Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Saturday’s nine-game slate on DraftKings starting at 4:05 P.M. ET. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

There is a chance of thunderstorms throughout the day in Pittsburgh so keep an eye on that game. There’s also a chance of storms late in the day St. Louis that could have an impact. That game also has the only potentially meaningful wind with a 13 mph breeze blowing out to left.

Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

According to my model, the top projected starter of the day is Gerrit Cole ($10,700). Cole has been spectacular this year with strikeout and walk rates that are decidedly better than average. His ERA won’t remain below 2.00, as he’s had some luck with runners on base, but it should absolutely stay below 3.00. Combined with a healthy number of strikeouts, that makes him a sure-fire ace. He’s getting a nice bump to his projection thanks to his matchup with the Phillies who have the worst wRC+ in the league against right-handed pitching. The game is also in his pitcher-friendly home park in Pittsburgh. The only hesitation in using Cole comes from the chance of storms there throughout the day. If it looks like delays are likely tomorrow afternoon, you might have to look elsewhere.

Thankfully, there is elsewhere to look. While Cole’s price tag isn’t too high, it also doesn’t leave room for him to provide a ton of value. But Jeff Samardzija ($8,300) and Collin McHugh ($7,800) are reasonably priced and do have some value potential.

Samardzija has seemingly lost his swing-and-miss stuff this year, but his walk rate is excellent. The combination of the two skills has his xFIP just under 4.00, yet his ERA is closer to 5.00 because of some bad luck on balls in play and with runners on base. Like Cole, he also has a good matchup today. He’ll face the Rays who are almost as good of a matchup for right-handers as the Phillies are because the Rays strikeout a bit more. The game is also in Tampa, so the Shark will be getting a positive park shift away from his hitter-friendly home park.

As for McHugh, he will face the Mariners who have the third highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. Like Samardzija, McHugh has a strikeout rate around average and an excellent walk rate, so his skills indicate he’s a guy whose ERA should be in the threes. I expect his strikeout rate to play up today in this good matchup.

Before I mention a bargain play to consider, let me pause to mention a couple of guys I would avoid. The first is Chris Archer ($11,800). There is no arguing that Archer has been dominant this season, but his price tag is Kershaw-ish. He’s great, and I love him. But I’m not willing to pay elite, elite dollars for him. I’m also not into Jacob deGrom ($10,500) at his price tag. He’s facing the Braves who are close to league average against right-handers in terms of wRC+, and they have the third lowest strikeout rate in the league against righties. He’s not worth that price tag in this matchup. To be clear, either guy is an option in tournaments, especially Archer. But I don’t think the value is there for cash game use.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming, so how about a bargain play? In all honesty, I think Cole, Samardzija and McHugh will be the only pitchers I use. But if I have a set of pricey hitters I really like, I would probably look to Tyler Lyons ($5,300) for salary relief. Lyons has a 21.8 percent career strikeout rate in just over 100 innings, so he has some upside in that department. But is limited in this start because he’s facing the Royals, who strikeout less than any other team against lefties like Lyons. Yet at this price point, upside isn’t totally necessary. A quality start without many strikeouts will still represent plenty of value.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

No two players have cost me more money this year than Mike Pelfrey and Nick Martinez. Both pitchers have managed to prevent runs at a well above average rate despite having well below skills. Pelfrey, who will go today against the Rangers in Texas, has a 2.28 ERA compared to a 4.37 xFIP. For his career, Pelfrey has not been able to outperform his xFIP, so I know that regression is coming. I want a piece of it whenever it happens. To his credit, he’s keeping the ball on the ground a lot this year, which gives me pause when I want a stack I use to have multi-dong potential. But I’ll hate myself if he blows up and I don’t have exposure to the hitters that finally do the damage. For what it’s worth, Vegas has Texas projected for the highest team total of the day.

As for which Rangers to use, they’re very lefty-heavy in the middle of their order, so I’d probably load up on those guys. The 2-5 in the order should be Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland and Joey Gallo.

And on the other side of that game, there are plenty of Twins to like against Colby Lewis. Lefties like Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas grade out as solid values today, as does Aaron Hicks hitting out of the nine-hole. Hicks is a good salary relief option, but he also makes sense as part of a full Minnesota stack using 9-5 in their order. That should be Hicks, Brian Dozier, Torii Hunter, Mauer, Trevor Plouffe and Vargas. Though I guess Vargas and Mauer are both only eligible at 1B, so you’d have to leave Vargas out of that stack.

And let’s just stick with games being played in Texas for today’s third stack option. Other than the Rangers, the team with the highest projected team total according to Vegas that is playing in this slate of games is the Astros. They’re a complete boom-or-bust offense. They were bust most of this week and last, but they more than got right last night against King Felix. Don’t expect them to bat around in the first inning again, but they can certainly get to Mike Montgomery at some point. Montgomery, the former bright prospect of the Royals, will be making his third career start today. Despite a 2.08 ERA through two starts, he has not been impressive, as his strikeout rate sits at just 14 percent.

With Jose Altuve out today nursing a hamstring injury sustained in last night’s game, it’s a little unclear what the Astros order will be. For the purposes of stacking, you’ll have to check the lineup tomorrow and see how they’re grouped together. But the Astros to target are George Springer, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa and Chris Carter. I think there is a decent chance that they hit 3-6 in the lineup, but I can’t be sure. Jake Marisnick could also be added to the stack for salary relief purposes, but my guess is that he is disjointed from the others and thus not a stack option.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Yan Gomes – $3,500 – Cleveland Indians
2. Robinson Chirinos – $3,600 – Texas Rangers
3. Salvador Perez – $3,500 – Kansas City Royals

First Base

1. Kendrys Morales – $3,500 – Kansas City Royals
2. Joe Mauer – $4,000 – Minnesota Twins
3. Chris Carter – $4,300 – Houston Astros

Second Base

1. Dee Gordon – $4,700 – Miami Marlins
2. Kolten Wong – $4,000 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Brian Dozier – $4,700 – Minnesota Twins

Third Base

1. Joey Gallo – $3,800 – Texas Rangers
2. Matt Carpenter – $4,300 – St. Louis Carindals
3. Miguel Cabrera – $4,800 – Detroit Tigers

Shortstop

1. Elvis Andrus – $4,000 – Texas Rangers
2. Carlos Correa – $4,000 – Houston Astros
3. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies

Outfield

1. George Springer – $4,900 – Houston Astros
2. Denard Span – $4,300 – Washington Nationals
3. Bryce Harper – $5,600 – Washington Nationals
4. Torii Hunter – $4,300 – Minnesota Twins
5. Alex Rios – $3,100 – Kansas City Royals
6. Aaron Hicks – $3,200 – Minnesota Twins

Starting Pitcher

1. Collin McHugh – $7,800 – Houston Astros
2. Jeff Samardzija – $8,300 – Chicago White Sox
3. Gerrit Cole – $10,700 – Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Tyler Lyons – $5,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Chris Archer – $11,800 – Tampa Bay Rays

*Rankings are price sensitive