Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Sunday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

Uuuuuuuuuggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh. Rain yesterday and today has been a huge pain. As there were yesterday, there are several games with a “chance of thunderstorms.” It doesn’t look like we’re in line for any rain outs outside of maybe the Pirates at Cubs game, but delays are certainly possible. For that reason, I’d be a bit wary of pitchers in the following games: SF @ CIN, LAA @ BAL, TB @ MIN, PIT @ CHC, CLE @ TEX, and DET @ STL. I’ll be discussing pitchers below as if rain were no issue, but you have to check the forecast closer to game time tomorrow. Check out DailyBaseballData.com and @KevinRothWx.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Is Stephen Strasburg ($9,100) hurt? That’s the question of the day for me. Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman has done research showing hard throwers who have Tommy John surgery often end up having arm injuries 400 to 900 innings after surgery. Strasburg is at 636.1 innings since TJ. Jeff Sullivan, also of Fangraphs, theorized that Strasburg could be compensating for ankle discomfort he experienced in the spring.

All of this is very relevant today given that my model (based off the ZiPS projections) still believes in Strasburg. Throw in the Petco bump and Strasburg has the highest projection of the day along with a reasonable price tag. I personally think he’s hurt. If I’m wrong, I expect him to go on a tear soon because he’s simply been too unlucky on balls in play and with men on base. For that reason he makes for a high upside play, and I wouldn’t fault you for rolling the dice in a tournament lineup, but I’d look elsewhere in cash games.

Of the other expensive options ($8,500 and up), A.J. Burnett ($8,500) is the only one who is undervalued according to my model. Unfortunately, the weather in that game is the one I’m most concerned about. If the forecast clears up in the morning, I’ll have plenty of exposure to Burnett against the Cubs who have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. If the weather scares you off Burnett and you need to spend on a pitcher to get close to the cap, Shelby Miller ($8,800) comes closest to being a decent option according to my model. But I’d prefer to just go with a couple cheaper options today.

Of the mid-price options ($7,000-$8,400), Chris Archer ($8,000) looks the best according to my model. It’s a good matchup against the Twins, who have the third highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching. With Archer being tied for the sixth highest swinging strike rate among qualified starters, the upside is serious. And at his price point, he’s also a good value for cash games.

The guy tied for sixth in swinging strike rate with Archer is Carlos Carrasco ($8,100), who will face the Rangers this afternoon. I wouldn’t consider for a second playing him over Archer, but he is an option to be your second pitcher along with Archer. Carrasco is once again having trouble turning his excellent strikeout and walk skills into great run prevention this year, so he may be better suited for tournaments than cash games.

But there are cheaper options you can choose to pair with Archer. They guy I probably prefer most is Noah Syndergaard ($6,900). To reference Jeff Zimmerman again, he has a method for projecting strikeout rate on a daily basis, and Syndergaard has the highest projected strikeout rate of the day. That makes some sense against the Brewers who have the fifth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

If you need to go any cheaper, take a look at Chris Heston ($6,200). His price tag is $1,400 higher than it was in his last outing after he struck out 10 Astros in that game. I pimped Heston in that post and was appalled to see his ownership percentage around three percent in some GPPs. I liked him a) because the Astros strikeout a lot, but also because b) he’s flashed some really good skills. His strikeout and walk rates are both above average, and his xFIP is in the low threes as a result.

Now, today isn’t the best spot for him in Cincinnati where the ball park isn’t helping. But he does have a 54.3 percent groundball rate, which should help him keep the ball in the park and limit his downside. Plus, the Reds are 12 percent below average against right-handed pitching. I’d probably prefer Archer/Syndergaard and even Carrasco in tournaments, but Heston is fine if you need salary relief.

Aaaaand if you need to go even cheaper, Josh Collmenter ($5,600) is too cheap. My model has Heston and Collmenter with almost the exact same projection, and Heston is $600 more expensive. However, Collmenter doesn’t have near the skills that Heston does, and Collmenter strikes very few batters out. For that reason, I’d only use him if I desperately needed salary relief in cash games.

