Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s six-game afternoon slate and six-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

The only game with a real concern of rain appears to be Seattle at Baltimore. Because it’s an 11:35 A.M. Eastern start, they’ll probably be able to get the game in through the course of the afternoon, but there could be delays. For that reason, you might be wary of the starting pitchers in that game, but hitters should be fine. As for wind, there’s a 15 mph wind blowing out to left in Boston, but that appears to be the only impactful wind in the forecast.

Pitching Perspective

The afternoon slate has to begin with the matchup between Clayton Kershaw ($12,400) and Madison Bumgarner ($10,500). Despite Bumgarner being the cheaper option of the two, my model actually has Kershaw graded as the better value. Kershaw is getting a sight bump from the matchup, and Bumgarner is getting a little downgrade from the matchup. But primarily Kershaw’s unadjusted projection is just so far ahead of Bumgarner’s, which is why my model likes Kershaw’s value better. As we’ll get to shortly, there are some options to go cheap at pitcher in the afternoon slate, but I may pay up for pitching there.

The best value option in the afternoon is a risky one as Jaime Garcia ($7,400) makes his return to the St. Louis rotation. I’ve always been a fan of Garcia who has always had better than average control and at least an average ability to miss bats. He also owns a 55.5 percent career groundball rate and has a favorable home park. He won’t be in that home park today, but he will be in pitching in Citi Field, another pitcher-friendly park, and he’ll be up against the Mets who are a good mathcup for left-handers. There’s certainly some concern about how deep in the game he’ll be able to go, so maybe he’s only a GPP option.

For a bargain option in the afternoon slate, my model likes Chris Tillman ($6,300). But I don’t trust Tillman one iota. His strikeout and walk skills have been horrendous this year, and he has an issue keeping balls in the park, which is a problem since he’s pitching at home today. I’ll pass there.

Instead, I’ll take a flier on Archie Bradley ($5,100). He’s got a good matchup against the Marlins who are 18 percent worse than league average against right-handed pitching and have the eighth highest strikeout rate against them. The game is also in Miami instead of Bradley’s hitter-friendly home park in Arizona. To be fair, Bradley’s strikeout and walk skills have been just as bad as Tillman’s if not worse. But Bradley has a nice 57.4 percent groundball rate and is pitching in a much more favorable park, so his downside is probably more limited. Plus, Bradley is $1,200 cheaper than Tillman, and you’re going to need all the extra cash you can get to pay up for Kershaw.

In the evening, Julio Teheran ($8,800) and Danny Salazar ($9,300) are your expensive options. Salazar has the better unadjusted projection by a decent margin, but Teheran surpasses him in the adjusted projection thanks to boosts for matchup and ballpark while Salazar gets downgraded for both of those factors. But screw the model. Give me Salazar and his 30.1 percent K-BB%. That’s the best K-BB% among starters with at least 30 innings this year. Max Scherzer is in second at 25.9 percent. Meanwhile, Teheran has essentially a league average strikeout rate and a below average walk rate. I may not pay up for a pitcher in the evening slate, but if I do, give me the skills of Salazar.

But the reason I may not pay up for pitching in the evening is because the two best value grades of the day belong to pitchers going in the evening. The best value grade, by a mile, belongs to Odrisamer Despaigne ($4,900). It should be no surprise at this price point that Despaigne is a risky play, but I must point out that there was some question as to whether Despaigne would get another start after allowing eight and seven runs in his last two starts. For that reason, the hook could be quick, so he’s best saved for GPPs. However, he gets a big bump from facing the strikeout-heavy Cubs as well as from the game being played in Petco. He’s been brutal lately, yes, but there’s a chance for excellent return.

The less risky value play is Jesse Chavez ($7,200). His 2.63 ERA to date has been fueled by some luck with home runs, but his xFIP and SIERA sit right where they were last year in the mid-threes. With an above average strikeout rate and average walk rate, Chavez is a reliable option. He’s getting moderate bumps thanks to matchup and ball park today, so his downside should be fairly limited.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

As far as team heavy stacks go in the afternoon slate, my picks are pretty chalky. Of the players with a projection for the day that is at least one standard deviation above the mean, the only two teams going in the afternoon with more than four players who meet that criteria are Colorado and Detroit. So yes, my advice is Coors and the oft-stacked Tigers. Revolutionary, I know. But if you like to stack one team in GPPs, that’s where I’d look. And those are the primary teams from which I would pick hitters.

