Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 14-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, rankings of the top plays at each position and some sample lineups for you to consider.

Pitching Perspective

It’s the day of the expensive pitcher. We’ve got six pitchers with five-figure price tags, four of them at $11,000 or higher, and two of them at $13,000 or higher. As you might expect, there’s not a ton of value to be had with those price tags. My model thinks the price tags are way too high on Zack Greinke and Scott Kazmir, and Chris Archer is also a bit rich for my blood. Throw out Felix against the Blue Jays, and you can narrow down the expensive pitching options pretty quickly.

The pricey guy I like the most is Corey Kluber ($11,500). He’s the only expensive pitcher that has been given a positive value grade by my model. Kluber continues to carry an excellent xFIP (2.71), and he has been excellent in July with opposing batters holding only a .228 wOBA against him. And his matchup is obviously good against the White Sox, who own the third worst wRC+ in the league against right-handed pitching. I imagine Kluber will be on all of my rosters.

The only other expensive pitcher I could get on board with is Max Scherzer ($14,000). As with Clayton Kershaw yesterday, I think Scherzer’s exorbitant price tag is actually exactly right. His projection for the day is almost exactly as far above average as his price tag is, so I think the price is appropriate. But with Kluber being the better value and allowing for more money to be spent on bats, I’ll probably be off Scherzer altogether. Pairing Scherzer and Kluber is virtually impossible.

Moving on to the mid-price range ($6,500-$8,500), there are two good options, Drew Hutchison ($6,800) and Andrew Cashner ($7,200). My model assigns a better projection and value grade to Hutchison, but I’d be lying if I said I totally agreed with my model.

Hutch has a 5.19 ERA and 3.87 xFIP, so some positive regression has to be coming, but I’m hesitant as to how much. Hutch has a career hard hit rate of 31.5 percent, which is the ninth highest rate among the 75 pitchers with at least 250 innings between this season and last. So yes, he has good strikeout and walks skills, but we’re getting to the point where we have to consider that he’s not just been unlucky but is simply bad at contact management. On the plus side, he has the best matchup of the day according to my model, and this game is in Seattle as opposed to Toronto. But because of his struggles, I don’t know if I could stomach him in cash games. GPP? Go for it.

As for Cashner, he also has a good matchup in a pitcher-friendly ball park. And with a 47.2 percent ground ball rate, he feels a little safer than Hutchison. Admittedly, Cashner’s hard hit rate isn’t all that much lower than Hutch’s, but it is lower. And hard hit ground balls aren’t as damaging as hard hit balls that are elevated. I really don’t like diverting from what my model tells me, but I’m inclined to go Cashner over Hutch in this price range.

If you want to gamble with a cheap pitcher, I’d consider Patrick Corbin ($5,900). In his three starts this season he has 13 strikeouts compared to only two walks in 15 innings. I don’t like that he’s pitching at home, but that negative shift to his projection is offset in large part by a slightly above average matchup against the Brewers. It’s definitly an iffy play, but his projection is slightly above average while his price tag is decidedly below average, so there could be value to be had. I should also mention that my model also likes Chris Tillman ($5,800), but with his 4.49 xFIP I can’t get on board.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

First of all, sorry about that Brewers stack recommendation yesterday. That went over about as well as a fart in a space suit. Oh well, it happens.

Second of all, Coors. I begrudge always having to discuss the Coors games, but it’s simply unavoidable. Aside from the obvious ball park factor, the Rockies also have a terrible rotation with the fourth worst xFIP in the league. They’ll be sending Eddie Butler and his career 5.13 xFIP to the mound today, so the Reds are an obvious stack candidate.

Reds left-handers, Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton, are all priced through the roof, but they also have extremely high projections. With Kluber and one of the cheaper pitching options discussed above, you should be able to get some exposure to the left-handed Reds. As for their right-handers, Todd Frazier is too expensive, but Marlon Byrd‘s price tag is palatable, and Brandon Phillips and Eugenio Suarez can be used if you can manage to go Reds-heavy with a stack. As for the Rockies, Carlos Gonzalez and Ben Paulsen have good value grades, but that’s about the extent of Rox that I like tonight.

Moving away from Coors, a whopping seven Astros rank in the top 50 in my hitter projections today. They’re getting a negative park shift playing on the road in Kansas City, but that’s more than offset by a good matchup with Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie has a 5.36 ERA, 4.84 xFIP and a paltry 35.3 percent ground ball rate. Plenty of cheap Astros could take advantage of the matchup, Preston Tucker, Jason Castro, Jonathan Singleton and Colby Rasmus. Luis Valbuena also makes sense if you want to go Houston-heavy with a stack. Jose Altuve could also be thrown in with them to complete the six-man max stack.

The other game that warrants mentioning is Texas at Los Angeles. The over/under on this game opened at 10.5 runs with the Angels as a pretty large favorite. Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun all have solid projections, and Calhoun is very reasonably priced, making playing all three together in the same lineup doable. As for the Rangers, five of their left-handers rank in the top 50 in my projections as they’ll be facing the right-handed Nick Tropeano. Josh Hamilton is dirt cheap at $3,000, and it would be too perfect if he did some damage in his first game back in LA. Also, Shin-Soo Choo is still priced reasonably, Prince Fielder isn’t too expensive, and Rougned Odor is as hot as anyone right now.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Jason Castro – $2,900 – Houston Astros
2. Jonathan Lucroy – $3,500 – Milwaukee Brewers

First Base

1. Joey Votto – $5,700 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Jon Singleton – $3,700 – Houston Astros
3. David Ortiz – $3,700 – Boston Red Sox

Second Base

1. Brandon Phillips – $4,400 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Robinson Cano – $3,700 – Seattle Mariners
3. Rougned Odor – $4,000 – Texas Rangers

Third Base

1. Jake Lamb – $3,100 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Kyle Seager – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners
3. Todd Frazier – $5,800 – Cincinnati Reds

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,400 – Colorado Rockies
2. Ian Desmond – $3,100 – Washington Nationals
3. Eugenio Suarez – $4,300 – Cincinnati Reds

Outfield

1. Jay Bruce – $5,100 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Billy Hamilton – $4,700 – Cincinnati Reds
3. Josh Hamilton – $3,000 – Texas Rangers
4. Ryan Braun – $4,700 – Milwaukee Brewers
5. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,400 – Colorado Rockies
6. Shin-Soo Choo – $3,800 – Texas Rangers
7. Colby Rasmus – $3,300 – Houston Astros

Starting Pitcher

1. Corey Kluber – $11,500 – Cleveland Indians
2. Andrew Cashner – $7,200 – San Diego Padres
3. Drew Hutchison – $6,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
4. Max Scherzer – $14,000 – Washington Nationals
5. Patrick Corbin – $5,900 – Arizona Diamondbacks

Sample Lineups

Every day I play DFS, I take the projections you see above and run them through Fantasycruncher.com, a lineup optimization tool. Basically, it just tells me what the maximum number of projected points is that I can get into a lineup under the cap. Below is the optimal lineup it spit out for tonight using my projections.

As mentioned above, I think I prefer Cashner to Hutchison, so that lineup could easily be tweaked to include Cashner by replacing Odor with Cano. I’ll be using the lineup in GPPs, but were I to play cash games, I’d be good with this lineup. Moving on to some stacks, let’s see what Reds-heavy and Astros-heavy lineups might look like.

I can’t lie, I love that Astros stack for a GPP. Let’s do one more just for fun. Is it even possible to get Scherzer and Kluber in the same lineup?