Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

Potentially horrific goaltending is the theme of the day. Frederik Andersen is day-to-day with an upper body injury, so Ilya Bryzgalov is probable to start for Anaheim against Florida. Viktor Fasth and his .889 save percentage are likely to get the start for Edmonton on the second half of a back-to back against the Islanders.Steve Mason is hurt again, so Ray Emery and his .886 save percentage should be in net for Philly against Montreal. And whoever starts for Arizona against St. Louis will be a goalie with a sub-.900 save percentage going against one of the league’s best offenses on the second half of a back-to-back.

BUT…

The team I like the most tonight is Ottawa against the Sabres. We all know the Sabres are a great matchup for opposing skaters, but me liking Ottawa is as much about their salaries as it is about their matchup. Even without considering the matchup, I think every Ottawa top-six forward is slightly to moderately underpriced. Throw in the benefit of the matchup, and the Sens are way underpriced. My favorite pair of forwards is Mika Zibanejad ($4,100, C) and Bobby Ryan ($5,600, W) along with D-man Erik Karlsson ($6,300, D). That’s the trio to use for cash games. But if you want to use a different pair in GPPs, or even use two Ottawa forward pairs in one lineup, go with Kyle Turris ($4,800, C) and Mark Stone ($3,900, W).

OK, going back to the teams facing bad goaltending…

St. Louis is the most interesting team of the day but also the most difficult to peg. For one, as of this writing it was unknown if the Yotes are sticking with Mike Smith for the second day in a row or if they’ll turn to Louis Domingue in goal. The other thing is that it’s possible Jori Lehtera ($3,000, C) returns for the Blues. If he does, it’s hard to say what the Blues lines will look like. But Arizona’s goaltending decision and Lehtera’s return are related. If Arizona sticks with Smith, I’m probably going to limit my Blues exposure to the first line pair of David Backes ($5,400, C) and Alexander Steen ($6,200, W). But if Domingue is in net, I’ll want more exposure to St. Louis. I’ll do that by pairing Jaden Schwartz ($5,800, W), whose value I prefer to Vladimir Tarasenko‘s, with whichever center he’s paired with, whether that be Lehtera or Paul Stastny ($5,100, C).

The other teams mentioned above that are facing bad goaltending are the Panthers, Islanders and Canadiens. All three teams are playing at home, which I like, but I’m having a hard time finding two forward pairs I like from each of those teams. As a result, I’ll probably only go team-heavy with stacks of Ottawa and potentially St. Louis.

From Florida I like the second line pair of Nick Bjugstad ($4,900, C) and Jimmy Hayes ($3,700, W) who play on the power play with Aaron Ekblad ($4,100, D) who I really like today. From the Islanders I like another second line pair, Frans Nielsen ($4,800, C) and Ryan Strome ($3,600, C). The problem with that pair is that they don’t play on the power play together, and I don’t love any Islander D-men. Plus both guys are classified as centers on DK, and that can make building a lineup a little more difficult. And then from the Habs I’m leaning toward another second line pair, Tomas Plekanec ($5,600, C) and Brendan Gallagher ($4,800, W). But they don’t play on the power play together, so I might go with David Desharnais ($4,500, C) and Max Pacioretty ($8,100, W). If I go that route, I’ll definitely use P.K. Subban ($5,900, D) with them.

But outside of Ottawa and St. Louis, my favorite mini-stack of the day comes from the Rangers who will face Toronto and another bad goaltender, James Reimer. I really like the value of Derek Stepan ($4,700, C) and Martin St. Louis ($4,400, W) along with Dan Boyle ($4,300, D).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. David Backes/Alexander Steen – St. Louis Blues
2. Mika Zibanejad/Bobby Ryan – Ottawa Senators
3. Derek Stepan/Martin St. Louis – New York Rangers
4. Kyle Turris/Mark Stone – Ottawa Senators
5. Nick Bjugstad/Jimmy Hayes – Florida Panthers
6. Patrice Bergeron/Reilly Smith – Boston Bruins
7. David Desharnais/Max Pacioretty – Montreal Canadiens

Defense

1. Aaron Ekblad – $4,100 – Florida Panthers
2. Erik Karlsson – $6,300 – Ottawa Senators
3. Alex Pietrangelo – $5,100 – St. Louis Blues
4. Lubomir Visnovsky – $3,100 – New York Islanders
5. P.K. Subban – $5,900 – Montreal Canadiens

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Michael Hutchinson – $6,900 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Cam Talbot – $7,100 – New York Rangers
3. Jake Allen – $8,200 – St. Louis Blues
4. James Reimer – $6,600 – Toronto Maple Leafs

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.