Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s fifteen game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

Rain is a huge DFS pain in the ass, and thankfully there doesn’t appear to be any precipitation in the forecast tonight. As for wind, there are hitter friendly winds in the Bronx, Pittsburgh and especially in Boston where a 17 mph wind is blowing out to right.

Pitching Perspective

If you want to pay up for pitching, go with the most expensive option on the board today, Max Scherzer ($12,700). That price tag is obviously going to make building a lineup more difficult, but with a good matchup against Philadelphia, my model has Scherzer with the highest projection of the day by a good margin. And my model has his price tag of $12,700 being right on the money. There’s obviously not really any potential value at that price, but it’s an appropriate price.

From the expensive-but-not-too-expensive group of pitchers ($8,500 – $9,900), Carlos Carrasco has both the best projection and the best value grade in my model. I wrote about Carrasco for FantasyPros.com today, and here is what I had to say.

Carrasco is seemingly an enigma. His strikeout and walk skills, as well as the indicators like xFIP that are largely based on strikeout and walk skills, are always much, much better than average. Unfortunately, his fantasy results aren’t always as good, in part due to bad luck and in part due to some of Carrasco’s issues in managing contact. But the variable factors today (matchup and ball park) are in Carrasco’s favor, which means the bad luck and/or contact management issues are less likely to be an issue, and his skills will have the chance to shine through. With his opponent, the Reds, being 13 percent below league average against right-handed pitching and the game being in pitcher-friendly Cleveland, Carrasco’s downside is limited and pairs nicely with his ability to go big each time he takes the hill.

Gerrit Cole ($9,200) and Jeff Samardzija ($8,700) also grade out decently in that price range, but Carrasco is my preferred play.

From the mid-price range ($6,500 – $8,500), my model likes Alex Wood ($8,000). The reason is that Wood has an excellent matchup against the Brewers, who have the third highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching, and the game is being played in pitcher-friendly Atlanta. But I’m skeptical of Wood because his strikeout rate is a paltry 15.8 percent this year after being 23.6 percent as a starter prior to this year. His swinging strike rate is way, way down, and I don’t trust him to take advantage of the matchup with Milwaukee.

I prefer Noah Syndergaard ($7,500) from that price range. He has a decent matchup with the Pirates who have been 14 percent worse than league average against right-handed pitching this year. Pittsburgh is only middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts, but they’re still an above average matchup for Syndergaard. As for Syndergaard himself, he has struggled some with control in his first two starts, but the strikeouts have been there. I’m a little wary of his fly ball lean in his first two starts, but the game is in Pittsburgh, which is not at all a homer-friendly park.

If you’re looking for a cheap flyer, give me Josh Collmenter ($4,700) or Marco Estrada ($5,400). They both have good matchups against teams who strike out quite a bit in the Cubs and the Mariners, respectively. Collmenter doesn’t strike anyone out, so he may not be able to take advantage of the matchup, but at his price, he won’t have to put up big strikeout numbers to return value. Estrada does excel in the strikeout department, so he’s got a fair bit of upside today. But he does struggle with control and home runs, so he’s purely a tournament play.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

As always, let’s get the game in Coors out of the way first. In addition to Coors being offense-friendly, there are a pair of not-so-great pitchers starting in that game today. For Colorado you have Kyle Kendrick and his 6.70 ERA. Per my calculations, Kendrick has allowed 1.59 DK points per left-handed batter faced since the start of 2014. That’s worse than any other pitcher in action today. Second worst is the other starter in this game, Ryan Vogelsong, who has allowed left-handers to take him deep eight times this year despite having faced only 72 left-handers. That means 11.1% of lefties who have faced Vogelsong have gone deep. That’s particuarly insane as the league average home run rate on fly balls is only 10.7 percent. I can’t argue against any left-handed hitter in this game, high ownership percentages be damned.

The other teams from which you could stack five or six players are the Nationals and the Yankees. The Nats are facing Sean O’Sullivan who allows the most DK fantasy points per right-handed batter faced, and the fourth highest DK points per left-handed batter faced. Bryce Harper ($5,500, OF), Ryan Zimmerman ($4,600, 1B/3B), Ian Desmond ($4,400, SS), Denard Span ($4,700, OF) and Wilson Ramos ($3,800, C) could make for a good stack. Desmond, Ramos and Zimmerman also have good values that make them good cash game plays.

The Yanks will face Colby Lewis, who is virtually tied with O’Sullivan for fourth among probable starters today for most DK points allowed per left-handed batter faced. Given that the Yankees can run out a very lefty-heavy lineup, all Yankee lefties are in play today. Brian McCann ($3,700, C), Chase Headley ($3,900, 3B) and Mark Teixeira ($4,400, 1B) are nice values.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Wilson Ramos – $3,800 – Washington Nationals
2. Brian McCann – $3,700 – New York Yankees
3. Carlos Santana – $4,100 – Cleveland Indians
4. Buster Posey – $5,000 – San Francisco Giants

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $4,800 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Freddie Freeman – $4,000 – Atlanta Braves
3. Jose Abreu – $4,600 – Chicago White Sox
4. Mark Teixeira – $4,400 – New York Yankees

Second Base

1. Joe Panik – $4,000 – San Francisco Giant
2. Dee Gordon – $4,600 – Miami Marlins
3. Robinson Cano – $4,500 – Seattle Mariners
4. Jose Pirela – $3,000 – New York Yankees

Third Base

1. Ryan Zimmerman – $4,600 – Washington Nationals
2. Chase Headley – $3,900 – New York Yankees
3. Kris Bryant – $5,000 – Chicago Cubs

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,600 – Colorado Rockies
2. Ian Desmond – $4,400 – Washington Nationals
3. Starlin Castro – $3,900 – Chicago Cubs

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,700 – Colorado Rockies
2. Charlie Blackmon – $4,400 – Colorado Rockies
3. Angel Pagan – $4,600 – San Francisco Giants
4. Mike Trout – $5,600 – Los Angeles Angels
5. Ryan Braun – $4,500 – Milwaukee Brewers
6. Nori Aoki – $4,400 – San Francisco Giants
7. Christian Yelich – $4,000 – Miami Marlins
8. Nick Markakis – $3,200 – Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitcher

1. Carlos Carrasco – $8,800 – Cleveland Indians
2. Max Scherzer – $12,700 – Washington Nationals
3. Noah Syndergaard – $7,500 – New York Mets
4. Gerrit Cole – $9,200 – Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Marco Estrada – $5,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
6. Josh Collmenter – $4,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks

*Rankings are price sensitive