Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

We’ve got a full slate of games today, but we don’t have a full compliment of good pitching options. There are five pitchers priced $9,500 or higher, which is a few shy of the number that are normally that expensive, and 22 of today’s 30 starters are priced $7,500 or below, which is an abnormal number of cheap pitchers.

The other problem is that of the five expensive guys, three are starters that my model consistently likes less than the DK pricing model, Jake Arrieta, Dallas Keuchel and Jaime Garcia. On top of my model not liking them to begin with Arrieta and Keuchel have downright bad matchups, and Garcia’s matchup is just average. They’re all vastly overpriced according to my model, and I can’t bring myself to use any of them.

That leaves us with Noah Syndergaard ($10,900) and Stephen Strasburg ($10,000) in the expensive price range. Of the two, my model prefers Strasburg both in terms of projection and value, so he’s who I would pay up for today should you choose to spend on a pitcher. He has a good-not-great matchup with the Padres, so the matchup certainly isn’t prohibitive. And his recent performance won’t scare you off either as he has been fantastic since returning to the rotation. In his three starts back from injury he has allowed three earned runs with 25 strikeouts compared to just two walks in 20 innings of work.

Moving down a tier to the mid-price range ($7,000-$9,000), Strasburg’s opponent, James Shields ($8,900), stands out in this grouping. Shields has the second highest projection of the day according to my model behind only Strasburg. And with a price tag $1,100 lower than Strasburg’s he’s also a bit more of a value. But the Nats aren’t quite as good of a matchup for Shields as the Padres are for Strasburg, and Shields’ recent track record is nothing compared to Strasburg’s. For those reasons, I’d rather roster Strasburg than Shields, but they are an option to be paired together. The four points awarded for a win on DK are a small fraction of the points scored by a good DK lineup, so I wouldn’t worry about not being able to get a win from both of your pitchers.

Another option in the mid-price range is Jesse Chavez ($7,500) against Seattle. The Mariners allow pitchers to score 2.29 DK points more than average per nine innings, so that matchup is solid. And Chavez has a bit of upside in that he has three games of nine strikeouts or more over his last 12 starts. The M’s have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, so perhaps there’s some upside there tonight.

If you’re looking for a bargain, I have options for you. First, Matt Cain will draw the Cubs at home, and that’s about as good as it gets for a pitcher in terms of variables. The Cubs have the second highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching, and Cain’s ballpark is arguably the most pitcher-friendly park on the slate, if not in the league. Of course, Cain has been brutal this year with a 5.66 ERA and 4.52 SIERA that doesn’t inspire much hope. But with a price tag of only $5,100, there’s undoubtedly value potential here. Cain only needs to get to about 12 points in order to be worthy of that price tag, and he can easily surpass that mark tonight.

The other bargain option is Brad Hand against the Pirates. Hand has a 4.46 ERA this year, which is obviously ‘meh.’ But it’s really not awful, and it’s certainly not as bad as you would expect it to be for a guy who is at the minimum price. And when you consider his 3.84 SIERA, it makes even less sense that he literally couldn’t be any cheaper. It may sound crazy, but I really think it might be wise to roster Cain or Hand today.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

Because there are so few good pitchers going today, there are almost too many teams to choose from for stacks. My model has me taking a look at seven teams, and it’s really hard to pair things down.

Were I to go with a team-heavy stack consisting of five or six hitters from the same team, I’d consider the Baltimore at Kansas City game. Miguel Gonzalez will square off against Danny Duffy, and both of those guys struggle to keep the ball on the ground. Gonzalez has the third lowest ground ball rate against left-handed hitters of any starter going today, and Duffy has the second lowest ground ball rate against right-handed hitters of any starter going today. Vegas likes the Royals more than the O’s so you could go with Zobrist, Cain, Hosmer, Morales and Moustakas who should hit 2-3-4-5-6. For the O’s, Machado, Jones, Wieters, Schoop, Hardy and Pearce all options, but that may be a disjointed stack. Plus, Vegas isn’t wild about Baltimore.

Vegas is wild about the Blue Jays, as they usually are. And I agree that the top four in that order could have a day against left-hander Derek Holland. The problem with that Jays quartet is that they’re pricey and don’t represent much value. But with cheap pitching options available today, they could be fit into a lineup.

Other mini-stacks that could make sense tonight are Cleveland and Colorado against Wily Peralta and Mike Foltynewicz, respectively. Peralta has the second highest hard hit rate allowed to left-handers among today’s starters, and Folty has a paltry 25.9 percent ground ball rate against left-handed hitters. Kipnis, Lindor, Brantley, Santana Chisenhall are an option for a Cleveland stack, and Blackmon, Reyes, Cargo, and Paulsen are options for the Rockies.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Matt Wieters – $2,900 – Baltimore Orioles
2. John Jaso – $2,900 – Tampa Bay Rays
3. Alex Avila – $2,400 – Detroit Tigers

First Base

1. Adam Lind – $3,900 – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Anthony Rizzo – $4,600 – Chicago Cubs
3. Albert Pujols – $4,500 – Los Angeles Angels

Second Base

1. Steve Pearce – $3,000 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Jason Kipnis – $4,300 – Cleveland Indians
3. Jonathan Schoop – $3,700 – Baltimore Orioles

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera – $5,200 – Detroit Tigers
2. Manny Machado – $4,600 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Lonnie Chisenhall – $3,000 – Cleveland Indians

Shortstop

1. J.J. Hardy – $2,500 – Baltimore Orioles
2. Jose Reyes – $4,200 – Colorado Rockies
3. Marcus Semien – $3,100 – Oakland Athletics

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,600 – Colorado Rockies
2. J.D. Martinez – $4,400 – Detroit Tigers
3. Mike Trout – $5,300 – Los Angeles Angels
4. Curtis Granderson – $4,500 – New York Mets
5. Adam Jones – $4,400 – Baltimore Orioles
6. Charlie Blackmon – $4,600 – Colorado Rockies
7. Michael Brantley – $4,700 – Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitcher

1. Stephen Strasburg – $10,000 – Washington Nationals
2. James Shields – $8,900 – San Diego Padres
3. Matt Cain – $5,100 – San Francisco Giants
4. Brad Hand – $4,000 – Miami Marlins
5. Jesse Chavez – $7,500 – Oakland Athletics