Happy Wednesday, folks! Today is a perfect day for baseball as we get an equal split slate with enough baseball to keep our afternoons busy at work and still some more action when we get home! Today’s analysis however will only cover the night slate at DraftKings.

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Forecast

The night slate has no weather issues! What a relief!

Pitching Perspective

With only eight games on the late slate schedule, pitching is slim pickings.

With essentially no value picks on the board, the pitching position falls into the hands of Jose Fernandez.

Fernandez has been fantastic in his time back since Tommy John surgery. Although his successes are duly noted in his home ballpark, I’m not straying away from him as he takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road today. While Chase Field is a great run scoring environment, Fernandez poses a giant threat to the Arizona offense. The Diamondbacks are right near the middle of the pack in K% (nearly 20.3%) and Fernandez has immense strikeout upside, posting nearly 10 K/9 innings so far this season. To go along with the strikeouts, he’s inducing a lot of groundballs (>50%) and isn’t giving up any free passes (.47 BB/9). I know it’s been a small sample size since he’s been back, but it’s enough for me.

While Fernandez isn’t the only ace on the mound today, I find it hard to use Sonny Gray.

Gray will get a matchup at home against the tough Toronto Blue Jays offense. The good news is, Toronto will be experiencing a huge negative park shift and Gray has what it takes to shut down any offense. His strikeout numbers have increased from last season (up to 7.77 K/9) and he’s still getting a healthy amount of groundballs as well. The difficulty in Gray’s matchup is the fact that he’s facing the leagues best team in terms of wOBA and 2nd best in terms of wRC.

Update: Originally I was a bit more hesitant on Gray, but Vegas seems to really like him, setting an implied runs total at around three runs for Toronto. This has made me reconsider him greatly for cash games.

The next best options to Jose Fernandez are Lance Lynn and Colin McHugh.

Lynn has quietly been a force for the Cardinals this year, boosting his K/9 by nearly two hitters and recording a 3.30 xFIP thus far. He’s not typically the safest option, but he gets the pleasure of dealing with the team that is last in wOBA and wRC, the Chicago White Sox. He’s priced just under Jose Fernandez at an accessible cost, and one that I’ll likely be paying.

The rational behind McHugh is similar to Lynn’s. Again, not the safest bet from night to night, but the matchup is there. The Red Sox have been atrocious offensively, and I don’t see them breaking it out of it against McHugh. He’s still striking out a fair amount of batters (7.13/9), but he’s been victimized a tad on balls in play and things beyond his control (noted by his ERA being higher than his xFIP). McHugh presents more savings than Lynn does, but I don’t quite think it’s necessary. He’s another option, but I would lean Fernandez and Lynn.

Stack Options

Take note that the Coors Field game is actually a part of the early slate! That takes away one giant stack opportunity, but never fear as we have a few other options.

First there is the game in Yankee Stadium featuring Ivan Nova and Kevin Gausman. Both of these right-handed pitchers have been noted for their pure stuff, but it’s not always enough to get you by. Gausman in particular has really struggled in his time in the bullpen, but he flourished in his starting role at AAA. Despite his brilliant stuff, he actually showed an inability to record strikeouts in his full-time role as a starting pitcher last year, but this year he’s picked it back up a little. The problem with Gausman is the free passes, as he’s issuing nearly 3BB/9 innings right now. High walk rates are great for full stacks as free base runners means a lot of opportunities for RBIs and runs. I really like the Yankees today.

The Orioles offense has gotten a lot deeper with the addition of Jimmy Paredes and the return of Matt Wieters. Each day they are sending up a lineup that is six-deep with solid options regardless of handedness. I prefer Nova to Gausman in this matchup, but I don’t have a problem with picking on him. Nova has never shown the ability to consistently rack up the strikeouts, and he’ll also be friendly enough to hand out some free passes. The Orioles are a bit more contrarian due to their pricing, but they are a solid stack tonight.

The Houston Astros always are an intriguing stack option due to their team makeup. Their lineup from top to bottom is composed of a lot of speed and a lot of power. They’ll get to face off at home against flamethrower Joe Kelly, but that’s actually a welcome surprise. Kelly is walking nearly four baserunners per nine innings and he’s allowing nearly one full home run per nine innings this year. In his 14 starts this year he’s compiled an ERA close to six. Don’t be afraid of him.

Here is my note on the obligatory stack against John Danks. Danks keeps biting us for stacking against him, but I’ll continue to do it. He’s a soft tossing left-hander that doesn’t miss very many bats, and he’s pitching in a great environment for offense. The Cardinals bats have gotten a bit deeper with the return of Matt Holiday and they have a lot of value near the top with bats like Mark Reynolds and Randal Grichuk. Don’t shy away from using Cardinals against John Danks.

Last but not least, piggybacking on an aforementioned theme, try to pick on Felix Doubront. Doubront much like Gausman and Kelly has always struggled to throw strikes consistently. A once promising prospect, he’s kicked the tires with a few different teams in the last few years trying to find a home. Unfortunately he hasn’t really been able to do so thanks to the lack of command, and the lack of strikeouts. He gets the advantage of facing the A’s at home in a great park for pitching, but they’ll be a solid contrarian stack option tonight.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann -$3,900 – New York Yankees

2. Matt Wieters – $2,900 -Baltimore Orioles

3. Josh Phegley -$3,400 – Oakland Athletics

First Basemen

1. Chris Davis -$3,900 – Baltimore Orioles

2. Victor Martinez -$3,900 – Detroit Tigers

3. Mark Texeira -$4,400 – New York Yankees

Second Basemen

1. Jose Altuve -$4,300 – Houston Astros

2. Martin Prado -$3,200 – Miami Marlins

3. Robinson Cano -$3,400 – Seattle Mariners

Shortstops

1. Jhonny Peralta -$4,300 – St. Louis Cardinals

2. Erick Aybar -$3,200 – Los Angeles Angels

3. Carlos Correa -$4,700 – Houston Astros

Third Basemen

1. Kyle Seager -$3,400 – Seattle Mariners

2. Manny Machado -$4,900 – Baltimore Orioles

3. Alex Rodriguez -$4,400 – New York Yankees

Outfield

1. JD Martinez -$4,900 – Detroit Tigers

2. Jacoby Ellsbury -$4,200 – New York Yankees

3. Matt Holliday -$3,900 – St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitchers

1. Jose Fernandez -$10,000 – Miami Marlins

2. Sonny Gray -$10,700 – Oakland Athletics

3. Lance Lynn -$9,900 – St. Louis Cardinals

4. Colin McHugh -$8,000 – Houston Astros