Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

There are seven pitchers that cost more than $9,000 today, and only two appear to be worth their price tag according to my model. The first, and the pitcher with the highest projection of the day, is Madison Bumgarner ($12,400). MadBum is on an incredible tear right now as he allowed six runs in five August starts with 53 strikeouts compared to only four walks in 37 2/3 innings. His matchup with the Dodgers tonight is about average and he’s facing Zack Greinke, so his odds of getting a win may not be as high as normal. But wins are fairly insignificant on DraftKings. Even if his matchup is average, it’s much better than the one Greinke has against the Giants.

The other expensive option tonight is Johnny Cueto ($10,100). He’ll face the Tigers, which is a slightly below average matchup, but his price tag has slipped to a tempting level thanks to two bad outings in a row. He’s allowed six earned runs in each of his last two starts, but he has 11 strikeouts and one walk over 11 innings in those two starts with a .447 BABIP. Sometimes the hits all fall in a row. I’m not about to panic on Cueto, and at this price point he’s worth the risk of his poor recent performance given his much longer track record of success. I prefer Bumgarner both in terms of projection and value, but if you can’t afford Bumgarner and want a top SP1, Cueto is a viable alternative.

In the mid-price range ($6,500-$8,500) Anthony DeSclafani ($6,800) and Jon Niese ($6,500) are worth considering. Both have good matchups with DeSclafani facing the strikeout prone Cubs and Niese facing the not-as-bad-as-they-were-earlier-in-the-year Phillies. DeSclafani has more upside with the Cubs tied with the Astros for the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed hitters. But since adding Kyle Schwarber to the lineup, the Cubs can really load the top of their lineup with tough left-handed hitters. Niese is probably the safer play with better control and a better ability to keep the ball on the ground than DeSclafani, but Niese has struggled his last two times out, though one was in Colorado.

If you’re looking for bargains, consider Andrew Cashner ($6,100) and Chris Tillman ($5,300). Cashner doesn’t have a big advantage as far as matchup goes against a Rangers team that is above average against right-handed pitching. Cash has struggled against lefties this year, and Texas certainly has lefties that can hit. But Cash has been much better at home as you might expect with a 3.34 ERA at home compared to 4.55 on the road. There’s obviously some risk, but that’s the deal at this price point. As for Tillman, his 4.58 ERA and 4.53 xFIP inspire little confidence. But he does have a good matchup against the Rays who have the fifth highest strikeout rate and third lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching. It’s a risk I won’t be taking, but I had to point out that my model thinks there is value potential there.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

There’s a game in Coors between the D’Backs and Rockies and the Blue Jays are playing, so we could just stop here. But of the three teams, the team I like the most for a stack is Arizona against Kyle Kendrick for the Rockies. Kendrick has an ERA over 6.00 and an xFIP over 5.00 as well as a hard hit allowed rate of 34.9 percent. This will be the second game of a doubleheader, so lineups might end up being a bit weird for that one, but any D’Backs you can afford are in play.

As for the Rox, any left-hander facing Rubby de la Rosa is an option. RDLR’s xFIP against left-handers is almost two runs higher than it is against right, so Blackmon, Reyes, CarGo and Paulsen are all options if in the lineup. And for the Jays, they’ll face Cody Anderson who is making his 10th career start and owns a SIERA of 4.70. But unless you’re running multiple lineups, I’d pay for D’Backs if I were going to pay for an expensive stack.

If you’re looking for some potentially lesser-owned stacks, Cleveland and Houston are on my radar. The Tribe will be facing the Jays who will send Marco Estrada to the mound. Estrada has managed a 3.19 ERA so far, but his .234 BABIP is unsustainable. His xFIP is 4.76 and regression is coming. He’s had a bit of a reverse split this season, but for his career he’s been noticeably worse against left-handed hitters, which is something Cleveland has a lot of, especially at the top of the order. Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana in the middle of the order are two of my favorite plays, and Kipnis, Lindor and Chisenhall in the 1-2-5 spots can be played along with that duo. For a full six-man stack, Yan Gomes or Abraham Almonte could also be options.

As for the Astros, they’ve turned into a bit of righty-heavy lineup with Carlos Correa and Carlos Gomez being added to the mix. And that will be a good thing tonight at home against left-hander Roenis Elias who owns a 4.56 xFIP against right-handed hitters this season. Altuve, Correa, Gattis, Gomez, Lowrie and Carter hit 1-3-4-5-6-7 last night against a left-hander, and that would make for a solid stack if they go with the same lineup tonight. Marwin Gonzalez, Hank Conger, Max Stassi or Jake Marisnick could also be used to populate an Astros stack.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Yan Gomes – $3,200 – Cleveland Indians
2. Welington Castillo – $4,100 – Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $2,900 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Russell Martin – $4,200 – Toronto Blue Jays

First Base

1. Paul Goldschmidt – $6,400 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Chris Carter – $3,100 – Houston Astros
3. Evan Gattis – $3,700 – Houston Astros
4. Carlos Santana – $4,300 – Cleveland Indians

Second Base

1. Aaron Hill – $2,900 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Jose Altuve – $4,500 – Houston Astros
3. Steve Pearce – $2,800 – Baltimore Orioles

Third Base

1. Yasmany Tomas – $4,100 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Evan Longoria – $3,600 – Tampa Bay Rays
3. Kelly Johnson – $2,900 – New York Mets
4. Josh Donaldson – $5,500 – Toronto Blue Jays

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,200 -Toronto Blue Jays
2. Jed Lowrie – $3,200 – Houston Astros
3. Carlos Correa – $4,600 – Houston Astros

Outfield

1. David Peralta – $4,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Carlos Gomez – $3,700 – Houston Astros
3. A.J. Pollock – $6,000 – Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Jay Bruce – $4,000 – Cincinnati Reds
5. Ben Paulsen – $3,600 – Colorado Rockies
6. Jake Marisnick – $2,600 – Houston Astros
7. Michael Brantley – $5,400 – Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitcher

1. Madison Bumgarner – $12,400 – San Francisco Giants
2. Johnny Cueto – $10,100 – Kansas City Royals
3. Andrew Cashner – $6,100 – San Diego Padres
4. Anthony DeSclafani – $6,800 – Cincinnati Reds
5. Chris Tillman – $5,300 – Baltimore Orioles