Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

There are chances of rain in Kansas City and Colorado. Neither looks to be game threatening, but you never know with the weather. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

Starting, as usual, with the most expensive pitchers of the day ($10,000+), there’s not much value in this price range today. You usually don’t see my model assigning great value grades to the expensive pitchers, but usually there are one or two decent values worth paying up for on the top end of the pricing. Today the only guy that comes all that close to being worth his price is Madison Bumgarner ($11,100). Were my model used to set prices, $11,100 is exactly where I’d set Bumgarner’s price. If you’ve been picking on Phillies the last two days with Kershaw and Greinke, keep rolling with it.

As for the other expensive options, I see no point in paying for one of them as opposed to Bumgarner. And I see no point in paying up for one of them along with Bumgarner given the complete lack of value you’d be getting out of those two spots for a very steep price. So you’re either paying up for Bumgarner or moving on down the line.

Moving down to the next price range ($8,000-$9,000), you have two options, Collin McHugh ($8,700) and Gio Gonzalez ($8,500). Gonzalez has been the better pitcher this year. His xFIP is a half a run lower and his K/9 is close to a full strikeout higher. But the variables (ball park and matchup) are in McHugh’s favor today. His matchup against the Rays is the best matchup of the day according to my DK-specific metric, and he’s also getting a nice boost to his projection from pitching in Tropicana. For those reasons, I’d lean toward McHugh if this is a price range where you want a pitcher, but Gio makes sense as well.

In the mid-price range ($6,500 – $8,000), the pickings are slim. There are actually three pitchers priced below $6,500 who have projections higher than anyone in the mid-price range, so I don’t see any point in spending in this price range today.

As for those bargains, today might be a day to gamble on a cheap pitcher. The options are Justin Verlander ($6,100), Chase Anderson ($5,800) and Erasmo Ramirez ($5,600). Starting with Verlander, I just can’t. He’s rocking a 5.76 xFIP through four starts, so I’m out on him even if my model still likes him to get going at some point.

As for Anderson and Erasmo, they both have very good matchups against the Mets and Astros, respectively. Both games are being played in pitcher-friendly parks, so they’re getting additional boosts to their projections. My model gives Anderson a higher projection and a slightly higher value grade, so he’s probably the better play. But Erasmo has a better strikeout rate and is facing a more strikeout-prone team, so he probably has more upside if that’s your jam.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

Starting with the game in Coors, it was unclear as of this writing who would start for the Rockies after today’s scheduled starter, David Hale, had to pitch last night after a long rain delay knocked Kyle Kendrick out of the game after one inning. Jorge de la Rosa is an option given that starting today would represent normal rest for him, or they could call up a spot starter. If they go with JDLR, Cameron Maybin, Juan Uribe and Jonny Gomes could be options. If they go with a right-handed starter, Kelly Johnson and A.J. Pierzynski are the only good options.

As for the Rockies, they don’t have a great matchup against Shelby Miller, and few of them have reasonable price tags. Left-handers Carlos Gonzalez and Ben Paulsen make sense, but that’s hardly a stack. Ultimately, the Braves bats pretty much suck, and the Rockies don’t have the best matchup, so you don’t have to have as much exposure to Coors as you usually might.

The only other game with an opening total of more than eight runs in Vegas was San Diego at Texas. For the Padres, the right-handers towards the top of their order, Derek Norris, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp, make for a good mini-stack against Wandy Rodriguez. But Upton was scratched on Wednesday with an oblique strain, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play tonight. If he is, I like that three-man stack quite a bit.

On the other side of that game, no starter going today generates ground balls against left-handed hitters at a lower rate than Ian Kennedy. Only one-third of batted balls allowed by Kennedy against lefties this year have been ground balls. For those of you bad at math, that means two-thirds of his batted balls allowed to lefties have been elevated. Elevation is always a good thing when picking hitters. Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor all make for good options today.

I also have to mention the Blue Jays. They lead the league in runs scored, and they have the best wOBA in the league against left-handed pitching. Today they’re facing a left-handed starter in Danny Duffy who has the second lowest ground ball rate against right-handed hitters among all starters today, so the top half of that lineup is certainly an option.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Derek Norris – $3,700 – San Diego Padres
2. Brian McCann – $4,100 – New York Yankees
3. Buster Posey – $4,100 – San Francisco Giants

First Base

1. Adrian Gonzalez – $4,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Eric Hosmer – $3,900 – Kansas City Royals
3. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,500 – Toronto Blue Jays

Second Base

1. Jason Kipnis – $4,900 – Cleveland Indians
2. Jace Peterson – $4,000 – Atlanta Braves
3. Dee Gordon – $4,800 – Miami Marlins

Third Base

1. Josh Donaldson – $4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Manny Machado – $4,200 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Alex Rodriguez – $4,300 – New York Yankees

Shortstop

1. Jose Reyes – $4,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,700 – Colorado Rockies
3. Chris Taylor – $2,600 – Seattle Mariners

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,300 – Colorado Rockies
2. Justin Upton – $4,600 – San Diego Padres
3. Joc Pederson – $3,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Jacoby Ellsbury – $4,800 – New York Yankees
5. Jose Bautista – $4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
6. Shin-Soo Choo – $4,300 – Texas Rangers
7. Jay Bruce – $3,900 – Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitcher

1. Madison Bumgarner – $11,100 – San Francisco Giants
2. Collin McHugh – $8,700 – Houston Astros
3. Gio Gonzalez – $8,500 – Washington Nationals
4. Chase Anderson – $5,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Erasmo Ramirez – $5,600 – Tampa Bay Rays

*Rankings are price sensitive