This post covers the NHL contests on DraftKings starting at 7:00 P.M. EST.

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

We’ve got nine games and 18 teams to choose from in this evening slate. By my calculations, there are four teams from which you should select a majority of the players you roster. But there are also three marginal teams worth considering. I’ll address each of the four best teams individually then briefly touch on the other three teams.

The team that tops my team rankings for the day is a team we rarely see in this section of the post, the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers are a decidedly below average offensive team. In the last 20 days, only two teams have put fewer pucks towards the opposition’s net than the Oilers. But Ilya Bryzgalov is the cure to all Corsi ills. Bryzgalov has a woeful .847 save percentage this year, and when the goalie lets in such a high percentage of shots, the number of shots on net matters less. The (Mighty) Ducks could very well go with John Gibson again, but because they’re playing for the second day in a row, there’s a chance Bryzgalov is in net. But if it is Gibson, forget about the Oilers.

Really the only option for Oilers is their top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,700, C), Jordan Eberle ($5,900, W) and Teddy Purcell ($4,300, W). I guess you could go with the second line, but they’re not cheap enough to entice me to take a risk on the second line of a bad offensive team. Because this game is in Edmonton, the Oilers should be able to get the RNH line away from the Getzlaf line, which is actually a really solid possession line if Patrick Maroon and Kyle Palmieri remain on the top line. The Oil do not have a recent history of matching the RNH line one-on-one with the opposition’s top line, so they should be on the ice with some good individual matchups at some points. Justin Schultz ($3,600, D) joins that trio on the power play and is also an option assuming he’s back in the lineup tonight.

Sticking with home teams, I also like Montreal hosting the Blue Jackets. Only Buffalo and Calgary have been allowing more pucks toward their own net than Columbus over the last ten or so games. At some point soon Sergei Bobrovsky should be back to help the Jackets out with that problem, but for now Curtis McElhinney isn’t good enough to save them, although McElhinney has filled in somewhat adequately.

When picking Canadiens, the line to avoid is the one that will be facing Columbus’ second line centered by Brandon Dubinsky, which is far any away their best possession line. What concerns me a bit is that, in recent home games, the Habs have not been deploying their top line against the opposition’s top line. Normally that probably helps free up their top line to do their offensive thing. But if that practice continues tonight, it could actually limit their top line’s ability to produce.

That said, the top line of David Desharnais ($3,600, C), Max Pacioretty ($8,500, W) and Brendan Gallagher ($5,300, W) is kind of the only option if Alex Galchenyuk is out again tonight. If Galchenyuk is back, then he and Gallagher on the second line would probably be the better mini-stack value for cash games. Assuming Galchenyuk is out and the top line trio discussed stays together, Andrei Markov ($5,000, D) is an option on the blue line as he’ll join that trio on the power play.

Of the two road teams I like today, let’s start with Tampa Bay. All signs point to using the second line as the first line will be matched up against the Oliver Ekman-Larsson D pair, which is never a good thing, and the first line is just a little too pricey for me. Therefore, I’m leaning towards the second line and second power play unit of Tyler Johnson ($5,700, C), Ondrej Palat ($5,200, W) and Nikita Kucherov ($4,700, W).

And then finally I really like one team playing in tonight’s Stadium Series game. Both teams have been excellent recently at putting pucks toward the opposition’s net, but the Sharks are allowing just as many shot attempts towards their own net while the Kings have been allowing fewer pucks toward their net than just about anyone. So I like the Kings in this one. Jeff Carter ($8,100, C) and Tyler Toffoli ($6,300, W) have been hotter than a billy goat in a pepper patch, so their prices are too much for me to stomach. But there’s much better value on the top line with Anze Kopitar ($5,500, C) and Marian Gaborik ($4,800, W). Jake Muzzin ($4,400, D) joins that pair on the power play and is also a nice value.

The other three teams that you might want to take a look at are Carolina in New Jersey, Winnipeg in Toronto and Anaheim in Edmonton. For Carolina, the value on the Staal brothers is decent enough, but I kind of like the matchup best for Jeff Skinner ($5,700, W). He could be paired with his minimum priced center, Riley Nash, for a super cheap mini-stack. Nash and his other winger, Alexander Semin ($3,700, W), is where I’d go if I needed the cheapest possible mini-stack. For Winnipeg, either of their top two lines is an option as they all have reasonable prices and Toronto is a bad possession team at basically every spot. For cash games I might lean toward center-left winger mini-stacks. And then from Anaheim, it’s impossible to ignore the value of Ryan Getzlaf at $6,000. And both of his new line mates, Palmieri and Maroon, are also priced to sell. In GPPs I might shy away from Getzlaf because I imagine his ownership percentage will be through the roof at that price point and with his matchup.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Anze Kopitar/Marian Gaborik – Los Angeles Kings
2. Ryan Getzlaf/Patrick Maroon – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
3. Tyler Johnson/Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
4. David Desharnais/Brendan Gallagher – Montreal Canadiens (make sure they’re together)
5. Mark Scheifele/Michael Frolik – Winnipeg Jets
6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins/Teddy Purcell – Edmonton Oilers (make sure Bryzgalov is in net)
7. Riley Nash/Jeff Skinner – Carolina Hurricanes
8. Bryan Little/Andrew Ladd – Winnipeg Jets

Defense

1. Francois Beauchemin – $3,500 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks
2. Dustin Byfuglien – $6,100 – Winnipeg Jets
3. Jake Muzzin – $4,400 – Los Angeles Kings
4. Victor Hedman – $5,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Andrei Markov – $5,000 – Montreal Canadiens

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy* – $7,200 – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Ben Bishop – $7,400 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Michael Hutchinson* – $7,100 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Keith Kinkaid – $6,400 – New Jersey Devils
5. Brian Elliott – $7,500 – St. Louis Blues

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.