Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s full slate of games on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

There are two games with serious rain issues today, and they happen to be two of three games with the highest Vegas lines of the night: Dodgers at Rockies and Reds at White Sox. The forecast in Colorado calls for thunderstorms from three until midnight, so the chances are good we’ll have the third postponed game of the week in Colorado. In Chicago, the forecast calls for thunderstorms from six to ten with a forecast of just “rain” after ten. If the weather works out more favorably, hitters from all four teams warrant consideration. But as it looks right now, both games seem doubtful to be played. I hope that ends up being the case, because I’m playing golf tomorrow afternoon, and overhauling lineups on mobile in between shots is tough.

The other game with some rain concerns is Kansas City at Detroit, but I’m not on anyone in that game.

Before lock tomorrow, make sure to check DailyBaseballData.com for forecasts, and check out @KevinRothWx for DFS-specific forecasts.

Pitching Perspective

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Finding a pitcher you can trust today is tough. Matt Harvey ($11,000) and David Price ($10,400) are the most expensive pitchers of the day, but my model thinks they’re way overpriced. Of the two, Harvey is the one I’d prefer against a Phillies team he could easily shut out. But I’m not touching David Price against the hot-hitting, never-strike-out Royals. Similarly, Sonny Gray ($9,800) also grades out as being overpriced, though not as much so as Harvey and Price.

That leaves us with Cole Hamels ($9,900), Gio Gonzalez ($9,500), Francisco Liriano ($9,100), James Shields ($8,800) and Michael Wacha ($8,300) as the options to be your SP1. I suppose you could use two guys from that group, but I prefer not to spend on the higher end for both of my pitchers. The first of this quintet I’d throw out is Hamels. He’s missing the zone quite a bit more so far this year than he has in the past and is walking way too many batters, which is the primary reason his SIERA sits at 4.00. He’s also going up against Harvey, so his chances of a W seem slim.

The guy I prefer is Liriano. He too is walking too many batters, but that’s old hat for Liriano. The good news is that he also continues to strike out a ton of batters. His swinging strike rate remains up around 13 percent, so he always has the potential for a big day. Admittedly, his opponent, St. Louis, doesn’t strike out much, so that may limit his upside. But he has the second highest projection of the day according to my model, and he also grades out as being worthy of his price tag.

If I were going to spend for a second pitcher from that group, it would be Shields. I don’t like the matchup against Arizona in Arizona, but Shields has a ridiculous 15.1 percent swinging strike rate this year. That’s, ummm, quite good. I don’t know if I totally buy it because his velocity is down again so far this year, and I don’t see anything indicating his secondary stuff is new or improved so far. But my model likes him about as much as Liriano in terms of production and slightly more in terms of value. I’ll be going with Liriano and a cheaper option, but Shields/Liriano is where I’d go if I paid up for two pitchers.

As for those cheaper options, it feels more like a gamble today than most days. As I see it, the value options are Nathan Karns ($5,700), Jered Weaver ($7,000) and Jimmy Nelson ($6,200).  Weaver has a good value grade because he’s playing my Astros, who strikeout a lot, in his favorable home ballpark. But I just can’t stomach him. The bottom has fallen out of his velocity, and he has 4.77 xFIP to go along with his 6.29 ERA. He simply can’t induce weak contact with the complete lack of velocity he’s working with right now.

Of the other two, I probably prefer Nelson. He and Karns have roughly the same strikeout rate, but Karns’ walk rate is an unseemly 12.3 percent. As for the strikeouts, Nelson has more uspide in that respect today against the Cubs who have the highest strikeout rate in the league against-right-handed pitchers like Nelson. Six strikeouts seems like a fairly safe floor for Nelson. Karns will be facing the Rangers who don’t strikeout nearly as much as the Cubs, but their offensive performance is much lower than average against right-handed pitching per wRC+. The Rangers are on a nice little run with the bats as their early season BABIP woes are starting to even out, but they still don’t scare me at all.

Stack Options

If the games in Colorado and Chicago end up being played, I like the Dodgers in Coors and both the Reds and White Sox in Chicago. Let me quickly list the players from each team that could be stacked, then I’ll move on as my guess is neither game gets played.

