Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

There are chances of thunderstorms in the forecast in Kansas City and Colorado, so those are games to keep an eye on. Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

The safe play today is the most expensive option, Tyson Ross. It’s an incredibly weak crop of starters going today, so paying up for one of the few reliable options is an understandable, and likely a popular, strategy. For cash games, its hard to ignore Ross, which is especially true given that he’s one of the cheaper “most expensive pitcher of the day” guys we’ve seen all year at $9,400. My model has that price being just right, so Ross doesn’t represent a huge value or anything, but you can roster him comfortably.

The second best play of the day according to my model is Tanner Roark. His projection isn’t too far off what Ross is projected for, so at only $5,700, Roark represents a potentially huge return on investment. His matchup is obviously great against the Cubs who give a huge bump to the projection of right-handed starters in my model. And the game is in the more neutral Washington ball park as opposed to often hitter-friendly Wrigley.

The only question here is whether Roark is the same guy we saw impress last year. He was never as good as his 2.85 ERA suggested last year as his xFIP was 3.84. But he had a well above average walk rate and a somewhat close to league average strikeout rate. But this year in 15 appearances (two starts) his strikeout rate is a paltry 8.6 percent. It’s a small sample size as he has just over 30 innings throwing primarily out of the pen, but that’s an alarmingly low strikeout rate. I’m probably going to roll with him anyway just because of his price tag, but I understand if you’re hesitant.

If you want to pay up for two safe starting pitchers, Jake Odorizzi is the other guy you should roster along with Ross. Like Ross, my model has Odorizzi’s price tag ($8,600) being almost exactly right. Again, there may not be a ton of value there, but it’s an appropriate price for a safe pitcher on a day where those are few and far between. Odorizzi will face the Mariners who have been a very friendly matchup for right-handed pitchers this year, and Odorizzi is getting an additional bump to his projection with the game being played in Seattle.

If you’re looking for cheaper options, Kyle Lohse has an above average projection for the day and a good value grade, but he’s $100 more expensive than Roark and doesn’t have a better projection or value grade. I guess you could roster both Lohse and Roark, but if you’re just using one guy in that price range, go with Roark. If you want to go super cheap, Shaun Marcum ($4,300) is actually intriguing. He has made four appearances this year (three starts) and has a 26.3 percent strikeout rate that’s backed up by an 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. Baltimore has been a pretty favorable matchup for right-handed pitchers this year, and Marcum gets a slight bump with this game being played in his home park in Cleveland. If you’re looking for salary relief, Marcum is an option.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

Let’s get Coors out of the way. Not only is the ball park blatantly favorable, the two starters in that game have the fourth and fifth lowest projections of the 30 starters going today. Assuming rain doesn’t turn out to be a big concern in that game, you’ll have to have to have exposure to hitters in that game. For the Marlins, Dee Gordon, Martin Prado and Giancarlo Stanton make for a nice mini-stack as the 1-2-3 in the lineup. If you want to go team-heavy with a Marlins stack in a GPP, you can go 1-6 and also use Justin Bour, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. For the Rockies, Charlie Blackmon, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado are all options from the top five of the order.

Sticking with obvious stacks, I’ll mention the Blue Jays who continue to lead the league in runs scored by a fairly wide margin. They’ll face Roberto Hernandez today who has allowed at least four runs in four of his last six starts. Jose Reyes, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are all options. Stacking all of them might be a bit expensive, but you don’t have to spend big on pitching today, so it should be doable.

Yesterday I mentioned Mets left-handed hitters as an option against Jeremy Hellickson given his struggles against lefties this year. Hellickson’s start was pushed back to today, so Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy once again make for a good mini-stack in hitter-friendly Arizona.

I also like the Giants a bit getting a positive park shift playing in Philadelphia and facing a hittable starter in Jerome Williams. Hunter Pence, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt make for a nice mini-stack. If you wanted to go Giants-heavy with a stack in a GPP, you could also use Nori Aoki, Joe Panik and Angel Pagan.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Buster Posey – $4,300 – San Francisco Giants
2. Wilin Rosario – $3,600 – Colorado Rockies
3. Jason Castro – $3,500 – Houston Astros

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Adrian Gonzalez – $4,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers

Second Base

1. Dee Gordon – $5,300 – Miami Marlins
2. Ian Kinsler – $4,000 – Detroit Tigers
3. Ben Zobrist – $4,200 – Oakland Athletics

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera – $5,200 – Detroit Tigers
2. Chris Davis – $4,500 – Baltimore Orioles
3. Ryan Zimmerman – $3,900 – Washington Nationals

Shortstop

1. Ian Desmond – $3,900 – Washington Nationals
2. Troy Tulowitzki – $5,100 – Colorado Rockies
3. Jose Reyes – $4,600 – Toronto Blue Jays

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,600 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Christian Yelich – $4,700 – Miami Marlins
3. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,200 – Detroit Tigers
4. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,600 – Colorado Rockies
5. Joc Pederson – $4,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Giancarlo Stanton – $5,800 – Miami Marlins
7. Jose Bautista – $5,200 – Toronto Blue Jays

Starting Pitcher

1. Tyson Ross – $9,400 – San Diego Padres
2. Tanner Roark – $5,700 – Washington Nationals
3. Jake Odorizzi – $8,600 – Tampa Bay Rays
4. Shaun Marcum – $4,300 – Cleveland Indians
5. Kyle Lohse – $5,800 – Milwaukee Brewers

*Rankings are price sensitive