Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 3, 2015
Good morning folks! Welcome to another edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. Below I’ve got a discussion on the late slate pitching situation as well as the best teams to stack from and a set of individual player rankings.
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Forecast
As of right now it appears that there are no weather concerns for tonight’s games. As always, continue to monitor for any crazy changes in the weather.
Pitching Perspective
The last two days have been such a crapshoot in terms of pitching. Seemingly all of the best pitchers have been dreadful and have kept successful lineups from top money. Perhaps then it is a good thing that there aren’t too many top names on the slate for tonight.
The biggest name on the slate is that of Chris Sale. Sale will square off with one of the hotter offenses in the league, the Texas Rangers. The Rangers really roughed up Jeff Samardzija last night with the help of super prospect Joey Gallo, but I don’t see them doing anything near that against Sale. Their bats are in the top third in the league in terms of wOBA, but they’re also in the top third in strikeout percentage, and that should behoove Sale who is currently carrying a 10.07 K/9 to go along with his 3.08 xFIP. Sale is the highest priced pitcher on the slate, but he’s also one of the best bets. He’s not my favorite cash game play, but he has both cash game and tournament appeal.
Just below Chris Sale is Corey “Klubot” Kluber. Kluber has been fantastic of late and has shown why he was selected as the AL Cy Young award winner last season. The best part about Kluber’s game is his ability to get strikeouts, however, tomorrow he has a matchup with a tough Kansas City Royals team. The Royals aren’t a notoriously powerful offense, but they are pesky, and they only strikeout at a 15.4% clip, the lowest percentage in the league. I think Kluber is always in play as a tournament option, but I’m not going to be forcing him into my cash games today.
A pair of left-handers, Cole Hamels and Jon Lester, round out the next two pitching options on the slate. Hamels gets a matchup with a mediocre Cincinnati Reds offense that travels away from Great American Ballpark to a slight downgrade at Citizens Bank Park. Hamels has been pretty solid this season, posting a K/9 over 9 and an xFIP of 3.49. Because the Phillies are so bad, his chances at getting a win are always up in the air, but he’s their best bet at notching one against the Reds. He’s a better tournament than cash game play, but he’s someone you’ll want to have some exposure to.
Lester gets a nice matchup with the Miami Marlins tonight. The Marlins are near the bottom of the league in terms of wOBA and while they’re set up to beat up left-handers more than right-handers, I don’t fear them against Lester. After a so-so April, Lester looked like himself in May, dropping his xFIP down to 3.20 while bring up his K/9 to 8.76. He’s priced just below the top three options, but I like him as one of the safest of the bunch. Don’t be afraid to use him in cash games or GPPs.
Last but not least, look to Big Game Shields. James Shields will go tonight looking to destroy the anamoly infested Petco Park that has destroyed our cash games in the previous two nights. Shields has been getting destroyed this season via the home run, but luckily the Mets don’t pack too much of a punch. While he’s been giving up a ton of home runs, he’s also been racking up the strikeouts, good for a 11.59 K/9 so far this season. That’s due to regress a little bit, but it makes him a very valuable asset for his price on DraftKings where strikeouts are so valuable. He’s a nice cash game option.
Stack Options
Once again, there is a game featuring two mediocre pitchers at Coors Field. Like the last few days, this section doesn’t really merit too many notes, except for this time, Rockies bats are more in play. The most important thing about this game is verifying who is in the lineup, but when the lineups do come out, the 1-6 hitters from both teams are great cash game options and you’ll need to have exposure in tournaments as well. Both teams do have enough bench options that you can find some decent value to help reach up for the best bats.
Aside from the game in Coors Field, the stack options are rather limited. The Cubs will get a matchup with Dan Haren, but it’ll be in a bad park for run production. Haren has not been good and has lost even more velocity than in previous years. He’s not striking out anyone, and yielding a lot of contact, which is good even for a team that doesn’t make a ton of contact (Cubs lead the league in K%). The other bad news for Haren is that he is yielding a lot of fly balls to a team with a lot of potential power. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant should hold both cash game and tournament appeal.
The Nationals offense isn’t one that I’d particularly be thrilled about using in a full stack, but they get a matchup with veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle. Like Haren, Buehrle has seen a sharp decline in velocity (averaging only 83 mph on his fastball) and as a result is allowing even more balls in play (only a 4.26 K/9). Balls in play are good for a stack, and the Nationals should have no trouble putting it in play today. Tyler Moore should be an excellent value play, and I’m not even going to move off of Bryce Harper even without the platoon advantage.
Player Rankings
Catcher
1. Yasmani Grandal -$4,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Nick Hundley -$3,500 – Colorado Rockies
3. Wilson Ramos -$3,600 – Washington Nationals
First Basemen
1. Adrian Gonzalez – $5,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Anthony Rizzo -$4,700 – Chicago Cubs
3. David Ortiz -$4,300 – Boston Red Sox
Second Basemen
1. Howie Kendrick -$4,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. DJ Lemahieu -$4,100 – Colorado Rockies
3. Justin Turner -$4,200 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Shortstops
1. Troy Tulowitzki -$5,000 – Colorado Rockies
2. Ian Desmond -$4,200 – Washington Nationals
3. Jimmy Rollins -$4,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Third Basemen
1. Nolan Arenado -$5,100 – Colorado Rockies
2. Kris Bryant -$4,600 – Chicago Cubs
3. Alex Guerrero -$3,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Outfield
1. Joc Pederson -$5,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Carlos Gonzalez -$4,600 – Colorado Rockies
3. Charlie Blackmon -$4,600 – Colorado Rockies
4. Ryan Raburn -$2,800 – Cleveland Indians
Starting Pitchers
1. Chris Sale -$10,600 – Chicago White Sox
2. Jon Lester -$9,900 – Chicago Cubs
3. James Shields -$8,900 – San Diego Padres
4. Cole Hamels -$10,100 – Philadelphia Phillies
5. Corey Kluber -$10,400 – Cleveland Indians