Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy : May 9, 2015
Good morning everyone! Below we’ve got a discussion on the pitching situation for tonight’s nine game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got a discussion on which teams are the best to pick hitters from as well as player rankings for each position.
As of right now, it appears the only weather concerns will be in Colorado. Please monitor these closely before locking in lineups.
Pitching Perspective
Today is a Clayton Kershaw day, but one like no other. Each year, thanks to pitching in the NL West, Kershaw gets a few cracks at Coors Field. He carries a reasonable price tag for being Kershaw ($10,700) but the insane weather, as well as the fact that this is being played in the best hitters park in baseball has me off of him. If the weather holds, I feel like he is a great tournament option because of his lethal K/9 and upside, but otherwise, I’m staying away from him.
Another long-haired left-hander from the NL West is enticing though. Madison Bumgarner ($11,000) is the highest priced starter tonight, but for good reason. He’s pitching in an awesome park and the game currently has a total of 6.5 (Marlins team total is edging under 3). The Marlins are mostly right-handed, but Bumgarner will take away the platoon advantage from the top 2 hitters that will be setting the table for Giancarlo Stanton. I’m not going to be frightened off him.
After the top two, it sort of drops off. Dallas Keuchel ($8,600) has been awesome this year, but he still isn’t a DFS commodity. He simply doesn’t record enough strikeouts to warrant being selected on a strikeout heavy site (6.0 K/9). Keuchel is getting a ton of groundballs and will actually get a bump in terms of park, but he’s only a secondary or GPP option for me.
On the other side of this Matt Shoemaker ($7,400) will get to deal with a cooled off Astros lineup. I’m not particularly in love with Shoemaker’s skill set, but he does sport a pretty solid K/9 (8.25) and will deal with a less potent Astros lineup without George Springer. This game only has a total of 7, and therefore Shoemaker makes my list as a solid GPP option.
Don’t get me wrong, I do not necessarily care for Jon Niese’s ($7,300) skill set, much like Shoemaker. However, he does get the lowly Phillies offense. Niese will take away the platoon advantage of almost all of the Phillies best hitters, and he does have a nice price tag. Because of this, I’m ok with using him as a salary relief option, however he has a really low ceiling and floor.
The Pirates have been pretty brutal offensively, but they’ve shown signs of life in the past few games. Carlos Martinez ($6,900) got roughed up pretty badly against the Cubs last time out, but he’ll get a positive park shift and face a right-hand heavy Pittsburgh Pirates offense. Martinez sports a K/9 between 8 and 9 and has a super cheap price point. He becomes a solid second tier option as well as a GPP flier.
Stack Options
There are not a lot of pitching options. That means everyone is in play offensively.
First I’ll mention the Coors Field game. The weather again looks bleak for the Denver area, but it is still a ways out before game time. If this gets to a point where it is clear enough to play, you should be on Dodgers hitters. The Dodgers have been really solid offensively and get a huge park shift in their favor heading to Coors. Joc Pederson ($5,200) is finally priced appropriately, but I’ll be staying away from him anyway against a left-hander. Look towards Howie Kendrick ($4,700), Justin Turner ($4,400) and Alex Guerrero ($3,400) to exploit the platoon advantage.
I won’t be using Rockies guys against Clayton Kershaw, but if you’re looking to in tournaments, focus on the right-handed hitters – particularly Troy Tulowitzki ($4,800) and Nolan Arenado ($4,300).
Assuming the weather holds and everyone is forced to move off of the game in Colorado, move towards the game at US Cellular Field. DraftKings is including the second game of a day-night doubleheader that should make for a lot of runs scored. Be careful before rostering players from this game to make sure they are in the lineups – but assuming whoever you are considering is in the lineup, they’re in play.
Carlos Rodon will be making his first big league start against Jason Marquis, who is making his one millionth (hyperbole). For the Reds, Devon Mesoraco ($4,600) should get to DH and therefore slot into the cleanup spot. Marlon Byrd ($4,700), Todd Frazier ($5,200) and Brandon Phillips ($4,600) will all have the platoon advantage versus Rodon. Frazier is my favorite of this bunch for cash games, but I’m on board with Reds stacks for tournaments.
