Welcome back to The Fix! I’m here to discuss the top plays and values for tonight’s 12-game slate on DraftKings. I’ll give you my thoughts on the slate, and at the bottom we have rankings of the top plays at each position. If you’re on Twitter, you can find me @RyNoonan.

Forecast

It’s difficult to nail down weather hours and hours before first pitch. We’ve had a nice run of weather lately but I think that luck is ending. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

Per usual, we’re start at the top, and tonight that begins with Rays’ ace Chris Archer ($12,300). I’d prefer Archer were facing the Orioles at home instead of in Camden Yards, but I don’t want to overrate the park factor here for the ace. Archer has been nothing short of elite this season, dominating both left-handed (.259 wOBA) and right-handed (.257) bats while striking out 11.16 batters per nine. While the Orioles have been an above average offense against righties, they’ve slowly moved in to the Cubs/Astros zone with a huge K-rate (22.4%) against right-handed pitching. With a Colorado game on the slate, you can’t have both, so in tournaments I like Archer quite a bit.

Next up is Dallas Keuchel ($12,100) against the Mariners. I don’t care much about ‘value’ when it comes to pitching, I prefer to analysis the matchup and find the pitchers that I believe will perform the best. With that said, I believe this is the highest we’ve seen Keuchel priced at this season. He’s been impressive this season; a 62.6% ground ball rate is #pitcherporn, and his 20.1% hard-hit contact rate is one of the best marks in baseball. The trouble with paying $12,100 for him is that you’re relying on run prevention because his 8.0 K/9 isn’t going to carry you. The Mariners do help a little bit here, with an above average K-rate against left-handed pitching and an implied-run total of just 3.1 tonight.

The Indians also have an implied-run total of 3.1 tonight against David Price ($12,000) and the smokin’ hot Blue Jays. Price has been rolling since his move up north, and will continue to get the run support to win every time out. His ERA is under two and WHIP under one since the trade, while continuing to pile up the whiffs in the right matchup (8.84 K/9). His matchup against Cleveland is neutral but they don’t strikeout as much as you’d like, slightly capping his upside.

Danny Salazar ($10,800) has the unenviable task of taking on the Blue Jays tonight. You’d have to have some sizable stones to roll him out tonight and it’s clearly a tournament-only play. His strikeout upside is tempting, but not THAT tempting.

Tyson Ross ($9,700) sees his price fluctuate more than any other top pitcher, off the top of my head. He’s a bit pricey today against the Rangers (99 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching) but his upside is always intriguing. His 12.5% swinging-strike rate is one of the best in the game, and it’s led to a K/9 of 9.63 so far this season. We love ‘dem strikeouts! When Ross goes bad though, it’s the free pass that’s his issue. A first-pitch strike rate of just 57.8% is not good enough, and is the culprit with regards to his 4.10 BB/9. It also plays itself out in other ways. Getting behind in the count early lends itself hitters counts, which has led to a .337 BABIP-against and occasional issues with homers. I like him today, but he’s not without risk.

Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks ($6,700) is one of the more favorably priced options today, coming in under $7K. You’ll need a Hendricks-type in your lineup if you’re going to get exposure to some of tonight’s high-priced bats. He hasn’t been particularly good lately, but he’s keeping the ball on the ground and missing enough bats to make him interesting. His matchup at home against the Reds (89 wRC+) is plus as well.

Some other pitching quick takes:

• John Lackey is a decent, yet unexciting option tonight. DK’s pricing algo loves the crap out of ERA, so Lackey’s 2.92 makes him a bit pricier than he should be with a 3.62 FIP. I also don’t like the below-average K/9 of 6.62 for nearly $9,000.
• Wei-Yin Chen ($8,200) is another example of an ERA-inflated price point. His FIP is more than a run higher (4.27) and he’s benefited from a 82.7% strand rate this season.
• It’s difficult to trust Gio Gonzalez ($7,200) even when he looks intriguing at this price point. He’s plagued by command issues at times, but he’s been on the bad side of luck with a .350 BABIP and a FIP that’s a run lower than his 4.11 ERA. I do like him as a tournament flier tonight though because the Cardinals have a high whiff rate against left-handed pitching (22.7) and they’re below average offensively (89 wRC+).

Stack Options

According to Vegas, our best bets today are the Diamondbacks (5.3 implied-runs), Rockies (5.2) and Red Sox (4.9).

I really don’t like when there’s a game at Coors Field. I’m not advising that you do this, but I typically fade it. Obviously that can bite you in the butt at times, but it’s not like you can’t build a good team without the Coors boost. The problem is that they’re so heavily owned and when the teams combine for 18-20 runs like we saw last week when the Mets were in town, it’s difficult to cash if you don’t have shares.

The Diamondbacks are the much better play tonight in my opinion, despite the slight 0.1 difference in expected runs between the two teams. Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are both north of $6,000, but otherwise they’re reasonably priced on the whole. David Peralta is just $4,000 so he’ll be owned in 90% of cash games. Just a guess.

The Rockies are facing a left-handed pitcher, and while they’ll benefit from playing at home, it’s difficult to ignore how terrible they’ve been against left-handed pitching this season. They’re 67 wRC+ is comfortably the worst in the league, and their 23.1% K-rate is one of the league’s highest marks. I’m not suggesting that you play Robbie Ray ($5,600) tonight, but I’d temper my expectations on a huge night from the Rockies.

The Red Sox have been on a roll offensively, of course, since the season is all but over for them. They’ve raised their team wOBA against right-handed pitching nearly 12 points in the past month, quite a feat this late in the season. Yankees’ starter Ivan Nova has struggled against left-handed bats this season, so take note (.357 wOBA).

Other offensive notes:

• The Rays are always a solid stack against left-handed pitching (114 wRC+) and I already mentioned that Wei-Yin Chen is playing with fire right now.
• Mike Foltynewicz is an intriguing long-term prospect, but he’s struggling right now. Lefties and righties are destroying him.
• Bartolo Colon has been surprisingly serviceable for longer than I expected, but that gravy train (pun intended, you know he LOVES gravy) is coming to a halt. Left-handed bats have done him wrong this season (.337 wOBA).

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Yasmani Grandal – Los Angeles Dodgers $2,800

2. Wellington Castillo – Arizona Diamondbacks $4,400

3. Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants $3,800

4. Josh Phegley – Oakland Athletics $3,100

First Base

1. David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox $4,300

2. Ben Paulsen – Colorado Rockies $3,500

3. Paul Goldschmidt – Arizona Diamondbacks $6,200

4. Justin Bour – Miami Marlins $3,100

Second Base

1. Logan Forsythe – Tampa Bay Rays $3,600

2. Jose Altuve – Houston Astros $5,000

3. Aaron Hill – Arizona Diamondbacks $2,900

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado – Colorado Rockies $4,900

2. Derek Dietrich – Miami Marlins $3,000

3. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees $4,700

4. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays $3,300

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa – Houston Astros $4,800

2. Jose Reyes – Colorado Rockies $4,800

3. Andres Blanco – Philadelphia Phillies $2,100

Outfield

1. David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks $4,000

2. Chris Young – New York Yankees $2,900

3. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays $5,400

4. Kyle Schwarber – Chicago Cubs $4,800 (C elig.)

5. Mookie Betts – Boston Red Sox $4,600

6. Ender Inciarte – Arizona Diamondbacks $4,500

Starting Pitcher

1. David Price – Toronto Blue Jays $12,000

2. Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays $12,300

3. Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros $12,100

4. Tyson Ross – San Diego Padres $9,700

5. Kyle Hendricks – Chicago Cubs $6,700