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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: May 20, 2015

Good day, everyone! Below we’ve got a discussion on the pitching situation for tonight’s late slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got a discussion on which teams are the best to pick hitters from as well as player rankings for each position.

Forecast

As of right now it appears that there won’t be any weather difficulties tonight. Because of the oddities in weather this early in the season, don’t completely throw this out the window. Make sure to monitor forecasts throughout the day.

Pitching Perspective

Am I allowed to skip this section? It seems this season has been a roller coaster of pitching affairs and tonight should only add to it.

Tyson Ross ($9,000) is really the only option that sticks out tonight. Ross faces the Cubs at home at a very affordable price. The Cubs are being victimized by opposing pitchers in the strikeout category. As a team they are striking out 25.6% of the time, leading the league in that category. Ross is the ultimate DFS dream, pairing great strikeout upside with a ton of groundballs. The Cubs offense has the ability to break out and power up against anyone, but I don’t really see it happening tonight, and neither does Vegas. Ross should be the first person in your lineups tonight.

A few spots down, Jake Odorizzi ($8,500) deserves a mention. Odorizzi has been solid this year (7.43K/9 and 3.54 xFIP) and will face a banged up Braves squad. The Braves only throw one formidable hitter (Freddie Freeman) at the opposing pitcher every night, and should Odorizzi keep the guys in front of Freeman off the base paths he should have no problem. Odorizzi is just a small favorite in this game as of right now, but I expect that number to grow as the day goes on.

Jordan Zimmermann ($8,900) always has the ability to twirl a gem, but he hasn’t looked himself this year. The problem seems to be that Zimmermann is allowing a lot more balls in play so far. His K/9 is down to 5.79, and unluckily for him, his OPP BABIP is .327. The BABIP should regress negatively, and he should start to see some better numbers, but if he isn’t striking anyone out, he’s tough to use in daily fantasy formats. The Yankees will be without their catalyst Jacoby Ellsbury, which will hurt their offense as a whole. As a result, I like Zimmermann as a GPP flier, but I’m hesitant to use him in cash games.

The Mets offense really struggles to generate offense. Couple the fact that they are giving away some outs in their lineup with the fact that they play in Citi Field and you have a recipe for offensive failure. Carlos Martinez has struggled his last few times out for the Cardinals, but he has the type of stuff I love for GPPs. Martinez is dealing with a 9.68 K/9 and is getting groundballs over 50% of the time. He’s been touched up by the homerun ball so far this year (1.58 HR/9) but Citi Field should help his cause. He remains a GPP option as well as a second or third tier cash game play.

Last but not least, I’m filling some GPP rosters with young left-hander Carlos Rodon. Rodon will get a matchup with an Indians squad that is primarily left-handed. Rodon has great strikeout potential but his problem will be lasting in the game. He’s just recently been called up to the big leagues and hasn’t yet been stretched out. I’m worried about his potential to go deep in the game, but otherwise he’s a GPP play.

Stack Options

An ugly slate of games does provide some nice offensive cushion tonight. The game that first caught my eye was the game in Camden Yards. Fans will be in the stands, and balls might be landing there tonight. Roenis Elias has struggled with home runs in his brief career, and he’s getting a huge negative park shift having to face a tough Orioles squad on their home turf. The Orioles have the potential to get very right-handed, which oozes trouble for Elias. I love Adam Jones ($4,400) at an absurdly low price for his skill set. I can also get behind any other of the right-handed hitters in good lineup spots. Look towards Manny Machado ($4,300) and Steve Pearce ($3,700) as potential tournament fliers.

The Rogers Centre is always a run scoring haven. I expect that might be the case again tonight. The difficulty in this game is that the hitters from both teams typically carry a fairly hefty price tag. Getting exposure to Jose Bautista ($4,700), Edwin Encarnacion ($5,100), Josh Donaldson ($4,600) or Mike Trout ($5,700) is going to cost you, but the upside is there. On a night when the pitching isn’t going to entirely drain your salary pool, I feel like you need to spend up in some of these spots, especially in tournaments. Currently both of these teams are sitting with team totals at or above four runs, so don’t shy away from them.