The other high-ish Vegas total in the afternoon slate is the Seattle at Baltimore game. Obviously that’s a nice ballpark for offense. My model has Tillman having a better day than J.A. Happ and Vegas has Baltimore as the favorite, but I prefer the Mariners offense there given how I feel about Tillman. Happ is solid, despite the fact that this isn’t the ideal situation for him. I think Robinson Cano ($3,900, 2B), Nelson Cruz ($5,400) and Kyle Seager ($3,700) make for a decent mini-stack, though Cruz’s price is way too high. Given the need to get Kershaw in your lineups, he may not be an option.

In the evening slate, Cleveland and Boston are your options for team-heavy GPP stacks and the teams from which I would primarily pick hitters. They’re both facing left-handed starters, and of the two I really prefer Boston because Cleveland’s lineup is too lefty-heavy. And as mentioned, the only impactful wind of the day appears to be in Boston, and it favors the offense. Focus on the righties in that lineup like Mookie, Hanley, Pedroia, Victorino and Napoli.

Vegas also has the Angels at Jays game with a high total at nine runs. I don’t see enough there to go with a team-heavy stack of five or more players from those teams, but the usual suspects are obviously in play for mini-stacks. For LA that’s Calhoun, Trout, Pujols, and for the Jays that’s Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Carlos Santana – $4,400 – Cleveland Indians
2. Nick Hundley – $3,400 – Colorado Rockies
3. Wilin Rosario – $4,400 – Colorado Rockies
4. Carlos Ruiz – $3,500 – Philadelphia Phillies
5. Evan Gattis– $3,400 – Houston Astros
6. Russell Martin – $4,300 – Toronto Blue Jays

First Base

1. Albert Pujols – $4,200 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Adam Laroche – $3,600 – Chicago White Sox
3. Mike Napoli – $4,000 – Boston Red Sox
4. Paul Goldschmidt – $5,000 – Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Ryan Howard – $4,000 – Philadelphia Phillies
6. Justin Bour – $2,600 – Miami Marlins

Second Base

1. Jose Altuve – $4,300 – Houston Astros
2. Dustin Pedroia – $4,100 – Boston Red Sox
3. Robinson Cano – $3,900 – Seattle Mariners
4. D.J. Lemahieu – $3,600 – Colorado Rockies
5. Devon Travis – $3,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
6. Johnny Giavotella – $2,700 – Los Angeles Angels

Third Base

1. Kyle Seager – $3,700 – Seattle Mariners
2. Miguel Cabrera – $5,400 – Detroit Tigers
3. Manny Machado – $4,300 – Baltimore Orioles
4. Evan Longoria – $4,000 – Tampa Bay Rays
5. Pablo Sandoval – $4,500 – Boston Red Sox
6. Conor Gillaspie – $2,900 – Chicago White Sox

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $5,300 – Colorado Rockies
2. Hanley Ramirez – $4,800 – Boston Red Sox
3. Rafael Ynoa – $2,300 – Colorado Rockies
4. Xander Bogaerts – $3,500 – Boston Red Sox
5. Jose Ramirez – $3,400 – Cleveland Indians
6. Freddy Galvis – $3,800 – Philadelphia Phillies

Outfield

1. Mike Trout – $5,300 – Los Angeles Angels
2. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,400 – Colorado Rockies
3. Mookie Betts – $4,300 – Boston Red Sox
4. Charlie Blackmon – $4,200 – Colorado Rockies
5. George Springer – $4,200 – Houston Astros
6. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,200 – Detroit Tigers
7. Christian Yelich – $4,000 – Miami Marlins
8. Shane Victorino – $3,800 – Boston Red Sox
9. Shin-soo Choo – $4,000 – Texas Rangers
10. Adam Eaton – $3,500 – Chicago White Sox

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw – $12,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jesse Chavez – $7,200 – Oakland Athletics
3. Odrisamer Despaigne – $4,900 – San Diego Padres
4. Jaime Garcia – $7,400 – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Danny Salazar – $9,300 – Cleveland Indians
6. Archie Bradley – $5,100 – Arizona Diamondbacks

*Rankings are price sensitive