Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday’s 14-game evening slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position. 

Pitching Perspective

Of the nine most expensive starters tonight (priced between $8,100 and $11,700), only one has a positive value grade according to my model (displayed in the chart below). Which is another way of saying that only one of those pitchers is really worth his price tag. That pitcher is James Shields ($8,700). He’ll face the Dodgers who are basically an average matchup for right-handers. As for his recent performance, he’s been up and down a bit lately with two great starts, one good start, one decent start and two bad starts in August. But unless a guy has just been downright bad in all of his recent starts, I generally won’t scare off with them. And I won’t scare off Shields at home when my model says his price tag should be around 10K.

Were you to want to pay up for another expensive starter, Corey Kluber ($11,700) and Garrett Richards ($8,300) would be the guys I’d recommend. Kluber has a shaky matchup against Detroit, but he still has the highest projection of the day and isn’t grossly overpriced. Richards has an even shakier matchup against Texas, but he’s only a few hundred dollars overpriced.

Past those expensive starters, we start to see some more value. In the mid-price range ($6,000-$7,500), Julio Teheran ($6,900) and J.A. Happ ($6,600) are worth consideration. My model consistently likes Teheran more than the DK pricing model, so I have a weird relationship with him. He’s come through on occasion, but he’s also blown up several times. In fact, his last time out he allowed eight runs to the Yankees and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. But in the five starts prior to that, Teheran put up a 2.73 ERA with a respectable 3.55 xFIP. For that reason, I’m not letting that last start scare me off. He has a somewhat above average matchup against the Nats, and he’s cheaper than he normally is, so I like the value potential.

As for Happ, he has a good matchup against the Cardinals. The Cards have the ninth lowest wRC+ and eighth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. And Happ is on a nice little roll. Over his last four starts, he has a sparkling 0.78 ERA. His xFIP over that time frame is 3.67, and he certainly can’t keep up a sub-1.00 ERA pace forever. But his recent xFIP is still solid, and his strikeout and walk skills have been good lately. Choosing between Happ and Teheran will be a tough call if you need a pitcher in this price range.

If you’re looking for a bargain, Kris Medlen ($4,700) has been decent in his first two times through the rotation. His ERA in two starts is 4.76, but his xFIP is 3.79 thanks to 11 strikeouts and only two walks in 11 1/3 innings as a starter this year. He has a somewhat above average matchup against the White Sox who have the seventh lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a strikeout rate that is mid-pack.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

Let’s start by discussing the game in Coors and the Blue Jays since Coors and Toronto always lead to high implied run totals in Vegas. As for the Jays, I have little interest in rostering them today. They’ll face Ubaldo Jimenez who has been above average against right-handed hitters. Toronto is basically all righties in the lineup, so this isn’t the best matchup for them.

As for the Coors game, players with the platoon advantage are options, but I don’t see the opportunity for a five- or six-man team-heavy stack. Buster Posey and Matt Duffy are options against Jorge de la Rosa, and CarGo, Blackmon, Reyes and Paulsen could make for a nice mini-stack at the top of that lineup. The problem is that Chris Heston will start for the Giants, and he keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate. Don’t feel the need to have significant exposure to these typical plays tonight.

Moving on to teams I do like, Boston jumps out as a stack candidate today. They’ll face Adam Morgan who has the worst xFIP of any starter in the league against right-handed hitters (min. 50 IP). He’s also been well below average against left-handers, so this is a great spot to go heavy with a stack. Mookie, Xander and Rusney need to be a part of any Boston stack, and you can fill in whoever hits around them. I kind of have a feeling Allen Craig might play first base tomorrow and hit in the top six, and he’s a great value at the minimum price even if you don’t stack Sox. By the way, Vegas is with me on the Sox as they had the third highest opening implied run total behind only San Francisco and Toronto.

Other than Sox, it’s hard to find heavy stack options. I like Cleveland right-handers against Kyle Lobstein, but Cleveland’s best hitters are left-handed. And I like Houston left-handers against Mike Pelfrey, but Houston’s best hitters are right-handed. So keep Colorado lefties, San Francisco righties, Cleveland righties and Houston lefties in mind along with the Sox when picking hitters.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Jason Castro – $3,200 – Houston Astros
2. Yan Gomes – $3,500 – Cleveland Indians
3. Buster Posey – $4,600 – San Francisco Giants

First Base

1. Freddie Freeman – $4,300 – Atlanta Braves
2. Carlos Santana – $4,400 – Cleveland Indians
3. Joey Votto – $5,200 – Cincinnati Reds
4. Allen Craig – $2,000 – Boston Red Sox

Second Base

1. Luis Valbuena – $3,800 – Houston Astros
2. Ben Zobrist – $4,200 – Kansas City Royals
3. Matt Duffy – $4,400 – San Francisco Giants

Third Base

1. Pablo Sandoval – $3,300 – Boston Red Sox
2. Marwin Gonzalez – $3,000 – Houston Astros
3. Jed Lowrie – $3,800 – Houston Astros

Shortstop

1. Xander Bogaerts – $3,800 – Boston Red Sox
2. Marcus Semien – $3,200 – Oakland Atheltics
3. Jose Reyes – $4,700 – Colorado Rockies

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,700 – Colorado Rockies
2. Mookie Betts – $4,800 – Boston Red Sox
3. Colby Rasmus – $3,400 – Houston Astros
4. Rusney Castillo – $3,500 – Boston Red Sox
5. Jay Bruce – $3,900 – Cincinnati Reds
6. Preston Tucker – $3,300 – Houston Astros
7. Jerry Sands – $2,400 – Cleveland Indians

Starting Pitcher

1. James Shields – $8,700 – San Diego Padres
2. J.A. Happ – $6,600 – Pittsburgh Pirates
3. Julio Teheran – $6,900 – Atlanta Braves
4. Corey Kluber – $11,700 – Cleveland Indians
5. Kris Medlen – $4,700 – Kansas City Royals