Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position. There’s a Millionaire Maker event tonight, so take a shot.

Pitching Perspective

Starting as we often do with the expensive pitchers of the day ($9,000+), we’ve got a fairly weak crop of pitchers at the top end today. Jacob deGrom is the most expensive pitcher of the day, and he has a good matchup against the Marlins at home. But my model thinks he’s a bit too pricey. There are four pitchers with a better projection than deGrom according to my model, but I’ll admit that deGrom feels safer than any of the guys with a better projection. If you have the room to fit deGrom in, I’m fine with it. But I wouldn’t try to force him into lineups.

The guy my model likes the most is Stephen Strasburg ($9,800). In his last six starts he has a 2.89 ERA (2.51 xFIP) with 48 strikeouts compared to just four walks in 37 1/3 innings. The only concern is that in his fifth start of that six game stretch he had a little injury issue and has his next turn in the rotation skipped. His last start was his return to the rotation after that skipped start and he struck out 13 Mets. But he allowed two home runs as he did in the game prior where he was injured. That’s the only thing that gives me pause. I’m just not positive he’s healthy. But his matchup is good (Philadelphia), and everything in his recent performance except for the minor injury is good.

The only other expensive pitcher I like is Jon Lester ($9,900). The Cubs and Pirates are playing a doubleheader today, and DraftKings actually had Jason Hammel listed as the probable starter for the night game as of this writing, but MLB.com and the Cubs website have Jon Lester as the starter in the second game of the twin bill. Hammel would be a decent mid-price option were he to start the night game, but my guess is Lester goes. Lester will be getting a positive park shift on the road, and the Pirates are a somewhat above average matchup for left-handed pitches as they rank mid-pack in wRC+ and have the ninth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

In the mid-price range ($6,500-$9,000), J.A. Happ ($7,500) looks like the value play of the day. He has a great matchup against the Cubs who rank 22nd in wRC+ and have the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching. And they have the highest strikeout rate by a wide margin. They strikeout 26 percent of the time against lefties, and the next team down the line only strikes out 23.2 percent of the time. The game is also in Pittsburgh where Happ has a 3.00 ERA this year. And Happ’s recent form has been great as he has 1.00 ERA (3.03 xFIP) with 36 strikeouts compared to just five walks in 36 innings. Even if he just pitches to his recent xFIP, that will be good enough at his price tag.

Perhaps the second best value of the day also comes from the mid-price range. Brett Anderson ($6,500) will face the Rockies who rank dead last in wRC+ by a fairly wide margin against left-handed pitching and are tied for the second highest strikeout rate against lefties. The game is also in LA as opposed to Colorado, so Anderson is getting a positive bump to his projection due to ball park. I’d have no problem rolling with Happ and Anderson, but I don’t think you’ll need to go that cheap with both pitchers.

As for a bargain, Nick Tropeano ($6,000) will take Matt Shoemaker‘s turn in the rotation and has a nice macthup against the Mariners. Seattle has the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Tropeano is only $500 cheaper than Anderson, so you’d really have to like what you’d be getting with the extra $500 you’d save on Tropeano. My guess is it would make more sense to figure a way up to Anderson from Tropeano if you find yourself in that spot.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

The matchups I really like tonight are the Twins against Alfredo Simon, the Cardinals against Ariel Pena and the Nationals against David Buchanan. All three teams are facing right-handed pitchers, and the Twins and Nats don’t really have the ability to load their lineups with left-handed hitters. But the Cardinals have some usable left-handers. Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward, Brandon Moss and Kolten Wong could all be included in a stack. Jon Jay also plays about half the time, and Matt Adams is back on the roster, though he hasn’t started since returning from the DL. And I doubt Randal Grichuk plays, but he’s a right-hander with a reverse split and power, so he’s an option as well if in the lineup.

As for the Twins, the middle of that order is an option for a five-man stack. Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Torii Hunter should hit something like 2-3-4-6-7- in the order. They’ll face Simon who is worse against left-handers, but he’s still plenty bad against right-handers with a 4.54 xFIP against righties. The same goes for the Nats against Buchanan who has been awful against lefties but also has a 4.37 xFIP against righties and has a similar home run rate allowed against left- and right-handed pitching. Bryce Harper left Sunday’s game early, but if he’s back in the lineup tonight, he’ll be hard to leave off your roster. The only other regular left-hander Washington has is Clint Robinson, who should be back from paternity leave Tuesday. He’s a great value even if not stacking Nats. Anthony Rendon, possibly Danny Espinosa, possibly Harper, Jayson Werth and Robinson could hit 1-2-3-4-5 and could be a stack option.

Vegas is with me on Minnesota and to a degree on St. Louis and Washington, though Vegas likes the Jays, White Sox, O’s and D’Backs a bit more than the Cards and Nats. Of those teams, I’d most be on board with the O’s. Machado, Davis, Jones and Parra could make for a nice mini-stack in the middle of that order against Joe Kelly.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. John Jaso – $2,900 – Tampa Bay Rays
2. Buster Posey – $4,200 – San Francisco Giants
3. Wilson Ramos – $3,100 – Washington Nationals

First Base

1. Joe Mauer – $3,600 – Minnesota Twins
2. Justin Smoak – $2,300 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. David Ortiz – $5,100 – Boston Red Sox

Second Base

1. Kolten Wong – $4,000 – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Anthony Rendon – $3,700 – Washington Nationals
3. Danny Espinosa – $3,000 – Washington Nationals

Third Base

1. Miguel Cabrera – $4,600 – Detroit Tigers
2. Alex Rodriguez – $4,200 – New York Yankees
3. Matt Carpenter – $4,700 – St. Louis Cardinals
4. Brett Wallace – $2,000 – San Diego Padres

Shortstop

1. Addison Russell – $3,100 – Chicago Cubs
2. Ryan Goins – $2,400 – Toronto Blue Jays
3. Ian Desmond – $3,500 – Washington Nationals

Outfield

1. Jason Heyward – $4,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
2. Brandon Moss – $4,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Bryce Harper – $5,900 – Washington Nationals
4. Adam Jones – $4,300 – Baltimore Orioles
5. Clint Robinson – $2,500 – Washington Nationals
6. Justin Ruggiano – $2,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Jay Bruce – $3,400 – Cincinnati Reds
8. Josh Reddick – $3,800 – Oakland Athletics

Starting Pitcher

1. J.A. Happ – $7,500 – Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Stephen Strasburg – $9,800 – Washington Nationals
3. Jon Lester – $9,900 – Chicago Cubs
4. Brett Anderson – $6,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Jacob deGrom – $11,900 – New York Mets