Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 26, 2015
Welcome to another weekend edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy! We’ve survived another week of the baseball season, and sadly it’s dwindling before our eyes. As I mentioned yesterday, be sure to keep monitoring the trade deadline throughout the next week for lineup shakeups.
If you haven’t signed up at DraftKings yet, make sure to do so using the link!!!
Forecast
There is a chance of rain in the back half of the games in Pittsburgh and St. Louis, but I don’t think it will be enough to cause any damage to the DFS aspect of the game.
Pitching Perspective
Do you like scoreless streaks? Zack Grienke will take the mound against THE METS today, in what should be a fantastic pitching duel with opponent Jacob deGrom. Grienke has been filthy this season, and has been essentially unhittable of late. Grienke has been striking out less hitters (only 8.02 K/9) but he’s inducing a lot of soft contact (23% as compared to his career average of 17%). He’s 13,000 on DraftKings, but he’s a solid option today.
deGrom on the other hand will have to deal with a Dodgers offense, but one that’s getting a negative park shift. He’s $1,500 cheaper than Grienke, but possesses a little more strikeout upside as he’s striking out over one more hitter per nine than Grienke. I like deGrom’s upside, but the matchup with a tough Dodgers team has me staying away from him in cash games, though I feel he’s a viable tournament option.
Gerrit Cole will take the ball against a pretty thin Nationals lineup at home at PNC Park. The Pirates got smoked last night, and Cole will be looking to put them back in the win column. He’s been fantastic this year, much like the guys I’ve mentioned before him. He’s striking out more than one hitter per inning, and is getting enough ground balls to help his cause. He’s xFIP of 2.94 speaks truth to his baseline statistics, and he has an accessible price tag at $10,600. He’s cash game and tournament viable.
I got burned with Carlos Carrasco yesterday, but it won’t happen again. Danny Salazar is in the same exact situation and is essentially the same type of pitcher with an enormous strikeout upside. With that being said, the same goes for me today. Salazar has cash game merit, but I love his upside way more in tournaments.
They fall by the way side today, but don’t forget about Dallas Keuchel and Michael Wacha who both are tournament options. I try not to pick on the Royals frequently, but Keuchel has great run prevention skills. He’s been striking out a lot more hitters this year, but against a pesky bunch, his upside is diminished a tad.
Wacha is a better option today against an even more depleted Braves lineup. He’s definitely cash game viable and is very accessible at his price.
Stack Options
1. Obligatory post about Coors Field. Today there is no ace taking the mound, in fact, there are two incredibly average, to below-average right-handers taking the mound. This puts literally every player in play for cash games and GPPs. Flip-flop stock for Reds outfielders and give Jay Bruce the upper hand once again against a right-hander. Plug ’em all in and play.
2. Somewhat obligatory post about Chase Field. The Brewers and D’Backs square off again today in Chase Field where a pair of right-handers take the mound hoping to keep the ball in the park. Both Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Garza have struggled with the home run ball, and that should have hitters licking their chops. You can find a lot of left-handed value at the tops of both of these lineups to allow you to pay up for pitching and Coors Field exposure. Fire up Parra, Lind, Inciarte and Peralta.
3. The Angels get a matchup with Nick Martinez, who finally came back down to Earth and has been getting pummeled since. Martinez doesn’t strike out anyone and he puts a lot of runners on base via the free pass. Both of those things help contribute to his 4.91 xFIP. The Angels have some threats in their lineup (the obvious Mike Trout) and should be a popular stack today as they start the day with an implied runs total of around 4.7 runs.
4. Last but not least, if you can guess the lineups, the Sunday Night Baseball game might have some fireworks. Eduardo Rodriguez and Shane Greene take the mound for the Red Sox and Tigers, respectively and they’ll try to tame the bats looking to unleash on them. Shane Greene has been atrocious and is much like Nick Martinez in the fact that he doesn’t strike out anyone and gives up a lot of contact. Greene keeps guys off the bases via walk a little better, but he’s giving up 1.40 HR/9. Hello Big Papi?
Rodriguez is the better of the two arms here, but I wouldn’t shy away from Tigers either. Rodriguez puts a lot of baserunners on and gives up a lot of flyballs. That smells like a recipe for disaster.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1 and 2. Coors Field starting catchers.
3. Jonathan Lucroy – $3,500 – Milwaukee Brewers (still too cheap relative to his skills)
First Basemen
1. Joey Votto -$5,800 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Ben Paulsen -$3,200 – Colorado Rockies
3. David Ortiz -$4,000 – Boston Red Sox
Second Basemen
1. Brandon Phillips -$4,400 – Cincinnati Reds
2. DJ LeMahieu -$4,500 – Colorado Rockies
3. Johnny Giavotella – $2,900 – Los Angeles Angels
Shortstops
1. Troy Tulowitzki -$4,600 – Colorado Rockies
2. Xander Bogaerts -$3,900 – Boston Red Sox
3. Erick Aybar -$3,100 – Los Angeles Angels
Third Basemen
1. Todd Frazier -$6,000 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Nolan Arenado -$5,100 – Colorado Rockies
3. Pablo Sandoval -$2,700 -Boston Red Sox
Outfield
1. Jay Bruce -$5,100 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Carlos Gonzalez -$4,900 – Colorado Rockies
3. Ender Inciarte -$3,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers
1. Zack Grienke -$13,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Gerrit Cole -$10,600 – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Jacob deGrom -$11,500 – New York Mets
4. Michael Wacha -$9,700 – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Danny Salazar -$10,400 – Cleveland Indians