This post covers the NHL contests on DraftKings starting at 5:00 P.M. EST.

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Game Breakdowns

Philadelphia Flyers @ Buffalo Sabres

We all know the Sabres are a great matchup for opposing skaters, but the Flyers are a pretty good matchup for opposing skaters as well, especially with Steve Mason injured. In fact, Philly is pretty easily the second best matchup for opposing skaters today after Buffalo. There are decent arguments you could make for avoiding players from each team. As for the Sabres, they’re just not good offensively. That last sentence really could have stopped after ‘not good.’ And as for the Flyers, they’re likely to be a very popular play against Buffalo, especially on a short slate. Assuming we can find some other matchups to exploit, fading Philly to be contrarion is not something I’m wholly opposed to in GPPs.

If you do want to use Buffalo skaters, your only option is the top line. Aside from Matt Moulson, they just don’t having anything usable down the depth chart, and there is no one to pair Moulson with on his line. Philly doesn’t exactly have a shut down D pair that can eliminate Buffalo’s one scoring line threat. Mark Streit is fairly solid, but Nicklas Grossmann doesn’t scare me at all. Tyler Ennis ($4,200, C) plays on Grossmann’s side of the ice and has an excellent value grade today, so you can pair him with Zemgus Girgensons ($4,200, C).

When picking Flyers, there’s not much need to break down the strength of Buffalo’s D pairs because they’re all horrendously bad. Well, new addition Zach Bogosian is at least average defensively, but everyone else sucks. That being the case, I’m looking for Flyers with good value grades as opposed to the best individual matchups. The two best value grades for Philly forwards belong to both first line wingers, Jakub Voracek ($5,900, W) and Brayden Schenn ($3,700, C). And their stud center, Claude Giroux ($6,900, C) is entirely reasonably priced. Mark Streit ($4,000, D) is also a great play along with those forwrads. But god, at those prices, they’re going to be owned all over the place. If you make multiple GPP lineups, I wouldn’t over-invest.

I’m not sure if there is anywhere else you can go on that team to be contrarion. Wayne Simmonds ($6,400) has been hotter than two mice f***ing in a wool sock lately, so his salary is inflated and his value isn’t great. R.J. Umberger ($2,800, C) has a pretty decent value grade, and I think he’ll line up with Michael Raffl ($3,000, W) , who returns to the lineup today. Umberger/Raffl should allow you to spend big elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ San Jose Sharks

Given that the Lightning lead the league in goals per 60, they’re obviously the best offense in action today. San Jose is a slightly above average matchup for opposing skaters, so the Lightning are the second best team to target after the Flyers. And given the presumed heavy ownership numbers for Flyers, you could argue Tampa is the best play of the day. As for San Jose, they’re one of the four above average, but not elite, offenses in action today that have a below average, but not awful, matchup.

I don’t exactly get why Scott Hannan plays on the top San Jose D pair with Brent Burns, but he does, and that provides us an opportunity to pick on him. The Steven Stamkos ($8,300, C) line is obviously Tampa’s first line, and Ryan Callahan ($5,300, W) is the winger who plays on Hannan’s side of the ice. If you use that pair, you can use Victor Hedman ($5,400, D) who joins them on the power play.

San Jose’s second D pair, Mirco Mueller and Brenden Dillon, are both safely above average defenders. They’re not elite, but they are good enough to consider avoiding if the line they’ll match up against doesn’t represent great value. They’ll likely see some of Tampa’s second and third lines, and Tampa’s second line isn’t a great value. Ondrej Palat ($4,900, W) has a reasonable enough price, but Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov aren’t priced to sell.

Cedric Paquette ($2,700, C) has missed the last two games, but he may draw back in today. If he does, he’s a really nice value. I’m not sure who he’ll line up with, and his reintroduction to the lineup could mess up some lines. Make sure to check that this afternoon. If he ends up on a line with Valtteri Filppula ($4,400, C) or Alex Killorn ($3,700, W), that could make for a nice mini-stack. If Filppula and Killorn are together, they can also be paired. Basically, some combo of Filppula/Killorn/Paquette should be a decent option and could make for a nice TB-heavy GPP lineup with the Stamkos line.

As for Sharks, I potentially like the center and left winger of whatever line draws the top D pair of Hedman and Andrej Sustr. I’m not exactly sure why Sustr is playing up with Hedman as he’s not great defensively. The problem is that war-on-ice.com went down while I was writing this, so I don’t know if that pair has been matching up directly with top lines recently. If they have, I’m not overly interested in the first line pair of Joe Thornton and Melker Karlsson. I’m not interested in Joe Pavelski either because he’s on Hedman’s side of the ice. Plus his price is way up there after his hattie the other night (by the way, thanks, Joe). But if Hedman/Sustr see the second line, I like the matchup for Logan Couture ($8,500, C) and Patrick Marleau ($5,700, W). Couture isn’t a great value, but Marleau is a decent value and offsets Couture’s price tag somewhat. I’ll update this post with Hedman/Sustr usage when I get up tomorrow (or I guess today if you’re reading this). Assuming war-on-ice is back up that is.

Tampa’s second D pair is pretty solid, so I might shy away from Couture/Marleau if that’s going to be their matchup. Their third D pair has young Luke Witkowski on it, so he may be someone to pick on. That brings the third line pair of Tomas Hertl ($4,100, W) and Tommy Wingels ($3,700, W) into play. I like that pairing as Hertl has been playing center but is classified as a winger. That could help if you use a pair elsewhere where both guys are classified as forwards. If you do go Hertl/Wingels, Matt Irwin ($3,200, D) can be paired with them if you need a super cheap stack.

As mentioned, war-on-ice went down while I was writing this post late last night/early this morning. In the interest of getting this post out early, I did not wait to write out game breakdowns for the other two games today. I’ve included any players I like from the Caps-Ducks and Blues-Panthers games in the rankings below. We’re at like 1,500 words here anyway, so you’re probably glad I’m not doing full breakdowns of the other two games. I’ll take a look at a few things on war-on-ice when I get up tomorrow and update the rankings if need be. I’ll let you know on Twitter (@TheRealTAL) if I make any changes.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Claude Giroux/Jakub Voracek – Philadelphia Flyers
2. Ryan Getzlaf/Partick Maroon – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
3. Steven Stamkos/Ryan Callahan – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. Ryan Getzlaf/Corey Perry – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
5. Tyler Ennis/Zemgus Girgensons – Buffalo Sabres
6. Jori Lehtera/Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues

**Remember, as of this writing, it wasn’t clear what Tampa’s lines look like.

Defense

1. Francois Beauchemin – $3,300 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
2. Mark Streit – $4,000 – Philadelphia Flyers
3. Alex Pietrangelo – $5,100 -St. Louis Blues
4. Victor Hedman – $5,400 – Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Matt Niskanen – $3,300 – Washington Capitals

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy* – $7,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Ben Bishop – $7,500 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Brian Elliott – $8,100 – St. Louis Blues
4. Michal Neuvirth – $6,600 – Buffalo Sabres

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.