Stack Options

Normally I mention the teams and also the player’s from those teams that I would consider using in stacks for the day. But I normally write these posts on Tuesday, Thursdays and Fridays. Sundays are a different animal, and regulars often ride the pine on Sundays. In an effort not to waste time and words on players who won’t be in the lineup, I’ll simply be mentioning the teams I might stack today. Check lineups before lock for the players in the lineup for those teams.

My favorite stack has to be the D’Backs. Eight D’Back hitters have a projection more than one standard deviation above the mean today according to my model. Whoever they have in the lineup today, you’ll be able to make an Arizona-heavy stack. They have such good projections because they’re facing Sean O’Sullivan who has the second lowest projection of the day and a career 5.86 ERA. Plus, they’re still in a good hitting environment even though they’re away from home thanks to Philly’s hitter-friendly park. Oh, and I forgot to mention that each of the eight D’Backs I like has a positive value grade today with six of them color coded as “green” in the value column in the chart below.

Next, let’s go with Vegas and take the favorite in the game with the highest projected total of the day (nine). That would be the Cleveland Indians in Texas facing off against Nick Martinez. Martinez has arguably been the luckiest pitcher in baseball this year as his ERA sits at 1.88 while his xFIP is 4.77. His teammate, Colby Lewis, had been riding some luck this year as well until the Indians roughed him up yesterday. Considering the Indians are 6th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers like Martinez, which makes sense given how lefty-heavy their lineup is, it could be two days in a row of Texas starters getting eaten by the regression monster. The Rangers also have the third worst bullpen ERA in the league, so the Indians could continue to feast even if they knock Martinez out early.

And then finally let’s go with the team who has the highest wRC+ against right-handed pitching…by a mile. That would be the Los Angeles Dodgers who have been 36 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching so far. The next best team has only been 15 percent better than average. The Dodgers will face the pitcher with the lowest projection of the day according to my model, Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick is sporting a 7.65 ERA this year, so this appears to be a mismatch of the highest order.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Carlos Santana – $4,600 – Cleveland Indians
2. Salvador Perez – $3,700 – Kansas City Royals
3. Buster Posey – $4,300 – Cleveland Indians
4. Evan Gattis – $3,400 – Houston Astros
5. Miguel Montero – $3,400 – Chicago Cubs

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Mark Trumbo – $4,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Albert Pujols – $4,300 – Los Angeles Angels
4. Lucas Duda – $3,900 – New York Mets

Second Base

1. Robinson Cano – $4,100 – Seattle Mariners
2. Jose Altuve – $4,700 – Houston Astros
3. Chris Owings – $3,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Daniel Murphy – $3,600 – New York Mets
5. Dustin Pedroia – $3,600 – Boston Red Sox

Third Base

1. Kyle Seager – $3,800 – Seattle Mariners
2. Aaron Hill – $3,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Kris Bryant – $4,700 – Chicago Cubs
4. Chase Headley – $3,700 – New York Yankees

Shortstop

1. Jimmy Rollins – $4,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Hanley Ramirez – $4,200 – Boston Red Sox
3. Troy Tulowitzki – $3,900 – Colorado Rockies
4. Jose Ramirez – $3,200 – Cleveland Indians

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,300 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Joc Pederson – $4,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Mark Trumbo – $4,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Kole Calhoun – $4,300 – Los Angeles Angels
5. Mookie Betts – $4,200 – Boston Red Sox
6. George Springer – $4,800 – Houston Astros
7. Jacoby Ellsbury – $4,900 – New York Yankees
8. Curtis Granderson – $3,600 – New York Mets

Starting Pitcher

1. Chris Archer – $8,000 – Tampa Bay Rays
2. Noah Syndergaard – $6,900 – New York Mets
3. A.J. Burnett – $8,500 – Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Carlos Carrasco – $8,100 – Cleveland Indians
5. Josh Collmenter – $5,600 – Arizona Diamondbacks (cash only)
6. Chris Heston – $6,200 – San Francisco Giants (tournament only)

*Rankings are price sensitive