Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 18, 2015
Welcome back! It was a long week without baseball and I’m glad that it is back. Hopefully you enjoyed a successful first night back, here is to night number two!
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Forecast
It looks as if rain might play a factor in a bunch of different games across the nation. Rain appears to be an issue in Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Detroit. Make sure to monitor the forecasts up until game time.
Pitching Perspective
Klubot engaged. In his first start since the all-star break, Corey Kluber will look to tame the Cincinnati Reds in a battle for the state of Ohio. Kluber was again fantastic in the first half, posting a 10.40 K/9 and a 2.65 xFIP. While the Reds are near the bottom third of the league in strikeouts as a team, they are also in the middle to bottom third in terms of wOBA and wRC as a team. Kluber is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but he also has the best skills. He’s safe to deploy.
David Price is the next best arm, but perhaps not the next best value. His matchup with the Orioles is not the most ideal, but he’s a solid DFS option whenever he takes the mound. He has a solid K/9 (8.28) with a matchup with a team that strikes out at a top-5 clip in the league. He’s expensive, and not as safe as Kluber, but I think he’s a solid tournament option tonight given his strikeout upside and his ability to work deep into games.
Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano will take the mound tonight as two of the more expensive pitchers with decent matchups. I’m putting these two guys together because they’re very similar in terms of DFS. Both Lester and Liriano can rack up strikeouts and have matchups with mediocre offenses. If you’re paying up for both pitching spots, I’m on board with using either one of these guys with Kluber.
If you’re looking to pair a cheaper pitcher with Corey Kluber, look to Tyson Ross. I’ve mentioned Ross exclusively in the past for the skills he brings to the table for DFS. He posts great strikeout numbers and gets a lot of groundballs (62.9%). The Rockies are known for their lack of offense away from Coors Field, and Ross gets the benefit of facing them on a huge negative park shift. Ross is only $8,900 which allows you to pair him with Kluber and get some solid bats.
John Lackey is the next best value at $8,600 against the New York Mets. The Mets offense has been atrocious all year long and I don’t expect them to get going against Lackey. He’s not really a strong strikeout arm (which is not ideal for DraftKings) but he’s a solid value against a weak team. He’s been bailed out quite a bit this year (4.00 xFIP) but on a night with not so many options, I’m not opposed to using him as a second option.
Stack Options
The best run scoring environment of the night is at Chase Field in Arizona. Jake Peavy and Chase Anderson will look to try and tame a pair of offenses with some offensive prowess near the top. I like the Giants bats most in this game as they’ll be taking advantage of a major park shift in their favor against an arm that doesn’t send too many hitters to the bench via the strikeout (only 5.68 K/9).
The Diamondbacks bats aren’t as viable in cash games, but are more of tournament options. Of the offensive contributors viable in cash games, look to Jake Lamb and David Peralta who both should slot in the top-five against a right-handed pitcher. However, AJ Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt carry a lot of weight in tournaments.
The Tigers get the obligatory stack against Chris Tillman tonight. Even without Miguel Cabrera the Tigers have a potent and deep enough offense to warrant full stacking in tournaments. Tillman has posted a 4.63 xFIP this season, and has struggled with the home run in the past making him a prime target for an opposing stack tonight. The Tigers currently are carrying an implied runs total of around 4.7 (the highest of the night) and are one of my favorite stacks for cash games and tournaments.
The Indians are another one of my favorite stack options today against Anthony DeScalifini. The Indians are receiving a significant park boost and are primarily a left-handed offense. They’ll feature four or five left-handed hitters in the first six guys and should make life tough on DeScalifini. Kipnis automatically becomes my favorite second baseman and David Murphy chalks up as one of the best values of the day.
Last but not least, don’t count out the Cubbies. The Cubs have really struggled on offense and will likely be very low owned because of it, but they’re an awesome source of power (if they get it going). I’m not telling you this is the safest stack, but they’re implied runs total suggests that they won’t be the worst choice tonight. Take a chance!
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Buster Posey -$4,700 – San Francisco Giants
2. Stephen Vogt -$3,600 – Oakland Athletics
3. Alex Avila -$2,700 – Detroit Tigers
First Basemen
1. Victor Martinez -$4,100 -Detroit Tigers
2. Carlos Santana -$4,000 – Cleveland Indians
3. Paul Goldschmidt -$5,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Second Basemen
1. Jason Kipnis -$4,800 – Cleveland Indians
2. Ian Kinsler -$3,900 – Detroit Tigers
3. Neil Walker -$3,500 – Pittsburgh Pirates
Shortstops
1. Francisco Lindor -$2,900 – Cleveland Indians
2. Starlin Castro -$3,000 – Chicago Cubs
3. Troy Tulowitzki -$3,500 – Colorado Rockies
Third Basemen
1. Luis Valbuena -$3,700 – Houston Astros
2. Nick Castellanos -$3,100 – Detroit Tigers
3. Jake Lamb -$3,300 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Outfield
1. Michael Brantley -$4,400 – Cleveland Indians
2. Yoenis Cespedes -$4,200 – Detroit Tigers
3. JD Martinez -$5,200 – Detroit Tigers
4. David Peralta -$3,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers
1. Corey Kluber -$11,500 – Cleveland Indians
2.Tyson Ross -$8,900 – San Diego Padres
3. Jon Lester -$9,800 – Chicago Cubs
4. Francisco Liriano -$10,200 – Pittsburgh Pirates
5. John Lackey – $9,400 – St. Louis Cardinals