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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: September 24, 2015

Below I’ve included a discussion on tonight’s slate of games at DraftKings. As always, I’ll discuss the pitching options, the best teams to stack from as well as a set of individual player rankings.

Forecast

All Clear!

Pitching Perspective

This post is focusing on the night slate, so none of the 3:00/4:00 EST times will be discussed. Even so, the late slate does have some decent pitching options all around. I’ll start with the most expensive options of the night, Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale. These left-handers have different matchup difficulties tonight but are very similar in terms of upside and the safe floor that we’ve come to expect from them. Bumgarner will take on the horrid San Diego Padres lineup on the road in Petco Park tonight as a noticeable favorite. Bumgarner is the best pitching option on the slate, and given his ability to collect strikeouts and work deep into the game, he’s almost a lock for me in cash games. Especially given the fact that his price isn’t outrageous.

Sale, on the other hand, is even cheaper but draws a more difficult matchup against the New York Yankees on the road. Sale has burned us a couple times this year, but if you look away from those starts, you’ll reveal a 2.58 xFIP and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Yeah, that’s a lot. He’s too good for me to write off for cash games, but if you’re paying up for only one arm, I’d just reach up for Bumgarner. However, a team featuring both of these guys would be a great way to attack tournaments.

After these top two arms, there are four others that should be on your radar tonight. Michael Pineda, Steven Matz, Johnny Cueto and Michael Wacha. Each of these guys has a salary from $10,000 and under, meaning that pairing two of them will give you lots of salary to work with.

Pineda plays the other side of the matchup against Chris Sale and faces a White Sox lineup with an implied run total around 3.3 runs. Pineda is another example of a pitcher where you must look away from the typical statistics, as his ERA shows 4.10, but he’s posted an xFIP of 2.97. While he pitches in  Yankee Stadium, his ability to keep the ball on the ground has been key to his success, and he’s picked up his strikeout numbers again this year. I think most people will be leaning towards Cueto and Wacha around this salary, so I like Pineda for tournaments.

Both Cueto and Wacha have particularly “safe” matchups and great salaries given their skill sets. Neither is going to blow you away in terms of strikeouts, but they both possess solid run prevention skills and good ground ball numbers. Add to that fact that both Cueto and Wacha are sizable favorites, and you’ve got even more reason to give them a go tonight.

Stack Options

  1. New York Mets – If you went back to the beginning of the season, who would have ever thought that the New York Mets would be worthy of a top stack option on any night? Well, their offense has exploded and they have a great matchup with Josh Smith tonight in Great American Ball Park. This is a hefty park shift in the Mets favor, and they have a lot of valuable left-handers you can use to attack Smith tonight. Smith has only started four games this season, but in those starts he has been horrendous. He’s posted an xFIP of 6.36 and is allowing 1.93 HR/9. This is not good for him. Load up on Mets.
  2. St. Louis Cardinals- Since the night is a short slate, there aren’t many great offensive options. With that being said, I’m going to place the Cardinals here against Taylor Jungmann, despite a solid season from him. Jungmann has been the lone bright spot for the Brewers this season, but I think you can attack him with left-handed hitters, to whom he’s allowed a 29.7% hard hit rate. The Cardinals should throw out Carpenter, Wong, Heyward and even Matt Adams tonight to try and take advantage, and so should you.
  3. Boston Red Sox – It used to be automatic to stack against Erasmo Ramirez, but that is no more. Nevertheless, I’m going back to the well tonight. Erasmo has displayed rather significant reverse splits this season, allowing right-handers to post a .337 wOBA as opposed to .248 for left-handers. The good news for that, is the Red Sox are primarily right-handed, with their lone lefties, Travis Shaw and David Ortiz possessing good to great skills against right-handers.

Player Rankings

Catcher

  1. Travis d’Arnaud -$4,500 – New York Mets
  2. Salvador Perez -$3,400 – Kansas City Royals
  3. Yan Gomes -$3,300 – Cleveland Indians

First Basemen

  1. Lucas Duda -$3,500 – New York Mets
  2. Justin Bour -$3,400 – Miami Marlins
  3. Matt Adams– $3,000 – St. Louis Cardinals

Second Basemen

  1. Daniel Murphy -$3,900 – New York Mets
  2. Ben Zobrist -$3,900- Kansas City Royals
  3. Brian Dozier -$4,300 – Minnesota Twins

Shortstops

  1. Xander Bogaerts -$4,900 – Boston Red Sox
  2. Andres Blanco -$2,400 – Philadelphia Phillies
  3. Ruben Tejada -$2,800 – New York Mets

Third Basemen

  1. Matt Carpenter -$4,700 – St. Louis Cardinals
  2. David Wright -$5,200 – New York Mets
  3. Miguel Sano -$4,800 – Minnesota Twins

Outfield

  1. Yoenis Cespedes -$4,800 – New York Mets
  2. Michael Conforto -$4,000 – New York Mets
  3. Jason Heyward -$4,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
  4. Curtis Granderson -$4,600 – New York Mets

Starting Pitchers

  1. Madison Bumgarner -$12,200 – San Francisco Giants
  2. Chris Sale -$11,300 – Chicago White Sox
  3. Michael Pineda -$8,600 – New York Yankees
  4. Johnny Cueto -$8,900 – Kansas City Royals
  5. Michael Wacha -$9,300 – St. Louis Cardinals
  6. Steven Matz -$10,000 – New York Mets

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