Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, rankings of the top plays at each position and some sample lineups for you to consider.

Pitching Perspective

As always, let’s start with the expensive pitchers of the day ($9,000+) . And let’s start specifically with the expensive starters to avoid. The worst value grade of this group of pitchers according to my model is Jaime Garcia ($9,600). I’ve always been a fan of Garcia in seasonal leagues, but he doesn’t really have any business being close priced to 10K with his skill set. He has great control, but his strikeout rate is perennially slightly below average. And with a very average matchup against Cincinnati, he’s just not worth his price tag. I also can’t get down with Jose Fernandez ($12,700). I love the kid, but his price tag is too high. I’d be fine with him if he was priced around $11,000, but not close to 13K.

The expensive pitcher I like the most today is James Shields ($9,100). David Price has the highest projection of the day in my model, and then Shields, Noah Syndergaard, and Jose Fernandez are all tightly grouped in the next tier down. As mentioned, Fernandez is much more expensive, and Sydenragaard is also $1,600 more expensive than Shields. With roughly the same projection but a much lower price tag, Shields is the best play of the trio. Syndergaard is worth his price tag, but I’d only use him with Shields if you can make the cheaper bats work. I wouldn’t play him over Shields. As for Price, he does have the best projection, but my model thinks he’s slightly overpriced. I’m fine with you using him in cash games if it makes you feel safe, but he’s certainly not a value.

In the mid-price range ($7,000-$9,000) the two cheapest pitchers in the group, Jordan Zimmermann ($7,700) and Julio Teheran ($7,500), have the two highest projections, so they obviously also have the best value grades. Their projections and value grades are effectively indistinguishable, but their peripherals can help us choose between the two. Zimmermann has the lower xFIP (3.85 compared to 4.01), and his walk rate is half what Teheran’s is. Zimm has a better matchup against Miami, although Teheran has an above average matchup against Baltimore. Zimm is also pitching in the more pitcher-friendly park, so he’s pretty clearly the safer play and definitely the guy for cash games. I may well use him in GPP also becase I don’t trust Teheran as far as I can throw him. But with an above average strikeout rate, Teheran is a worthy GPP play.

If you like pitching bargains, today isn’t your day. Among the cheap options ($7,000 and cheaper), Felix Doubront ($5,000) and Chris Capuano ($4,100) are the only guys to which my model has assigned a positive value grade. Doubront gets the oft-picked on Phillies, but they’re actually only a slightly above average matchup for left-handers like Doubront as their wRC+ against LHP is a respectable 97, and they rank mid-pack in strikeout rate. As for Capuano, he hasn’t started a game since May. He does have a decent matchup against a Texas team that struggles against left-handers, but it’s hard to imagine him pitching particularly deep into this game even if he’s not awful. Plus, the ball park is scary with Texas heat in full force and effect.

Ultimately, with the cheaper guys in both the expensive price range and mid-price range having solid projections and good value grades, there should be no need to gamble with cheap pitchers today. Some combination of Shields, Zimmermann and Teheran should leave plenty of money for bats, or even some combination of Syndergaard and Zimm/Teheran would be cheap enough if you prefer Noah.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

There are 10 Blue Jays who rank in the top 55 of the 407 hitters I have a projection for today. In case you didn’t know, there are only nine spots in the batting order. My model likes them so much that even their super-high salary guys, Donaldson and Bautista, have above average value grades. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,100) has an excellent value grade and will likely be in many of my lineups. But literally the entire lineup will be in play against Adam Morgan who has a 5.10 xFIP and 1.65 HR/9 in his first five career starts. Of course everyone and their mom will be on the Jays today as this game has the second highest total of the day in Vegas with Toronto being a heavy favorite.

Editor’s note: As this post was being written, news broke that Troy Tulowitzki had been traded to Toronto. The particulars of the deal were not confirmed as of this writing. But for DFS purposes, the point remains that anyone in the Toronto lineup tomorrow is an option.

The highest total of the day in Vegas is New York at Texas, but I don’t see heavy stack opportunities. As mentioned above, Texas is not very good against left-handed pitching, so despite my hesitance to use Capuano, I’m also not big on a Rangers stack. Right-handed Adrian Beltre is a solid play if you don’t want to pay up for Donaldson, and Ryan Rua could make for a decent punt option. But that’s about the extent of the Rangers I’m interested in today. As for the Yankees, I do like ARod against Martin Perez in Texas, but I don’t like his price tag. Like I said, if I’m paying up at 3B, I’m going with Donaldson. Carlos Beltran is a decent value, but I don’t see myself rostering him or any other Yankees.

Aside from the Jays, the other stacks I’d recommend would be the Cubs and the Astros. Both teams have five players ranked in the top 55 of my rankings, and each of the 10 players has a solid value grade. For Houston, all of their right-handed bats are in play at home against C.J. Wilson. That’s Altuve, Correa, Carter, Gattis and Marisnick. Altuve is a top option at second base, and Marisnick is a solid punt option, though my model likes Rua a bit more in that role. Right-handed Cubs are also in play against the left-handed Yohan Flande. Flande will be making his first start of the season, so he may not make it deep into the game, and the Rockies bullpen has the eighth worst xFIP in the league. Bryant, Fowler, Soler, Castro and Russell are your stack candidates and all but Fowler have excellent value grades.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Russell Martin – $4,200 – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Dioner Navarro – $2,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Alex Avila – $2,300 – Detroit Tigers

First Base

1. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,100 – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Chris Carter – $3,500 – Houston Astros

Second Base

1. Jose Altuve – $4,700 – Houston Astros
2. Neil Walker – $4,200 – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Devon Travis – $4,200 – Toronto Blue Jays

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant – $4,500 – Chicago Cubs
2. Josh Donaldson – $5,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Adrian Beltre – $4,200 – Texas Rangers

Shortstop

1. Starlin Castro – $2,900 – Chicago Cubs
2. Carlos Correa – $4,700 – Houston Astros
3. Addison Russell – $2,900 – Chicago Cubs (2B eligibility)

Outfield

1. Jose Bautista – $5,600 – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Jorge Soler – $3,600 – Chicago Cubs
3. Dexter Fowler – $4,000 – Chicago Cubs
4. Kevin Pillar – $3,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
5. Corey Dickerson – $3,400 – Colorado Rockies
6. Chris Colabello – $3,800 – Toronto Blue Jays
7. Ryan Rua – $2,900 – Texas Rangers

Starting Pitcher

1. James Shields – $9,100 – San Diego Padres
2. Jordan Zimmermann – $7,700 – Washington Nationals
3. Julio Teheran – $7,500 – Atlanta Braves
4. Noah Syndergaard – $10,700 – New York Mets
5. David Price – $12,800 – Detroit Tigers
6. Chris Capuano – $4,100 – New York Yankees

Sample Lineups

Every day I play DFS, I take the projections you see above and run them through Fantasycruncher.com, a lineup optimization tool. Basically, it just tells me what the maximum number of projected points is that I can get into a lineup under the cap. Below is the optimal lineup it spit out for tonight using my projections.

I pretty much knew the optimizer was going to spit something like this out. It’s rare that my projections make the teams to target this obvious, but it’s nice to have stacks included in the optimized projections. Below is a very similar lineup with an extra Blue Jay taking Dickerson’s spot and Teheran replacing Zimmermann.

I considered including examples of Toronto-, Houston- and Chicago-heavy stacks, but instead I’ll give you a Blue Jay-less lineup if you want to go the contrarian route.