Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

Buffalo is playing today. That alone will always lead me to bring up their opponent in this section. But Buffalo is playing for the second day in a row and might be starting Anders Lindback in net. Their opponent, the Rangers, also played last night, which could be reason enough to fade them given their presumably astronomical ownership percentages. But it’s too hard to pass up Buffalo on a back-to-back with their backup goaltender in. Even if Michal Neuvirth ends up going for the second day in a row, the matchup is still too good to pass up.

As for which Ranger line to go with, I’m leaning towards the second line. Buffalo is obviously horrible from a possession standpoint, but their best possession line is definitely their second line of Mitchell/Gionta/Moulson. That line hits the ice with Buffalo’s top D pair frequently, and they have primarily been matching up with the opposition’s top line at 5-on-5. That’s why I’m leaning toward the second line of Derek Stepan ($5,000, C), Martin St. Louis ($4,900, W) and Chris Kreider ($5,100, W) instead of the Brassard/Nash/Zuccarello line. Plus, the prices on the second line are more appropriate, and that will give you exposure to both power play units. For a cash game mini-stack, I’d roll with Stepan/St. Louis.

The Rangers aren’t the only offensive team with a good matchup in action today. The Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks are a well above average team and will be in Calgary facing a Flames team that is a well above average matchup for opposing skaters. You want to avoid the Brodie/Giordano pairing on defense and pick on the Wideman/Russell pairing. From a possession standpoint, Wideman/Russell are a dismal pairing. In recent home games, Wideman/Russell have been on the ice with Calgary’s top line, which is even better news for the opposition on the ice against that quintet because Calgary’s top line is below average in terms of possession relative to the average of the Flames’ forward group. And for whatever reason, the Flames have been putting their top line along with Wideman/Russell up against the opposition’s top line in recent home games. I have no idea why the Backlund line and Giordano/Brodie aren’t matching up with the opposition’s best line.

But since they’re not, the Ryan Getzlaf ($6,600, C) line could be in for a big day. Aside from the matchup, Getzlaf’s price is exceedingly reasonable today. Corey Perry ($8,000, W) doesn’t have a similarly reasonable price tag, but you can probably make it work given the relative cheapness of Getzlaf. I wish Patrick Maroon was still on the top line, but last game it was Rene Bourque ($2,500, W) as the third wheel on the top line. At minimum price with such good line mates in such a good matchup, it’s hard to ignore Bourque’s value. He plays on the second power play unit along with Francois Beauchemin ($3,500, D) who is also a good value. Getzlaf/Perry/Bourque/Beauchemin is a pretty good GPP stack that gives you exposure to both power play units.

Now we move on to a couple of home teams I like, one with an offense that has been underperforming but who will be facing a very favorable opponent and one with a great offense and a slightly below average matchup.

The first is the Blackhawks hosting the Avalanche. Of the Avs top two lines, the second line centered by Duchene is the weaker possession line. That line also happens to play primarily with Colorado’s third D pair, which is their worst D pair from a possession standpoint. So that’s the quintet to pick on. Thankfully, Chicago has been going L1-on-L1 and L2-on L2 at home lately. I say thankfully because the values on the Toews/Hossa line are not good. Hossa’s price remains exorbitant. But there is value in the second line of Brad Richards ($4,400, C), Kris Versteeg ($4,300, W) and Patrick Kane ($8,700, W) that the Hawks will likely put out there against the Duchene line. Kane is expensive as he should be, but you can fit that line in given the price tags on the other two. It would also be really nice if the Hawks decided today was the day to put Patrick Sharp ($5,100, W) back in Versteeg’s spot on that second line. But don’t hold your breath.

The second is St. Louis who will host the Bruins. When picking skaters against the Bruins you need to know two things: a) avoid the Marchand line and b) try to pick on the McQuaid/Seidenberg pairing. The Marchand line is technically Boston’s second line, and the Blues have thrown their top line out against the opposition’s second line quite a bit in recent home games. For that reason, the St. Louis second line might be the way to go. It would appear the decision to have Paul Stastny center that line was quickly reversed, so the second line should be Jori Lehtera ($3,600, C), Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,800, W) and Jaden Schwartz ($4,900, W). That line killed me on Tuesday night so I’m a bit gun shy, but that should be the best matchup and it’s definitely the best value. As for Seidenberg/McQuaid, they generally hit the ice with the first and third lines, not the Marchand line, so I’m guessing the Lehtera line will see some of that pairing.

Minnesota is similar to Chicago in that they’re not an above average offensive team, but they also have a good matchup as they’ll be in Edmonton to face the Oilers. The Oilers have one D pair to stay away from in Oscar Klefborn and Justin Schultz, and that pair plays with their best possession forward line, the RNH line. In recent home games that quintet has matched up against the opposition’s top line. So the Minny depth lines have the best chance to take advantage of the matchup. The value is on the second line with Mikael Granlund ($3,500, C) and Thomas Vanek ($5,300, W).

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Jori Lehtera/Jaden Schwartz – St. Louis Blues
2. Derek Stepan/Martin St. Louis – New York Rangers
3. Brad Richards/Kris Versteeg – Chicago Blackhawks
4. Ryan Getzlaf/Rene Bourque – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
5. Jordan Staal/Eric Staal – Carolina Hurricanes
6. Mikael Granlund/Thomas Vanek – Minnesota Wild

Defense

1. Francois Beauchemin – $3,500 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
2. Alex Pietrangelo – $5,100 – St. Louis Blues
3. Jared Spurgeon – $3,700 – Minnesota Wild
4. Duncan Keith – $5,000 – Chicago Blackhawks
5. Andrej Sekera – $4,200 – Carolina Hurricanes
6. Nick Holden – $2,800 – Colorado Avalanche

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. James Reimer* – $6,500 – Toronto Maple Leafs
2. Cam Ward – $7,200 – Carolina Hurricanes
3. Semyon Varlamov – $7,500 – Colorado Avalanche

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.