Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 27, 2015
Good morning everyone! Another weekend full of baseball is upon us! Below I’ve included a discussion for today’s entire slate at DraftKings. It includes a breakdown of today’s pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as a set of individual player rankings.
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Forecast
Weather is going to be a big problem today. Currently there is a very good chance of rain in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, New York, and Baltimore. The forecast in most of these situations appears to show steady bands of rain for most of the day, so please be aware of the risk.
Pitching Perspective
With all of the weather issues today, it’s a good thing that we don’t have to worry about Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw will get the luxury of pitching in Miami, a spacious park with a retractable roof and he has an excellent matchup with a Marlins team that will be without Giancarlo Stanton. Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he’s the one that you should be starting your cash games with. His strikeout upside along with his ability to work in deep in games makes him the top option today.
Matt Harvey would be a slight downgrade from Kershaw, however, the weather might keep him from being usable. On paper, Harvey has a great matchup with a below average Reds’ offense that is experience a large negative park shift away from their home ballpark. After some issues with the home run ball, Harvey has gotten back on track in his last few starts. His strikeout rate is just a tad down from where it was, but it’s still an elite skill. Because of his salary and the threat of weather, I don’t think you have to force Harvey into your lineups, especially given Kershaw’s circumstances – it’s one or the other, and I’m using Kershaw.
Gio Gonzalez is probably the top secondary option today in his matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies. The downfalls of Gonzalez are his inconsistency as well as the potential weather threat in Philadelphia. If the game is good to go, Gonzalez becomes a good play thanks to his strikeout potential and the chance for nice run prevention thanks to a primarily left-handed, inept lineup. Also, his salary makes him a perfect SP2 complement to Kershaw.
Outside of the top three, there is a big drop off in starting pitchers and the last few arms I’m reserving for tournaments.
Garrett Richards hasn’t been quite the guy we’ve expected this year, but he still has great strikeout potential and a nice matchup at home with the Seattle Mariners. His strikeout rate is down considerably, but he’s still getting a lot of groundballs – the recipe for a good DFS arm.
The same goes for Andrew Cashner. Cashner has a solid matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks who are experiencing a negative park shift away from Chase Field. Cashner’s issues this year have stemmed from his lack of command as he’s averaging almost three walked batters per nine. However, if he’s on top of his command, his strikeout potential makes him a great tournament option.
Stack Options
Because I’m tackling the whole slate and there are a lot of stack options today, I’m going to focus more on the teams to gain exposure to rather than individual players, as I’ll pick that up in the player rankings.
The top option today is without a doubt the Detroit Tigers against John Danks. Danks is not a good pitcher and is frequently someone that we try to exploit from a DFS standpoint. This will be the most popular stack today, but one that you’ll want to gain exposure to in both cash games and GPPs. The Tigers have the ability to get very right-handed, and anyone with the platoon advantage against Danks is in play today.
The game in the Rogers Centre should be the next biggest game that you’ll want exposure to. The game has opened with a total of 9, and I’d be betting the over as Yovani Gallardo and Matt Boyd will be taking the mound. Much like the Tigers, the Blue Jays are a high powered offense, but they’re also very expensive. They make for a great full stack, but will be tough to fit with the use of Kershaw. The Rangers on the other hand, while not as deep as the Blue Jays, are a little bit easier to fit and are guaranteed the full nine at-bats.
If the rain holds off, there might be a bunch of runs scored in Camden Yards today. The total has opened up at 8.5 for a pair of teams that are deep enough to warrant full stacks. I’ve mentioned a lot in the past that the Indians are great options against right-handed pitchers as they can essentially fill a completely left-handed lineup. Chris Tillman has been averaging over four walks per nine innings and free baserunners is a great recipe for stack success, especially for hitters in a good ballpark. The Orioles side of this is also in play, as they actually carry an implied runs total of around 4.5 runs, but my personal preference is the Cleveland side.
A pair of lesser noted stacks for today will be the Cardinals and A’s. The A’s get a matchup with Chris Young, who has actually been fantastic this season and has doomed all those that have tried to exploit him. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher, and while pitching in a bad offensive environment today, flyballs are a recipe for success for hitters in DFS. It’s not my favorite stack, but it’s got a lot of potential should Young start yielding homers.
The Cardinals will be on the complete opposite side of the spectrum, facing an extreme groundball pitcher in Donn Roach. Roach will be making a spot start for the Cubs on Saturday, and was actually really solid in AAA. The Cardinals somehow get it done night in and night out, even without two of their best hitters. You can easily fit a bunch of them, and they’ll be fairly contrarian despite their implied runs total of 4.5.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Wilson Ramos – Washington Nationals
2. Russell Martin -Toronto Blue Jays
3. Jonathan Lucroy -Milwaukee Brewers
First Basmen
1. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
2. Edwin Encarnacion- Toronto Blue Jays
3. Adrian Gonzalez – Los Angeles Dodgers
Second Basemen
1. Ian Kinsler -Detroit Tigers
2. Jason Kipnis -Cleveland Indians
3. Danny Espinosa- Washington Nationals
Third Basemen
1. Josh Donaldson -Toronto Blue Jays
2. Manny Machado – Baltimore Orioles
3. Justin Turner -Los Angeles Dodgers
Shortstops
1. Jose Reyes – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Elvis Andrus -Texas Rangers
3. Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians
Outfield
1. Rajai Davis – Detroit Tigers
2. Jose Bautista -Toronto Blue Jays
3. JD Martinez – Detroit Tigers
4. Yoenis Cespedes – Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers
1. Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Matt Harvey – New York Mets
3. Gio Gonzalez -Washington Nationals
4. Garrett Richards – Los Angeles Angels
5. Andrew Cashner – San Diego Padres