Perhaps you got burned by the Pittsburgh Pirates and Francisco Liriano last night. You are not alone. While the Pirates themselves probably don’t feel bad for you, they’re going to indirectly make it up to you tonight. Somehow Mike Pelfrey is dancing his way through starts, limiting hard contact and avoiding the inevitable blow up we know is coming. The Pirates have started to swing the bats a little bit better, but still haven’t broken out this season. PNC Park is a pitchers’ park, but there is room to score here. On a night where ownership levels might be sprinkled around cash games, Pirates players carry significant tournament appeal. Their team total is currently sitting around 4.5 runs and is trending ever so slightly upwards. Perhaps tonight is the night that Cutch gets on track?

By default I have to mention the Tigers and the Red Sox as stack options tonight. The Tigers are similar to the Blue Jays in that they possess a lot of plus bats and matchups, but are priced accordingly. They have a team total that is approaching five runs, and they shouldn’t have any trouble eclipsing that mark against Kyle Lohse. Lohse is only getting groundballs at a 33% clip and he’s not exactly dominating hitters with strikeouts (7.17 K/9) – that leaves a lot of room for fly balls. Balls in the air can translate to balls over the fence. The Tigers have a lot of right-handed power in Miguel Cabrera($5,400), JD Martinez ($4,400) and Yoenis Cespedes ($4,400), so try to take advantage of it.

The Red Sox offense hasn’t been as good as expected this year, but it still rates as one of the better offenses. A matchup with right-hander Phil Klein might be the remedy to a season of woes. David Ortiz ($4,500) is again one of my favorite players tonight.

Last but not least is the game in Coors Field. Instead of dedicating an entire blurb to this game, I figured I’d include it at the bottom. Yes, it is one of the more relevant games of the night as a pair of mediocre right-handers square off in the best park for runs, but everyone knows that. All players from this game are in play, and I particularly love Rockies left-handed bats near the top of the order. Sneaking in a Phillie or two for value won’t haunt you.

Player Rankings

Catcher

  1. Russell Martin -$4,400- Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Wilin Rosario-$3,600 – Colorado Rockies
  3. Nick Hundley -$3,500 – Colorado Rockies

First Basemen

  1. David Ortiz – $4,500 – Boston Red Sox
  2. Miguel Cabrera– $5,400 – Detroit Tigers
  3. Edwin Encarnacion-$5,100 – Toronto Blue Jays

Second Basemen

  1. Neil Walker -$3,900 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  2. Ian Kinsler -$4,500 – Detroit Tigers
  3. Dee Gordon -$5,100 – Miami Marlins

Shortstops

  1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,500 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Freddy Galvis -$4,300 – Philadelphia Phillies
  3. Hanley Ramirez -$4,900 – Boston Red Sox

Third Basemen

  1. Josh Donaldson -$4,600 – Toronto Blue Jays
  2. Nolan Arenado -$4,500 – Colorado Rockies
  3. Manny Machado -$4,100 – Baltimore Orioles

Outfield

  1. Carlos Gonzalez -$4,600 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Adam Jones -$4,400 – Baltimore Orioles
  3. Jose Bautista -$4,700 – Toronto Blue Jays
  4. Andrew McCutchen -$5,200 – Pittsburgh Pirates
  5. Charlie Blackmon-$4,600 – Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers

  1. Tyson Ross -$9,000 – San Diego Padres
  2. Jake Odorizzi -$8,500 – Tampa Bay Rays
  3. Carlos Martinez -$7,200 –St. Louis Cardinals
  4. Bartolo Colon -$7,700 – New York Mets
  5. Carlos Rodon -$6,400 – Chicago White Sox
  6. Shane Greene -$6,000 – Detroit Tigers

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