Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Thursday’s five-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position. A quick reminder, you should never invest too heavily in short slates like this. Play no more than half of what you’d normally play. 

Pitching Perspective

There are four starters priced over $9,000 today, but only one is worth his price tag according to my model. That one is Francisco Liriano ($11,300). He’s got a great matchup against the Brewers who rank next to last in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

There’s some cause for concern as Liriano had a 4.94 ERA in August with a 4.51 xFIP. But for the season his ERA is 3.28 with a 3.18 xFIP. Were this a full slate, Liriano’s recent performance might scare me off, but I simply don’t see another pricey pitcher that is remotely worth their price tag. Jordan Zimmermann and Edinson Volquez have below average matchups, and Taylor Jungmann has no business having a five-figure price tag. Were you to pay up for one of those other three expensive starters, Zimmermann is the best option. But I’m trusting Liriano.

For your cheap starter, you’ll have to choose between the starters in the Dodgers at Padres game, Mat Latos ($7,300) and Colin Rea ($6,000). Their stat lines for the season are remarkably similar as each owns an inflated ERA with an xFIP around 3.70. They also have very similar strikeout and walk rates. Latos has the better matchup against the Padres, so he’s the smarter and safer choice. But with Rea being less expensive, he represents about as much value potential as Latos does.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

The Giants are in Colorado, so we’ll start, as we often do, with the Coors game. Chris Rusin will go for the Rox and Ryan Vogelsong will go for the Giants. Of the two, I’d much rather stack against Vogelsong. Rusin is pretty decent at managing contact with a ground ball rate over 50 percent and a hard hit allowed rate of just 27.8 percent. Vogelsong, on the other hand, has a 44.1 percent ground ball rate and 31 percent hard hit allowed rate. San Francisco right-handers are options against Rusin, but he’s been very good against lefties. Voglesong has been below average with and without the platoon advantage this year.

Carlos Gonzalez is almost a must-play with a price tag of $4,300, and Charlie Blackmon at $4,800 is reasonable enough. Nolan Arenado might be a little rich at $5,700, but if you’re going Rockies-heavy with a stack, you probably can’t leave him out. Ben Paulsen is also a solid value, and Brandon Barnes and Kyle Parker are both salary relief options if you need it. Really, any Rockie in the lineup is an option.

If you want a non-Coors stack, the Royals may be your best bet. They went off on Wednesday against Randy Wolf, and they’ll face another bad left-handed starter from Detroit tonight in Matt Boyd. Boyd has a 7.12 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts), and his xFIP is over 5.00 against both left- and right-handed hitters. Escobar, Zobrist, Cain and Morales should hit 1-2-3-5 and should make for a nice mini-stack. Sal Perez and Jonny Gomes could be used for a more Royals-heavy stack if in the lineup.

One other thing is that I really like Washington left-handed hitters against Matt Wisler, but there aren’t really enough of them to stack.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Nick Hundley – $3,800 – Colorado Rockies
2. Buster Posey – $5,000 – San Francisco Giants
3. Salvador Perez – $3,600 – Kansas City Royals

First Base

1. Ben Paulsen – $3,500 – Colorado Rockies
2. Victor Martinez – $3,300 – Detroit Tigers
3. Kendrys Morales – $4,400 – Kansas City Royals

Second Base

1. Ben Zobrist – $4,300 – Kansas City Royals
2. D.J. LeMahieu – $4,300 – Colorado Rockies
3. Matt Duffy – $4,800 – San Francisco Giants

Third Base

1. Danny Espinosa – $3,100 – Washington Nationals
2. Nolan Arenado – $5,700 – Colorado Rockies
3. Pedro Alvarez – $3,400 – Pittsburgh Pirates

Shortstop

1. Jose Reyes – $4,500 – Colorado Rockies
2. Alcides Escobar – $3,600 – Kansas City Royals

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,300 – Colorado Rockies
2. Bryce Harper – $5,600 – Washington Nationals
3. Charlie Blackmon – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies
4. Kyle Parker – $2,300 – Colorado Rockies
5. Brandon Barnes – $2,400 – Colorado Rockies
6. Clint Robinson – $2,400 – Washington Nationals
7. Lorenzo Cain – $5,200 – Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitcher

1. Francisco Liriano – $11,300 – Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Mat Latos – $7,300 – San Diego Padres
3. Colin Rea – $6,000 – San Diego Padres
4. Jordan Zimmermann – $10,400 – Washington Nationals