Dodgers: Joc Pederson ($5,400, OF), Jimmy Rollins ($4,300, SS), Howie Kendrick ($4,900, 2B), Adrian Gonzalez ($5,000, 1B), Alex Guerrero ($3,600, 2B/3B), Andre Ethier ($4,000, OF) Yasmani Grandal ($4,100, C)

Reds: Billy Hamilton ($4,800, OF), Marlon Byrd ($4,600, OF), Joey Votto ($4,600, 1B), Todd Frazier ($5,000, 1B/3B), Brandon Phillips ($4,400, 2B) Jay Bruce ($4,800, OF)

White Sox: Micah Johnson ($2,800, 2B), Adam Eaton ($4,200, OF), Melky Cabrera ($4,500, OF), Jose Abreu ($4,800, 1B) Adam Laroche ($4,400, 1B)

The other obvious stack option of the day is Toronto against Wade Miley at home (where they’re impervious to rain). The top of the Jays order is stacked with right-handers who could do some serious damage against the left-handed Miley. The top of the order should be Devon Travis ($3,300, 2B), Josh Donaldson ($4,400, 3B), Jose Bautista ($4,900, OF), Edwin Encarnacion ($4,900, 1B), Russell Martin ($4,800, C) and Kevin Pillar ($4,000, OF).

On the other side of that game, the Red Sox also look good against Aaron Sanchez. If you like Sox, I like Mookie Betts ($4,800, OF), Dustin Pedroia ($4,400, 2B), David Ortiz ($4,500, 1B), Pablo Sandoval ($4,200, 3B) and Blake Swihart ($3,500, C).

I also have to mention the Indians as I generally tend to gravitate towards them when they face a right-hander, especially when that right-hander is Mike Pelfrey. I love their top three of Jason Kipnis ($5,200, 2B), Michael Brantley ($5,500, OF) and Carlos Santana ($4,400, 1B/C). Brandon Moss ($4,900, 1B/OF) and Michael Bourn ($3,900, OF) can also be used with them if you want to go Indians heavy.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Yasmani Grandal – $4,100 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Carlos Santana – $4,400 – Cleveland Indians
3. Wilson Ramos – $4,100 – Washington Nationals
4. Russell Martin – $4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays

First Base

1. Adrian Gonzalez – $5,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Joey Votto – $4,600 – Cincinnati Reds
3. David Ortiz – $4,500 – Boston Red Sox
4. Adam Laroche – $4,400 – Chicago White Sox

Second Base

1. Micah Johnson – $2,800 – Chicago White Sox
2. Alex Guerrero – $3,600 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Howie Kendrick – $4,900 – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Brandon Phillips – $4,400 – Cincinnati Reds
5. Jason Kipnis – $5,200 – Cleveland Indians

Third Base

1. Josh Donaldson – $4,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
2. Ryan Zimmerman – $4,100 – Washington Nationals
3. Pablo Sandoval – $4,200 – Boston Red Sox
4. Todd Frazier – $5,000 – Cincinnati Reds

Shortstop

1. Jimmy Rollins – $4,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,900 – Colorado Rockies
3. Ian Desmond – $4,200 – Washington Nationals
4. Addison Russell – $3,900 – Chicago Cubs

Outfield

1. Joc Pederson – $5,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jose Bautista – $4,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Melky Cabrera – $4,500 – Chicago White Sox
4. Adam Eaton – $4,200 – Chicago White Sox
5. Billy Hamilton – $4,800 – Cincinnati Reds
6. Jay Bruce – $4,800 – Cincinnati Reds
7. Wil Myers – $4,500 – San Diego Padres
8. Mookie Betts – $4,800 – Boston Red Sox
9. Brock Holt – $3,200 – Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitcher

1. Francisco Liriano – $9,100 – Pittsburgh Pirates
2. James Shields – $8,800 – San Diego Padres
3. Gio Gonzalez – $9,500 – Washington Nationals
4. Matt Harvey – $11,000 – New York Mets
5. Jimmy Nelson – $6,200 – Milwaukee Brewers
6. Nathan Karns – $5,700 – Tampa Bay Rays

*Rankings are price sensitive