Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

If the Islanders weren’t playing for the second night in a row, I might like that offense the most today against Carolina. But because the Isles are on the second half of a back-to-back, and on the road no less, I think St. Louis is the top play of the day. The Blues will be at home and will host Dallas, a depleted team that’s a good matchup for opposing skaters to begin with.

As for which Blues to use, the answer is unquestionably whichever line matches up with the Trevor Daley/Jyrki Jokipakka D pairing. Daley/Jokipakka have been matching up primarily against the opposition’s second line, but Dallas went away from that a bit when they struggled on Saturday night. It’s possible Dallas mixes up how they deploy their D corps, but for now the most likely scenario is Daley/Jokipakka matching up with the Blues second line.

As for who will make up St. Louis’ second line, Jaden Schwartz ($5,000, W) and Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,800, W) will be the wingers. But who centers them is a bit in doubt.

Steen & Lehtera had maintenance days. Stastny skated with Schwartz & Tarasenko. Hitch says he may keep him there, flipping Stastny & Lehtera

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) February 16, 2015

Just check tomorrow and see whether it’s going to be Jori Lehtera ($3,100, C) or Paul Stastny ($4,900, C) centering the second line. I’ve got no problem using the whole line in a GPP. In cash games I’d lean towards the center and Schwartz.

Despite the Islanders playing last night, they’re hard to ignore given the lack of many really obvious plays today. Today’s prices came out prior to last night’s games, so the prices haven’t baked in the four combined points that Frans Nielsen ($5,200, C) and Ryan Strome ($4,000, C) put up last night. And that’s a good thing because that line, and particularly Strome on the right wing, has a good matchup today.

Of their healthy D-men, Carolina has two good ones, an average one, two bad ones and a horrendous one. The horrendous and one of the bads play on the third pair, which is hard to exploit because the Isles don’t really have a scary depth line. Maybe the third line pair of Brock Nelson ($3,800, C) and Nikolay Kulemin ($2,600, W) could hit if you need a really cheap mini-stack. But I’m thinking Nielsen and Strome could do it again tonight because the other “bad” Carolina D-man plays on the second pair on Strome’s side of the ice.

Among the teams that look like they have an above average matchup, but not an elite one like the Blues and Isles, there are two teams that will be facing each other. I always like when both teams in a game have good offensive potential so that the pace of the game will be up and it potentially will turn into a shootout. That’s the case today with the Blue Jackets in Philadelphia facing the Flyers. To be fair, the offensive potential in this game is more due to goaltending than anything else like expected pace. But with Ray Emery and Curtis McElhinney in net (or even better, their backups) in net, it’s cloudy with a chance of goals.

I’ve discussed this in other posts, but Columbus doesn’t really have any great defensemen. I guess the Kevin Connauton/James Wisniewski pair is decent. That pair has seen the opposition’s top line some in recent games, but they’re primarily being used against second lines and occasionally third lines. That’s good news because Philly’s second line has been hot and thus they have some inflated salaries. But the values on the first line wingers, Jakub Voracek ($5,600, W) and Brayden Schenn ($3,700, C), are great. Claude Giroux ($7,700, C) has his price tag back up after a strange dip this weekend. But he’s not unusably expensive. The whole line can go in GPPs, and in cash I prefer Giroux and Voracek. Mark Streit ($4,000, D) plays on the PP unit with all three forwards and can be used along with them.

As far as Philly’s D-men go, the left defenseman on their top two pairs are the one to pick on, so C-RW pairs are the way to go with Columbus. The problem is that Columbus has been putting up some points lately, so their prices are up and their values are down. For a combined $14,500 it’s hard to recommend Ryan Johansen ($7,000, C) and Nick Foligno ($7,500, W). There are times when you like too many value plays and have to spend your money somewhere. If you find yourself in that situation, Johansen/Foligno is a spot to spend your money. However, as I’ll discuss below, there may be better spots to spend big today. The second line pair of Brandon Dubinsky ($4,900, C) and Cam Atkinson ($5,500) is more palatable, but they’re still not great values. If you use Dubinsky/Atkinson, you can also use Jack Johnson ($4,200, D).

The other options are Nashville hosting the Sharks and both participants in the Washington at Pittsburgh game. The problem with Caps-Pens is the quality of the goaltenders. Other than Pekka Rinne and along with maybe Corey Schneider, the goaltending in that game should be among the best of the night. That said, the Pens weak side on their top D pairs is the side of the ice on which Alex Ovechkin ($9,400, C) plays. His center, Nicklas Backstrom ($5,700, C), is not unreasonably priced, so there’s another spot to spend your money if you need to.

Pittsburgh provides another place to spend your money as Evgeni Malkin ($7,800, C) and Patric Hornqvist ($6,000, W) are expensive but not unreasonably so for such a dynamic pair. Washington’s top D pair of Brooks Orpik and John Carlson are not remotely intimidating, and Orpik, the worse of the two, plays on Honrqvist’s side of the ice. Paul Martin ($2,800, D) plays with that pair on the power play and has a nice cheap price tag to help offset the expense of the forwards.

As for Nashville, I’d like to avoid San Jose’s top D pair of Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. In Vlasic’s return to the lineup this weekend, Vlasic and Burns matched up primarily with Tampa’s second line. Assuming that’s the case again tonight, you’ll want to avoid Mike Fisher and Craig Smith. On their other D pairs, the Sharks are weak on the right side with Matt Tennyson and Scott Hannan, so you’ll want to look at C-LW pairs for Nashville. On the top line that’s Mike Ribeiro ($3,900, C) and Colin Wilson ($4,000, C), and on the third line that’s Calle Jarnkrok ($2,700, C) and Filip Forsberg ($5,400, W). Forsberg is a great value at that price and with this matchup. And given that Burns/Vlasic could easily end up playing against the top line, Forsberg is the only left winger sure to have a matchup to exploit. His center is obviously not a stud, so you could just pair him with a D-man with whom he plays on the power play. That said, Roman Josi ($7,200, D) and Shea Weber ($7,600, D) aren’t good values.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Jori Lehtera/Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues (assuming Lehtera centers the second line)
2. Evgeni Malkin/Patric Hornqvist – Pittsburgh Penguins
3. Paul Stastny/Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues (assuming Stastny centers the second line)
4. Claude Giroux/Jakub Voracek – Philadelphia Flyers
5. Nicklas Backstrom/Alex Ovechkin – Washington Capitals
6. Frans Nielsen/Ryan Strome – New York Islanders
7. Mike Ribeiro/Colin Wilson – Nashville Predators**

**If you have a winger spot left to itself that you can’t stack with, make sure you fill it with Forsberg. I just can’t bring myself to recommend playing him with Jarnkrok.

Defense

1. Paul Martin – $2,800 – Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Alex Pietrangelo – $5,000 – St. Louis Blues
3. Mark Streit – $4,000 – Philadelphia Flyers
4. Lubomir Visnovsky – $3,000 – New York Islanders
5. Kris Letang – $6,500 – Pittsburgh Penguins
6. Johnny Boychuk – $4,900 – New York Islanders

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Roberto Luongo – $8,000 – Florida Panthers
2. Cory Schneider – $8,100 – New Jersey Devils (his ownership percentage will be very high)
3. Braden Holtby – $8,400 – Washington Capitals
4. Anton Khudobin – $6,700 – Carolina Hurricans
5. James Reimer* – $6,800 – Toronto Maple Leafs
6. Jonathan Bernier – $7,800 – Toronto Maple Leafs

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.