful punch and has the potential to blast plenty of long balls in a day (they hit four yesterday). Their opposing pitcher today – Matt Wisler – is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and one that has had trouble with the home run already this season. Also throw in that he’s giving up hard contact 28.3% of the time, and I like my Cubbies as a contrarian stack option to Coors Field.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Kyle Schwarber -$4,700 – Chicago Cubs
- Nick Hundley -$4,000 – Colorado Rockies
- Travis d’Arnaud -$4,900 – New York Mets
First Basemen
- Ben Paulsen -$3,400 – Colorado Rockies
- Anthony Rizzo -$5,200 – Chicago Cubs
- Chris Davis -$5,100 – Baltimore Orioles
Second Basemen
- Chris Coghlan-$3,400 – Chicago Cubs
- Wilmer Flores -$3,800 – New York Mets
- Cesar Hernandez -$3,200 – Philadelphia Phillies
Shortstops
- Jose Reyes -$4,900 – Colorado Rockies
- Troy Tulowitzki -$3,500 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Addison Russell -$3,200 – Chicago Cubs
Third Basemen
- Nolan Arenado -$5,300 – Colorado Rockies
- Daniel Murphy -$4,500 – New York Mets
- Manny Machado -$5,000 – Baltimore Orioles
- Kris Bryant -$4,700 – Chicago Cubs
Outfield
- Carlos Gonzalez -$5,400 – Colorado Rockies
- Curtis Granderson -$5,100 – New York Mets
- Charlie Blackmon -$5,000 – Colorado Rockies
- Gerrardo Parra -$4,600 – Baltimore Orioles
- Ender Inciarte -$3,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers
- Clayton Kershaw -$14,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Michael Wacha -$11,000 – St. Louis Cardinals
- Francisco Liriano -$10,300 – Pittsburgh Pirates
- Jordan Zimmermann -$8,900 – Washington Nationals
- Kevin Gausman -$5,100 – Baltimore Orioles
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