Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for tonight’s 10-game evening slate of DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

Things could get a little weird tonight with some of the teams playing in the late slate potentially not having anything to gain depending on how things go in the afternoon games. I wrote up a full breakdown of the playoff scenarios, and I discussed what fantasy implications the early slate could have on the evening slate. I would suggest you go read that post before going any further here.

In the interest of trying to keep things as simple as possible on a confusing slate, I believe there are four teams that grade out far better than the rest of the field: Pittsburgh, Anaheim, Vancouver and Dallas. Pittsburgh has to win to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs, so I’d roster some Pens against Buffalo no matter what. But the other three teams have caveats.

Dallas is hosting Nashville who has nothing to gain and can lose nothing. They’re locked into second in the Central division and have home ice in the first round. My guess is that they go with Carter Hutton in net. But even if they go with Pekka Rinne, Dallas is a potent offense that is playing solely to get Jamie Benn ($8,600, W) the individual scoring title. If Hutton starts for Nashville, I’ll have a hard time leaving Benn out of lineups. To ease the blow of Benn’s cost, I’d pair him with Patrick Eaves ($4,500, W) who joins Benn on the first line and top power play unit. I’d also kick in John Klingberg ($4,300, D) who joins them on the top power play.

The caveat with the Anaheim and Vancouver is a bit different. Anaheim will clinch the top seed with a victory or a St. Louis loss to Minnesota. Vancouver will clinch home ice in their first round matchup with Calgary with a win or a Calgary loss to Winnipeg. Anaheim and Vancouver play late games, but St. Louis and Calgary play in the afternoon, so Anaheim and/or Vancouver could have clinched before their games begin and have nothing to play for. If that happens, I’d be very worried about them limiting the minutes of their top players. The matchups for Anaheim and Vancouver are so good that I’m tempted to ignore whether they have anything to play for, but if they don’t, I’ll probably fade them.

In summary, I’m going to have Pens and Stars as the base of my lineups most likely. I’ll fill in the gaps with whoever out of Anaheim and Vancouver hasn’t clinched by game time. If both teams clinch beforehand and have nothing to play for, I’ll be using mini-stacks from the Blackhawks, Islanders or Oilers. I’ve included those mini-stacks in the rankings below. However, the Hawks and Isles are in the same boat as the (Mighty) Ducks and ‘Nucks. Chicago has nothing to gain and nothing to lose if Minnesota loses to St. Louis in the afternoon. New York has nothing to gain and nothing to lose if the Capitals beat the Rangers in the afternoon. So keep that in mind as well. I’ll be updating you throughout the afternoon on Twitter @TheRealTAL.

Now, I told you which Stars I like, but I haven’t told you which Pens, (Mighty) Ducks and Canucks I like.

From the Penguins, I obviously love Sidney Crosby ($9,200, C), but I don’t like his wingers. Patric Hornqvist ($7,600, W) and Crosby together is just too expensive, and I don’t love Daniel Winnik ($3,500, W). If I roster Crosby, I’ll likely just pair him with Paul Martin ($3,000, D) who eats up a ton of power play time. The second line is probably the one I prefer. Evgeni Malkin ($7,900, C) is reasonably priced (there is some concern he’s playing a bit hurt), and his wingers, Chris Kunitz ($4,500, W) and David Perron ($3,800, W) provide very good value.

As for Anaheim, I actually hope they clinch so I can avoid them. The only pairing I really trust is Ryan Getzlaf ($7,800, C) and Corey Perry ($8,000, W), but they’re obviously very expensive. That pair is going to make lineup building tough. Getzlaf sat out to rest on Thursday, but I have no doubt he’ll be back in if they need this one to secure the top seed in the conference. If I did use Getzlaf/Perry, I’d fit in Sami Vatanen ($4,400, D) if I could. I will say that I’m very interested in whoever starts in net for Anaheim whether they need to win the game or not. For starters, Arizona is the best matchup for opposing goaltenders. But also, whichever goalie gets the start, they will have something to play for: playoff playing time. It’s up in the air about who will start the playoffs in net, so whoever plays tonight will want to make a strong case for that assignment.

And finally the Canucks. I prefer the pairing of Nick Bonino ($4,600, C) and Radim Vrbata ($7,100, W) from a production standpoint, but the value on them isn’t great and several expensive options were listed above. For that reason, the pair of Henrik Sedin ($4,200, C) and Daniel Sedin ($4,900, D) might make more sense. Similarly, I prefer Alexander Edler ($4,600, D) on the blue line, but Yannick Weber ($3,000, D) also plays on the top power play unit and is much cheaper.

Player Rankings

Mini-Stacks

1. Evgeni Malkin/Chris Kunitz – Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Jamie Benn/Patrick Eaves – Dallas Stars
3. Ryan Getzlaf/Corey Perry – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
4. Henrik Sedin/Daniel Sedin – Vancouver Canucks
5. Nick Bonino/Radim Vrbata – Vancouver Canucks
6. John Tavares/Ryan Strome – New York Islanders
7. Jonathan Toews/Marian Hossa – Chicago Blackhawks
8. Taylor Hall/Jordan Eberle – Edmonton Oilers

Defense

1. John Klingberg – $4,300 – Dallas Stars
2. Yannick Weber – $3,000 – Vancouver Canucks
3. Paul Martin – $3,000 – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Alexander Edler – $4,600 – Vancouver Canucks
5. Sami Vatanen – $4,400 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
6. Duncan Keith – $5,100 – Chicago Blackhawks
7. Justin Schultz – $3,900 – Edmonton Oilers

Goalies

1. John Gibson* – $7,900 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
2. Frederik Andersen – $8,300 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
3. Carey Price – $8,900 – Montreal Canadiens
4. Semyon Varlamov – $8,400 – Colorado Avalanche
5. Petr Mrazek* – $7,000 – Detroit Red Wings
6. Jimmy Howard – $7,300 – Detroit Red Wings
7. Sergei Bobrovsky – $9,200 – Columbus Blue Jackets
8. Curtis McElhinney* – $7,200 – Columbus Blue Jackets

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.