Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Monday’s 12-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

Welcome to another edition of “Should You Pay Up for Clayton Kershaw?” It’ll cost you $15,500 today. He’s working on a six-game streak of starts where he’s been worth it in every start, and in a few of those starts he has been more than worth it. In those six starts combined he has a 0.96 ERA (1.95 xFIP) with 62 strikeouts compared to just six walks in 47 innings. Guhdamn. Today he has a great matchup against the Rockies who rank dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching by a wide margin. Their wRC+ against lefties is 64, and the second worst team has a wRC+ of 77. The Rox are also tied for the second highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Most importantly, this game is in LA and not Colorado, so all the variables are in Kershaw’s favor tonight. Pay up.

Of the other expensive pitchers ($9,000+), the only one I think is worth their price tag is Jordan Zimmermann ($9,100). He’s not a huge value or anything, but with an above average matchup against the Phillies, his price should maybe be closer to $10,000. I don’t think pairing Zimm with Kershaw is all that viable, and I wouldn’t pass up Kershaw to save some money, so Zimm may not be a practical option.

In the mid-price range ($7,000-$9,000), James Shields ($7,900) is the only guy that looks worth his price tag. But there are some things that make him risky. For one, he has struggled lately with a 4.94 ERA (5.03 xFIP) in his last four starts. Walks have also been an issue for Shields who has 15 walks in his last 23 1/3 innings and a 3.50 BB/9 for the season. He has also struggled with lefties allowing a 4.41 xFIP to lefties, and, finally, this game is in Arizona as opposed to San Diego. All that said, he’s a bit underpriced. He’s hard to trust, but there’s value potential here.

In the bargain bin, we’ve got a few options. First, my model loves Jon Gray ($5,900) as it typically does. He’s unlikely to get a win against Kershaw and the Dodgers, but the four points for a win on DraftKings aren’t nearly as important as they are on other sites. The most important variable is that the game is on the road for Gray, so he won’t have to battle Coors. He has a 2.35 ERA in 15 1/3 innings on the road this year along with a 3.60 xFIP. He’s priced well below average, and his performance on the road has been safely above average. I have no problem pairing him with his foe, Kershaw.

CC Sabatha and Kevin Gausman also have decent value grades among the cheap pitchers but not nearly as good as Gray’s. They’re all hard to trust, but you have to save a little money on your SP2 to make Kershaw work. If for some reason you like Sabathia or Gausman more than Gray, go with them. But I prefer Gray.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

The team with the highest implied run total in Vegas is also the only team with more than four hitters ranked in the top 50 of my rankings today. That team is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will face left-hander Kyle Lobstein, and the left-handed part is important because the Twins are pretty righty-heavy in their lineup. There are quite a few permutations of their potential lineup tonight, but Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano and Trevor Plouffe should hit 2-4-5 and are a great mini-stack even if you don’t go Twins-heavy with a stack. Other Twins who could be part of a team-heavy stack are Byron Buxton, Torii Hunter, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Escobar and Aaron Hicks.

Outside of the Twins, I don’t know that I see a great opportunity for a big team stack. If I had to pick one other team it would be Arizona. I mentioned Shields’ struggles against left-handers, and that gives a bump to Arizona’s lesser hitters. Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are good against anyone, but the matchup against Shields gives a boost to guys like Ender Inciarte, David Peralta and Jake Lamb. Those five could hit 1-2-3-4-6 in the lineup. If Jarrod Saltalamacchia were to be in the lineup, he’d likely fill that other spot in the top six and should be included in the stack as well. But if you’re not going with the stack, I’d just focus on the lefties if you want to use some D’Backs.

Other good spots to target are Cincinnati left-handers against Tim Hudson and Mets right-handers against Justin Nicolino. I’d prefer the Reds be playing in Cincinnati, but Billy Hamilton, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto could be a mini-stack option. They have hit 1-2-3 in the lineup recently, though that has not been a regular configuration. As for the Mets, Yoenis Cespedes, David Wright and Travis d’Arnuad are the guys to target. They tend to hit 2-4-6 in the lineup, so there may not be a mini-stack there. Also, Cespedes is pretty pricey, and d’Arnaud is no value himself, so you don’t have to force them into anything. Wright is more reasonably priced.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – $2,500 – Arizona Diamondbacks
2. J.P. Arencibia – $2,600 – Tampa Bay Rays
3. Stephen Vogt – $3,900 – Oakland Athletics
4. Travis d’Arnaud – $4,800 – New York Mets

First Base

1. Joey Votto – $4,900 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Adrian Gonzalez – $3,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Carlos Santana – $3,800 – Cleveland Indians
4. Ryan Howard – $3,000 – Philadelphia Phillies

Second Base

1. Brian Dozier – $4,300 – Minnesota Twins
2. Jason Kipnis – $4,300 – Cleveland Indians
3. Steve Pearce – $3,100 – Baltimore Orioles

Third Base

1. Miguel Sano – $4,800 – Minnesota Twins
2. Trevor Plouffe – $4,000 – Minnesota Twins
3. David Wright – $4,300 – New York Mets
4. Lonnie Chisenhall – $3,000 – Cleveland Indians

Shortstop

1. Eduardo Nunez – $2,900 – Minnesota Twins
2. Eduardo Escobar – $3,100 – Minnesota Twins
3. Marcus Semien – $3,300 – Oakland Athletics

Outfield

1. Jay Bruce – $3,700 – Cincinnati Reds
2. Byron Buxton – $2,300 – Minnesota Twins
3. Billy Hamilton – $3,700 – Cincinnati Reds
4. Torii Hunter – $3,500 – Minnesota Twins
5. Mike Trout – $4,700 – Los Angeles Angels
6. Yoenis Cespedes – $5,600 – New York Mets
7. Michael Brantley – $4,900 – Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw – $15,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Jon Gray – $5,900 – Colorado Rockies
3. Jordan Zimmermann – $9,100 – Washington Nationals
4. James Shields – $7,900 – San Diego Padres
5. CC Sabathia – $6,200 – New York Yankees
6. Kevin Gausman – $4,600 – Baltimore Orioles