Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

The obvious play of the day is Los Angeles hosting Edmonton. The Kings are a -330 favorite, and the second largest favorite of the day is only -170. To put that into percentages for you, -330 equates to roughly a 77 percent chance of winning while -170 is about a 63 percent chance of winning.

With a team save percentage of 89.1 percent, the Oil have had the worst goaltending in the league this year, and they’re a pretty bad possession team; in the last 45 days they have allowed the seventh most even strength Corsi events against per 60. That’s why the Kings are huge favorites and have the best matchup of the day.

Both of LA’s top lines are options. Anze Kopitar ($5,900, C) and Marian Gaborik ($5,200, W) as well as Jeff Carter ($5,500, C) and Tyler Toffoli ($5,000, W) are the mini-stack options. There’s not much difference in expected production from those two pairs, so the cheaper pair of Carter/Toffoli represents the best value today. But there’s no issue at all with either pair. If you wanted to use Kopitar/Gaborik, their other winger, Justin Williams ($4,200, W), can also be stacked with them.

On the blue line I prefer Drew Doughty ($4,900, D) even though Jake Muzzin ($5,100, D) and Alec Martinez ($4,400, D) have been seeing top power play minutes recently. If you’re interested in stacking, Doughty plays on the PP with Kopitar, Gaborik and Carter. Muzzin and Martinez play on the PP with Toffoli. Keep in mind that all Kings are going to have very high ownership percentages, so they’re not a must play in large tournaments, but it’s probably going to be hard to fade them in cash games.

The other top matchup of the day belongs to St. Louis hosting Calgary. Only Buffalo allows more even strength Corsi events against per 60 than Calgary, so the Flames allow a lot of pucks to be put toward their net. They are a good shot blocking team so they allow only an average number of shots on net, but they’re still a terrible possession team with average goaltending.

The problem with the Blues today is that Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Steen are expected to be out. Without two top six wingers, the St. Louis lines are a bit jumbled after being fairly consistent throughout the year. At practice yesterday it was David Backes ($5,300, C) centering Dmitrij Jaskin ($2,700, W) and Patrik Berglund ($3,300, C) while Paul Stastny ($4,400, C) centered T.J. Oshie ($4,800, W) and Jaden Schwartz ($5,300, W). That Stastny line is much more appealing. Backes/Jaskin could be a GPP play, but the second line is the better bet. Feel free to use any two of those three together or the entire line. Stastny/Oshie will probably continue to join Backes on the top power play unit, which is appealing, but I think Oshie/Schwartz might have the most upside. On the blue line I like Alex Peitrangelo ($5,300, D) who plays on the top power play unit.

Past those top two matchups I like the participants in the Islanders at Blue Jackets game as well as a couple of home teams, Chicago hosting Vancouver and Ottawa hosting Tampa Bay.

In the Isles-Jackets game I’d lean toward the Isles even though they’re the road team in that one. Columbus isn’t a dominant possession team; specifically, their top six doesn’t have great possession numbers. New York’s top line is always an excellent possession line no matter who is playing alongside John Tavares ($9,000, C). The Isles mixed it up in their last game and had Ryan Strome ($4,600, C) and Nikolay Kulemin ($3,100, W) with Tavares. Kulemin makes for a nice GPP gamble playing next to Tavares, but Strome is a much safer mini-stack partner.

Josh Bailey ($3,600, W) and Kyle Okposo ($6,200, W) were centered by Frans Nielsen ($4,600, C). Those wingers look like a nice mini-stack, but my projections from them are probably influenced by playing alongside Tavares frequently. On the blue line I like Nick Leddy ($3,800, D) who sees a big chunk of power play time and has a great price tag.

On the other side of that game, I believe the top line centered by Ryan Johansen ($7,800, C) will match up with the Tavares line, which is a possession mismatch. Plus Johansen and Cam Atkinson ($6,100, W) are pretty pricey. If I was going to use Jackets (and I probably won’t), I’d lean toward the second line pair of Brandon Dubinsky ($4,200, C) and Nick Foligno ($5,200, W).

Quickly, from Chicago the only real option right now is the top line centered by Jonathan Toews ($6,300, C). I’d pair him with Marian Hossa ($6,800, W), though they don’t have great price tags. But you have to spend money somewhere. And from Ottawa I’d lean toward the pair of Kyle Turris ($5,200, C) and Mark Stone ($4,700, W).

Player Rankings

Mini-Stacks

1. John Tavares/Ryan Strome – New York Islanders
2. Jeff Carter/Tyler Toffoli – Los Angeles Kings
3. Anze Kopitar/Marian Gaborik – Los Angeles Kings
4. Jaden Schwartz/T.J. Oshie – St. Louis Blues
5. Jonathan Toews/Marian Hossa – Chicago Blackhawks
6. David Backes/Dmitrij Jaskin – St. Louis Blues
7. Kyle Turris/Mark Stone – Ottawa Senators (GPP only)
8. Brandon Dubinsky/Nick Foligno – Columbus Blue Jackets (GPP only)

Defense

1. Nick Leddy – $3,800 – New York Islanders
2. Drew Doughty – $4,900 – Los Angeles Kings
3. Alex Pietrangelo – $5,300 – St. Louis Blues
4. Patrick Wiercioch – $2,700 – Ottawa Senators
5. Duncan Keith – $5,000 – Chicago Blackhawks
6. David Savard – $3,500 – Columbus Blue Jackets

Goalies

1. Roberto Luongo – $7,300 – Florida Panthers
2. Eddie Lack – $7,700 – Vancouver Canucks
3. Devan Dubnyk – $9,000 – Minnesota Wild
4. Sergei Bobrovsky – $9,200 – Columbus Blue Jackets

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.