This post covers the NHL contests on DraftKings starting at 7:00 P.M. EST.

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

I’ve got a little mathematical formula that helps me decide which teams to target each day. It takes into account a team’s Corsi events for per 60, the opposition’s Corsi events against per 60, shooting percentage, save percentage, and win probabilities from Vegas lines. Today that formula is telling me that two teams are easily the best plays of the day, the New York Rangers and the Dallas Stars. But my formula doesn’t know that the Stars lost half of their top six forwards last night and will be without Tyler Seguin, Patrick Eaves and Ales Hemsky tonight in Colorado.

The team the Stars put on the ice won’t be the same team that has more Corsi events for per 60 over the last 20-ish games than any other team in action tonight. Plus, the Stars are playing for the second night in a row, playing in the Mile High air, and we have no idea what their lines will look like with so many forwards out. That’s why they’re out for the day.

That leaves the Rangers in Arizona as the best team to target today per the formula. Aside from the Stars and Islanders (more on them in a minute), no team in action today puts more pucks toward the opposition’s net than the Rangers. And aside from the Avalanche, no team in action today allows more pucks to be directed toward their net than Arizona. If you’re somehow not following, that means we have a good possession team facing a bad one. As a cherry on top, Arizona played last night.

The way Arizona uses their D pairs is odd to me. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Keith Yandle are their best defensemen both offensively and defensively. The Yotes don’t play them together at 5-on-5, which isn’t my issue. My issue is that Yandle is better defensively and is paired with Michael Stone, who is better defensively than Ekman-Larsson’s partner, Zbynek Michaelk. Obviously the Stone/Yandle pairing is the better defensive pair, but it’s Ekman-Larsson and Michalek who have been drawing assignments against the opposition’s first line. They drew the Thornton line last night, which is technically San Jose’s first line. And in the two prior games they drew the Toews and Backes lines. It will be an unexpected change if they don’t matchup with New York’s top line.

As a result, the Rangers second line of Kreider/Stepan/St. Louis is probably the line to avoid as they’re likely to see Yandle/Stone. And look, that line could absolutely score in this game. The odds are just better that a different line will do the damage, which sucks because the prices on the second line today represent some value.

If you’ve read basically any NHL DFS post I’ve written this year, you know I don’t like depth lines on the road. Plus, my research chart shows no good value with the Rangers depth lines. That leaves us with the first line as our best option. Although I wouldn’t be opposed to a Rangers-heavy stack in a GPP with a pair of forwards from each of the top two lines since the second line is so affordable. But on the top line I’m not wild about the price of Mats Zuccarello ($5,500, W), so I’ll likely lean toward the pair of Derick Brassard ($4,900, C) and Rick Nash ($8,700, W). I’ll list some value plays below to help offset the cost here. Ryan McDonagh ($5,100, D) joins Brassard/Nash on the top power play unit and can be paired with them if you can afford it.

OK, now about the Islanders. As mentioned, they have the best Corsi for per 60 over the last 20-ish games of any team in action today. And like the Rangers, the Isles also have a good matchup against a team that played last night, Columbus. The Blue Jackets don’t allow as many pucks toward their net as Arizona does, but I’d argue they have inferior goaltending with Bobrovsky out, even if Mike Smith has struggled for Arizona this year. The Isles also have a benefit the Rangers don’t, and that’s playing at home. All that is why they have the second best set of circumstances today.

I covered this yesterday as well, but the Jackets don’t have any imposing defensemen that must be avoided. Their “third” pair of Kevin Connauton and James Wisniewski are probably their best defensive pair, and they actually matchup with top lines quite often. But just because they’re the best of a bad bunch doesn’t mean we need to avoid them. They’re slightly above average is all.

The problem with trying to pair Islanders is that five of the six forwards I like on that team are classified as centers on DK. The positional eligibility on DK is really starting to piss me off. Anders Lee ($4,800, C) has been on the left wing of John Tavares ($7,100, C) for quite some time. Ryan Strome ($3,600, C) has been on the right wing of Frans Nielsen ($4,700, C) for just as long. Everyone being classified as a center makes it very difficult to take a pair of Islanders and build the rest of your roster with other center/winger stacks. But I digress.

You basically have to use Tavares today at that price in this matchup. If you can make the two centers thing work, pair him with Lee as those two play on the top power play unit together. The other option is to pair Tavares with Josh Bailey ($3,800, W) who is the only usable forward on this team that is classified as a winger. I like Bailey’s value today, but he doesn’t play on the power play with Tavares if that bothers you. Because you have to use Tavares, I see no way you also use the second line pair of centers, Strome and Nielsen, which is unfortunate because I love Strome’s price. If you do end up using Strome or Bailey in some way, I’d look to use Johnny Boychuk ($4,800, D) as they all play on the second power play unit together.

There are five other teams that my formula says have an above average, but not elite, matchup today. They are Calgary, Montreal, Vancouver, Colorado and Washington. I’ve looked at each of those teams as in depth as I’ve looked at the teams I’ve discussed above and will include any players I really like from the non-discussed teams in the rankings below. I just want to be clear that me not discussing them doesn’t necessarily mean I like players in the discussion section of this post more. If a player is not discussed but ranked higher than a discussed player, go by the ranking, not the discussion.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Sean Monahan/Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary Flames
2. Matt Duchene/Alex Tanguay – Colorado Avalanche
3. John Tavares/Josh Bailey – New York Islanders
4. Derick Brassard/Rick Nash – New York Rangers
5. Anze Kopitar/Marian Gaborik – Los Angeles Kings
6. Nicklas Backstrom/Alex Ovechkin – Washington Nationals
7. Nathan MacKinnon/Ryan O’Reilly – Colorado Avalanche

Defense

1. Alexander Edler – $4,200 – Vancouver Canucks
2. Zach Redmond – $2,800 – Colorado Avalanche
3. Dennis Wideman – $5,000 – Calgary Flames
4. Mark Giordano – $6,000 – Calgary Flames
5. Jake Muzzin – $4,700 – Los Angeles Kings
6. Johnny Boychuk – $4,800 – New York Islanders

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Cam Talbot – $6,700 – New York Rangers
2. Semyon Varlamov – $7,800 – Colorado Avalanche
3. Carey Price – $9,400 – Montreal Canadiens
4. Darcy Kuemper – $6,800 – Minnesota Wild

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.