The other side of this is a little safer for cash games, because Jason Marquis is terrible. The White Sox top-5 hitters should all be in play in all formats. Adam Eaton ($3,400) and Melky Cabrera ($3,800) are grossly underpriced and provide essential value. Jose Abreu ($4,500) and Adam Laroche ($3,200) are also both underpriced and are in play in all formats. You’ll want to have exposure to this game in all formats.
The game in Miller Park could be fun for DFS purposes as well. The Brewers typically destroy left-handed pitching, and Travis Wood will be on the bump for the Cubbies. Carlos Gomez ($5,200) was not in the lineup last night, but if he is tonight he’s a great play for tournaments. Ryan Braun ($4,900) homered last night and has historically been a brute to left-handed pitching. Khris Davis ($3,900) possesses a lot of power and has a great price tag facing a flyball pitcher like Travis Wood.
The Cubs side of this is also in play against a struggling Kyle Lohse. Lohse’s K/9 and GB% has gone down and he’s yielding a HR/FB % of 20% – that is not good for him, but good for the Cubs. Although they strike out a lot, the Cubs have a lot of team power. Anthony Rizzo ($5,100) is an MVP candidate in the NL and is relatively underpriced due to his matchup. He’s safe for cash games and GPPs. Sprinkle in Kris Bryant ($4,400), Jorge Soler ($4,100) and Miguel Montero’s cheap catcher tag ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid tournament stack.
Lastly, the Padres have moved away from Petco Park and get a huge positive park shift playing in Chase Field in Arizona. They’ll face young right-hander Chase Anderson and are a great tournament option. Corey Spangenberg ($2,900) has been swinging the bat really well out of the second spot in the order and has a very reasonable price point. All the big boppers, plus Yangervis Solarte ($3,400) are on my radar against Anderson.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Miguel Montero -$3,300 – Chicago Cubs
- Devin Mesoraco – $4,600 – Cincinnati Reds
- AJ Ellis -$3,300 – Los Angeles Dodgers (weather, should catch Kershaw)
First Basemen
- Jose Abreu – $4,500 – Chicago White Sox
- Anthony Rizzo -$5,100 Chicago Cubs
- Todd Frazier -$5,200 – Cincinnati Reds
- Adam Laroche -$3,200 – Chicago White Sox
Second Basemen
- Howie Kendrick -$4,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers (weather)
- Justin Turner -$4,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers (weather)
- Corey Spangenberg -$2,900 – San Diego Padres
- Robinson Cano -$3,900 – Seattle Mariners (price point too low for skill set)
Shortstops
- Troy Tulowitzki – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies (weather)
- Jimmy Rollins -$4,000 – Los Angeles Dodgers (weather)
- Jean Segura -$4,000 – Milwaukee Brewers
Third Basemen
- Kris Bryant -$4,400 – Chicago Cubs
- Yangervis Solarte -$3,500 – San Diego Padres (if hitting top 5)
- Alex Guerrero -$3,400 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Outfield
- Mike Trout -$5,400 – Los Angeles Angels
- Carlos Gomez -$5,200 – Milwaukee Brewers
- Ryan Braun -$4,900 – Milwaukee Brewers
- Melky Cabrera -$3,800 – Chicago White Sox
- Matt Kemp -$4,700 – San Diego Padres
- Marlon Byrd -$4,700 – Cincinnati Reds
- Justin Upton $5,200 – San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers
- Madison Bumgarner -$11,000 – San Francisco Giants
- Clayton Kershaw -$10,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers (weather + Coors Field)
- Dallas Keuchel -$8,600 –Houston Astros
- Jon Niese -$7,300 – New York Mets
- Matt Shoemaker -$7,400 – Los Angeles Angels
- Carlos Martinez -$6,900 – St. Louis Cardinals
- Tyson Ross -$8,200 – San Diego Padres