Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 16, 2015
Below I’ve included a discussion on the pitching options, as well as a look at the best teams to stack from and an individual set of player rankings for tonight’s slate at DraftKings.
Forecast
Chances of rain in Minnesota and San Francisco tonight. Minnesota appears to be more threatening, but make sure to check the forecast as we get closer to first pitch.
Pitching Perspective
After a night dominated by top pitchers, we again get a solid slate full of options tonight. The top option is NL Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Arrieta has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, and his numbers back up his dominance. Arrieta has an xFIP of 2.74, while striking out over a hitter per inning and getting over 50% of batted balls on the ground. Over each of the last two seasons, Arrieta’s strikeout stuff has really stabilized with around a 10.5% SwStr% and a 20.5 K%. As I’ve noted in the past, any earned runs that happen to find their way against Arrieta (which shouldn’t be many thanks to great run prevention skills and low walk rates) will be mitigated by his ability to sit batters down via the strikeout. The only hard part about using Arrieta tonight is his salary, which will probably be too much to swallow for cash games, making him more of a tournament option.
Don’t fret if you can’t fit Arrieta, you’ll get a cheaper version of him in Chris Archer and David Price tonight. Archer drags the New York Yankees away from the Bronx into his spacious park in Tampa. The Yankees will not only be taking a huge negative park shift, but they’ll be dealing with a revamped Archer who is striking out 11 hitters per nine innings and has dropped his xFIP by a full run this year. Archer carries more upside than anyone else on this slate, and he’s yours for only $11,900 tonight. I like Archer in both cash games and tournaments.
Price on the other hand is an even better cash game play as he’ll be taking on a depleted Atlanta Braves lineup. The Braves are currently sitting around 2.8 runs for an implied total, and they’ll be lucky to get that. Price has been fantastic again this season, and is a huge favorite behind the Jays offense tonight. He’s one of the arms we can count on most to work deep into the game, and rack up enough strikeouts to give you a decent upside with his safer floor. The Braves as a team don’t really strikeout that much (in bottom five in the league in terms of K%), so it hurts Price’s upside just a tad, but I think he’s a solid cash game option.
Dropping way down the price ladder, look towards Alex Wood, Jaime Garcia and Gio Gonzalez. All three of these guys are sizable favorites with minuscule salaries tonight. Wood will be pitching at home against the Colorado Rockies offense that is taking a big hit in terms of park shift. Wood has been up and down this season, but given his salary and matchup, he makes for a solid cash game play given that he won’t have to do much scoring to reach value. Garcia and Gonzalez are a tad bit more expensive tonight, but they’re very different plays. In playing Gonzalez, you’ll be doing so to try and take advantage of a weak Phillies lineup, and the upside that Gonzalez offers in terms of strikeouts (even though his numbers are down this year). Garcia on the other hand has better run prevention skills, but won’t offer you the same upside as Gonzalez. He’s pitching on the road against a weak Milwaukee Brewers lineup though, and he’s cheap as well.
Stack Options
1 and 2. Camden Yards, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles – I’m jumping this game over the Washington Nationals because I trust the firepower at Camden just a bit more. Both the Red Sox and Orioles possess deep, powerful lineups that won’t break the bank. A pair of young arms, Mike Wright and Henry Owens will take the mound tonight, and both have struggled with the long ball so far this year, each allowing over 1.5 HR/9. Take advantage of lefty masher, Adam Jones. And right-handed mauler, David Ortiz.
3.Washington Nationals – Boy the Nats really let us down last night with the exception of Bryce Harper. Harper instantly becomes the number one play for me tonight again, but I’m banking on the rest of the Nats offense to pick it up against young right-hander Alec Asher. Asher got whacked in his last start against the Cubs and was prone to the long ball. That’s good news for us tonight, as Vegas agrees that the Nats are in store for some offense. Their implied runs total is around five runs and they’re going to be the most popular stack tonight. You’ll want some exposure in both tournaments and cash games.
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Matt Wieters -$2,700 – Baltimore Orioles
- Wilson Ramos -$3,200 – Washington Nationals
- Russell Martin -$3,900 – Toronto Blue Jays
First Basemen
- David Ortiz -$5,100 – Boston Red Sox
- Clint Robinson -$2,500 – Washington Nationals
- Jose Abreu -$4,800 – Chicago White Sox
Second Basemen
- Anthony Rendon -$4,000 – Washington Nationals
- Brian Dozier -$4,300 – Minnesota Twins
- Justin Turner -$3,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
Third Basemen
- Miguel Sano -$4,700 – Minnesota Twins
- Manny Machado -$4,700 – Baltimore Orioles
- Matt Carpenter -$4,200 – St. Louis Cardinals
Shortstop
- Xander Bogaerts -$4,500 – Boston Red sox
- Carlos Correa -$5,100 – Houston Astros
- Ian Desmond -$3,400 – Washington Nationals
Outfield
- Bryce Harper -$5,900 – Washington Nationals
- Adam Jones -$4,300 – Baltimore Orioles
- Nolan Reimold -$2,600 – Baltimore Orioles
- Jayson Werth -$4,300 – Washington Nationals
- George Springer -$4,500 – Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers
- Jake Arrieta -$14,000 – Chicago Cubs
- David Price -$12,500 – Toronto Blue Jays
- Chris Archer -$11,900 – Tampa Bay Rays
- Alex Wood -$6,600 – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Jaime Garcia -$9,100 – St. Louis Cardinals
- Gio Gonzalez -$8,000 – Washington Nationals