Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s seven-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

There are rain chances in Philadelphia in Washington tonight, but the forecast as of this writing looks like delayed starts are the only worry and not postponements. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

The top option of the day according to my model is Gio Gonzalez. The variable factors such as matchup and ballpark aren’t really adjusting his base projection upwards today, but his base projection is good enough to be the best of the day. That’s primarily because the pitching options tonight aren’t that great, and also because Matt Harvey is getting negative adjustments thanks to opponent and ball park (Arizona). And with Harvey being priced at $10,400, he’s not a great value option. But Gio at $8,500 is a value in addition to being the top projected pitcher of the day. That said, if you could fit both Harvey and Gio into a lineup, I’d have no issue with that. The same goes for Gio and Jake Arrieta, who has a value grade similar to that of Harvey.

If you’re looking for cheap value, I like Erasmo Ramirez. His 5.53 ERA might scare you off, but his SIERA is a shade under 4.00 thanks to an above average strikeout rate and a walk rate that isn’t too far below average. He’s generating swinging strikes as a 12.1 percent clip, which indicates there may be even more strikeouts coming. Admittedly, some of his work this year has been as a reliever, and that’s helping his numbers. But other factors in play today also make him intriguing.

Mainly, his matchup with Seattle is a really good one. The Mariners have been nine percent worse than average against right-handed pitching, and they have the third highest strikeout rate against right-handers. The game is also in Seattle, so he’s getting a positive adjustment to his projection because of that as well. At a price point of just $5,300, Erasmo has the potential to return some good value tonight.

Essentially, Gio will be in most of my lineups tonight, and the second spot will be filled by Harvey, Arrieta or Erasmo depending on how much I have left when I plug in my hitters.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

If you take the starters going in tonight’s slate and look at their wOBA allowed against both left and right-handed hitters, no pitcher is more hitter-friendly against hitters of a particular handedness than Jeremy Hellickson against left-handers. That makes the Mets worth a look tonight, especially with the game being played in hitter-friendly Arizona. Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Daniel Murphy are all left-handers and should hit 1-3-4 in the lineup, making them a nice mini-stack.

The next most hitter-friendly starter going tonight is Carlos Frias against left-handers. He’ll face the Cardinals tonight. Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter at the top of the lineup are both great plays, and Matt Holliday makes for a decent option as well to make a mini-stack there. I like Jason Heyward as well and might throw him in that stack if he’s in the eight hole.

And finally, my model simultaneously likes Gio as well as Cubs hitters. Gio has been fairly friendly to right-handers, so the righties in the Chicago lineup are getting a fairly big bump to their projection in my model. I prefer Gio, but I do plan on hedging a bit with a Cubs stack in a GPP.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Robinson Chirinos – $3,600 – Texas Rangers
2. Wilson Ramos – $3,600 – Washington Nationals
3. Yasmani Grandal – $3,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,300 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Lucas Duda – $5,000 – New York Mets
3. Adam Laroche – $3,900 – Chicago White Sox

Second Base

1. Daniel Murphy – $4,400 – New York Mets
2. Kolten Wong – $4,000 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Addison Russell – $3,500 – Chicago Cubs

Third Base

1. Matt Carpenter – $4,400 – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Kris Bryant – $4,300 – Chicago Cubs
3. Evan Longoria – $3,800 – Tampa Bay Rays

Shortstop

1. Starlin Castro – $3,600 – Chicago Cubs
2. Ian Desmond – $3,800 – Washington Nationals
3. Elvis Andrus – $4,200 – Texas Rangers

Outfield

1. Curtis Granderson – $4,000 – New York Mets
2. Jason Heyward – $4,400 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Dexter Fowler – $3,800 – Chicago Cubs
4. Nelson Cruz – $5,100 – Seattle Mariners

Starting Pitcher

1. Gio Gonzalez – $8,500 – Washington Nationals
2. Matt Harvey – $10,400 – New York Mets
3. Jake Arrieta – $9,600 – Chicago Cubs
4. Erasmo Ramirez – $5,300 – Tampa Bay Rays

*Rankings are price sensitive