Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 29, 2015
This post was written exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com by Logan Hitchcock.
Happy “Hump Day!” We’ve slowly but surely made it to the middle of another week of baseball season. Cherish it though, because the season is flying by, and we’re quickly approaching the trade deadline! Below I’ve included some analysis on the pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as a small set of individual player rankings for tonight’s nine-game evening slate at DraftKings.
We’ve seen some trades shake up lineups in the past few days, keep your eyes out for more changes.
Pitching Perspective
Clayton Kershaw takes the mound tonight. That is about all the information you need to know about where to start your pitching research. Kershaw has been filthy while “sort of” playing second fiddle to Zack Grienke this season. All his peripherals as well as his traditional statistics are off the charts, and there really doesn’t have to be much thought to it. The only question you need to ask yourself prior to putting Kershaw in your lineup, is whether or not his price is feasible and if he provides any value. Tonight he’s listed at $15,000. I’m not sure if this is a DraftKings record, but it’s personally the highest I’ve ever seen a player priced (30% of the salary cap). We’re reaching uncharted waters at this rate, and I think it will be difficult to pay for him in cash games, but if you can make it work, he’s viable. He’ll probably be a tournament option only for me.
Editor’s note: After the post was submitted by the author, news broke that Kershaw’s start was being pushed back to Friday. He’s dealing with some soreness in his lower body, and the issue does not sound overly serious at this time. Mike Bolsinger will start in Kershaw’s place tonight.
The oft-considered Tyson Ross takes the mound against the Mets at Citi Field, but even he has a higher price than we’re used to seeing. As you might have noted in the past, I’m a Ross fanboy. He gets an extreme amount of ground balls, and he has done a great job of increasing his strikeout numbers (now at 9.68 K/9). The issue with Ross right now has been his command, as he’s walking 4.18 hitters per nine innings. Putting on that many free baserunners is a scary thought for a cash game play, but the options don’t get much better tonight.
John Lackey is another option that I might consider for cash games, despite the lack of strikeout potential. Lackey, much like all the Cardinals starters, has done a good job in the run prevention aspect of his game, but the strikeouts haven’t been there (6.44 K/9). The Reds have a fairly watered down lineup, and they’re experiencing a huge negative park shift away from Great American Ball Park. Lackey’s price is accessible, but I view him as more of a SP2.
Last but not least, you can always try to pick on bad teams. That’s the situation that Bartolo Colon and RA Dickey have tonight. Colon gets the advantage of pitching in a better park for pitchers (Citi Field) and he gets a matchup with the hapless San Diego Padres, but he’s not someone I’m keen on trusting in cash games, especially given his inability to record strikeouts (7.06 K/9). Dickey on the other hand is the ultimate GPP pitcher. Not even Dickey knows what his knuckleball is going to do when it leaves his hand, but there is one option that benefits us as DFS players. Assuming he’s got it going on, against a bad Phillies lineup, he could be in a great spot for GPPs. The knuckleball is prone to plenty of strikeouts, but also plenty of walks as well. Maybe it’s worth a shot in tournaments.
Stack Options
The stack options are clearly not in abundance tonight. No game in Coors Field, nor Chase Field, nor Great American Ball Park.
However, we can try to take advantage of Camden Yards, and the Baltimore Orioles matchup with rookie right-hander Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz has featured a lot of great strikeout potential, and solid raw ability so far, but it hasn’t been a great season. He’s earned himself a 4.21 xFIP, and he’s allowing a ton of fly balls. Balls in the air, as you may know, are not good for a pitcher but are plenty good for DFS stacks. Load up on the Orioles.
The other big opportunity to capitalize on tonight is the Blue Jays bats against Jerome Williams. Williams has seen his groundball percentage dip this year, and as a result he’s giving up a ton of homeruns – nearly two per nine innings. I don’t need to tell you how good the Blue Jays offense is at home, especially with the addition of Troy Tulowitzki. They’ll be the most popular stack of the night, but one that you’ll want to have exposure to in cash games and GPPs.
The Yankees get the obligatory Colby Lewis stack tonight. Just an educated guess, but due to the extreme outpouring by the Yanks last night, my guess is that they’ll end up being owned very highly tonight as well (or at least more than they would have been). Lewis isn’t a great pitcher, and the Yanks team total suggests that they’re in for some runs, but you can’t possibly expect an effort of three touchdowns worth of runs again. The left-handers, particularly Ellsbury, Teixeira, McCann and Gardner are my favorites, but really anyone is in play.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Russell Martin -$4,500 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Matt Wieters -$2,900 – Baltimore Orioles
- Brian McCann -$3,900 – New York Yankees
First Basemen
- Edwin Encarnacion -$4,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Chris Davis – $4,200 – Baltimore Orioles
- Jose Abreu -$4,600 – Chicago White Sox
Second Basemen
- Jimmy Paredes -$3,600 – Baltimore Orioles
- Devon Travis -$4,100 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Kolten Wong– $4,100 – St. Louis Cardinals
Third Basemen
- Manny Machado -$4,700 – Baltimore Orioles
- Josh Donaldson -$5,200 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Chase Headley -$3,800 – New York Yankees
Shortstops
- Troy Tulowitzki -$4,100 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Hanley Ramirez -$3,900 – Boston Red Sox
- Xander Bogaerts -$3,400 – Boston Red Sox
Outfield
- Jose Bautista -$5,300 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Adam Jones -$4,100 – Baltimore Orioles
- Brett Gardner -$4,900 – New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw -$15,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers- Tyson Ross -$10,800 – San Diego Padres
- Lance McCullers -$8,800 – Houston Astros
- John Lackey -$8,800 – St. Louis Cardinals
- RA Dickey -$6,500 – Toronto Blue Jays (GPP ONLY)