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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 9, 2015

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to another edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. As usual, I’ve included below analysis for tonight’s slate of MLB games on DraftKings.

Included below is a look at the best pitching options, potential teams to stack from as well as a small set of individual player rankings.

If you don’t already have an account at DraftKings, make sure to sign up using the link!

Forecast

As of right now it looks like the only game with any potential weather issues is the game in Coors Field. The weather has been really strange of late, so make sure you’re paying attention to any alerts that might come out in regards to any of the potential games today. As always, monitor the forecasts up until first pitch!

Pitching Perspective

Despite a relatively short slate (only seven games) we’re spoiled with tonight’s pitching options. The best matchup of the day belongs to none other than Zack Grienke. Grienke gets spoiled with a game against the hapless Philadelphia Phillies offense. While the Phillies are actually in the bottom third in the league in K% (19.1%) their offensive skills are amongst the worst in the league. Their lineup is incredibly shallow, and it’s easy for pitchers, especially of Grienke’s caliber, to limit damage. Grienke is one of the best pitchers in baseball and needs no more praise for his matchup tomorrow.

Grienke is actually probably the second best pitcher on the slate, but his matchup is better than King Felix’s. Felix Hernandez will take the ball at home (hooray!) against an Angels offense that will be coming off a “Rocky Mountain High” after leaving Denver. Much like Grienke, Felix has all that you could ask for in a DFS pitcher. He produces a lot of groundballs, has a lot of strikeout upside and pitches in a great park for pitchers. The Angels have been very productive offensively of late, so I’ll give the nod to Grienke, but Felix shouldn’t be disregarded.

A step down from Grienke and Felix is left-hander David Price. Much like the aforementioned pair, Price is an ace, and fits the mold of the best possible DFS options. However, his matchup with the Twins isn’t one I feel comfortable paying against in cash games. The Twins are set up better to face left-handed starters and have been one of the better offenses this year, so I’m more concerned about gathering my exposure to Price in tournaments. He frequently works deep into games and can rack up strikeouts, but falls just shy of a cash game play for me.

Last but not least, there are a pair of right-handers that I’d be more than happy to pair with Grienke in cash games tomorrow. First, Jose Fernandez is finally back from injury and looked pretty sharp in his first start back. Fernandez has ridiculous numbers at Marlins Park in his career but this play is more predicated on his matchup in general as the Reds are a middle of the pack offense. I think the Marlins will continue to be cautious with Fernandez, especially if he’s to get into trouble, so there is some risk. However, his strikeout potential and upside make him a great tournament option and his price keeps him in play for cash games.

Carlos Martinez probably won’t be a final vote all-star, but he’s pitched like one. The Cardinals will be on the road in a really important series opener against the division rival Pittsburgh Pirates. For Martinez, the Pirates have been an inconsistent offense (near the bottom third in terms of team wOBA) and play in a pitcher-friendly park. His price hasn’t really caught up to his performance as he’s only $9,400 and is striking out over nine batters per nine innings while racking up nearly a 56% ground ball rate. I’d give him the slight edge over Fernandez in terms of secondary cash game plays.

Stack Options

With a short slate and so many good pitching options, there really aren’t many places to go with the bats tonight. First off, I should note that there is a game in Coors Field that will draw the attention of the masses, and rightfully so. Alex Wood and Kyle Kendrick will take the mound and their respective handedness will play into the strength of their opponents. Kendrick will be forced to deal with a pesky bunch of left-handed hitters that will give you a lot of salary relief. If Kelly Johnson continues to hit three, he’s a great option as well as any of the other guys that fly around the top of the order.

For the Rockies, focus in on those with the platoon advantage over Wood, although everyone is in play for tournaments. On a short-slate, at a premier position, Tulo is almost a must.

Outside of Coors Field, I really only see two other stack options with any merit tonight. First off, the Detroit Tigers get the obligatory stack against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has dodged his way around some bullets this season but has been hit fairly hard of late. While the Detroit bats are without Miguel Cabrera, their still an enticing stack tonight because Pelfrey does not miss any bats (K/9 less than five) and he’s generally horrible. He’s getting a lot more ground balls this season, but there is still a lot of potential here. It’s just a plus that Detroit is the away team, as they’re guaranteed a full nine at-bats.

Last but not least, the Dodgers again are a stack option against Severino Gonzalez. Picking on Gonzalez has been a trend each time he’s taken the mound this season, and it’ll continue tonight. The Dodgers offense is tied for the major league lead in wRC+ at 114 and really should have no trouble with Gonzalez. While he’s managed to strikeout about a batter per inning, he is an extreme flyball pitcher which is great news for Dodgers stacks. Anyone feeling a Joc Pederson homer?

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Yasmani Grandal -$4,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. AJ Pierzynski -$3,800 – Atlanta Braves

3. Wilin Rosario -$3,400- Colorado Rockies

First Basemen

1. Adrian Gonzalez -$4,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Victor Martinez -$4,700 – Detroit Tigers

3. Carlos Santana -$3,700 – Cleveland Indians

Second Basemen

1. Jace Peterson -$3,900 – Atlanta Braves

2. Howie Kendrick -$4,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Brian Dozier -$4,100 – Minnesota Twins (GPP)

Shorstops

1. Troy Tulowitzki -$4,500 – Colorado Rockies

2. Jhonny Peralta -$3,700 – St. Louis Cardinals

3. Andrelton Simmons -$4,100 – Atlanta Braves

Third Basemen

1. Nolan Arenado -$4,500 – Colorado Rockies

2. Justin Turner -$3,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Kelly Johnson -$3,600 – Atlanta Braves

Outfield

1. Yasiel Puig -$4,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Cameron Maybin -$5,000 – Atlanta Braves

3. Yoenis Cespedes -$4,500 – Detroit Tigers

4. Nick Markakis -$4,000 -Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitchers

1. Zack Greinke -$11,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Felix Hernandez -$11,000 – Seattle Mariners

3. Carlos Martinez -$9,400 – St. Louis Cardinals

4. Jose Fernandez -$9,800 – Miami Marlins

5. David Price -$10,800 – Detroit Tigers

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