Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

Buffalo is playing today, so I guess we’ll start with their opponent, the Vancouver Canucks. My little Corsi-based matchup statistic still has Buffalo as the best mactchup for opposing skaters primarily because they allow significantly more Corsi events against than any other team. But Buffalo goaltender Michal Neuvirth has been doing his best Carey Price impression since the calendar turned to 2015. In fact, Neuvirth’s 5-on-5 save percentage since January 1 is 0.03% better than Price’s and is bested only by what Henrik Lundqvist did in 11 games in 2015 before getting hurt. Thanks to Neuvirth, Buffalo hasn’t allowed more than three goals in a game this month. So if you want to fade Vancouver today, you won’t get any argument from me.

That said, there’s some good value on Vancouver’s second line. Nick Bonino ($3,600, C) returned to the lineup on Tuesday, and his price is depressed thanks to missing a couple of weeks with an injury. He was paired with Radim Vrbata ($5,200, W) on Tuesday, and Vrbata has a decent price tag himself. That’s a nice pair for cash games.

After Vancouver, the Rangers hosting the Coyotes and the Canadiens against the Blue Jackets are the next best teams to target. Both New York and Montreal are well above average offensive teams, and their opponents are both well below average defensively. Since New York is playing at home, they might have the edge if you’re deciding between the two.

The problem with the Rangers is that there’s not a ton of value to be had. Outside of Mats Zuccarello ($4,600, W), no forward in their top six gets an above average value grade, as you can see in the chart at the bottom of this post. Of their top two centers, the one that centers Zuccarello, Derick Brassard ($5,100, C), has the better value grade, although it’s more a the lesser of two evils. That’s the pair I’d lean toward in cash games. If Rick Nash ($8,300, W) is back in the lineup (he sat out Tuesday with neck spasms), you can use the whole top line in GPPs. I’m not overly interested in pairing Brassard/Zucc with Kevin Hayes ($3,400, W) if Nash sits out again.

If prices weren’t a thing, I’d prefer New York’s second line because they’ll avoid Arizona’s best defenseman, Oliver Ekman-Larsson. But no one on that line has a good value grade, and center Derek Stepan ($6,800, C) has the worst value grade on the team. I just can’t pay for that line. So if Rick Nash isn’t back in the lineup, the Rangers may be limited to the cash game pair of Brassard and Zuccarello, and their really not much of a value combined.

The Canadiens also lack value, but of their top two lines, the one with the better value is also the one with the better matchup. Columbus’ best defensive line is its second line centered by Brandon Dubinsky, and that line has not been matching up with the opposition’s top line in recent Blue Jackets home games. For cash games I like the pair of David Desharnais ($3,900, C) and Brendan Gallagher ($5,700, W), but if you can fit Max Pacioretty ($9,000, W) into a lineup, feel free. I’ll be trying to fit the whole line into a GPP lineup or two. On the blue line, I’m leaning towards Andrei Markov ($5,100, D) over P.K. Subban ($7,300) as the better of the two defensemen that joins the top line on the power play.

The other team with a good but not quite elite matchup is Toronto who will be hosting Philly. Whoever starts in net for Philly will own a sub-.900 save percentage whether it be Rob Zepp or Ray Emery. The matchup for Toronto is elite, but they’re only slightly better than average offensively, which is why Vancouver, Montreal and New York grade out better than the Leafs.

Both of Toronto’s top two lines are in play. I like the first line of Tyler Bozak ($4,300, C), Phil Kessel ($6,500, W) and James van Riemsdyk ($5,600, W) both in cash games and GPPs. If you only like to do a center and one winger for a mini-stack in cash games, either winger will work. I also like the second line pair of Nazem Kadri ($4,800, C) and Joffrey Lupul ($3,900, W) for cash games. That pair gets you exposure to both power play units. If you combine them with Dion Phaneuf ($3,700, D) who plays on the top power play unit along with the first line and Lupul on the other point, you get even more exposure to the top line without having to pay for them. But the top line isn’t so expensive that you can’t just pay up for them if you want to. One thing about Phaneuf, he’s supposedly on track to return to the lineup today, but that had not been confirmed as of this writing.

If you’re looking to play a lot of lineups and want to diversify, I could also get behind the top line for the Kings and the Predators.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Nick Bonino/Radim Vrbata – Vancouver Canucks
2. Tyler Bozak/James van Riemsdyk – Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Tyler Bozak/Phil Kessel – Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Mike Ribeiro/James Neal – Nashville Predators
5. Nazem Kadri/Joffrey Lupul – Toronto Maple Leafs
6. Anze Kopitar/Marian Gaborik – Los Angeles Kings
7. Sean Couturier/Jakub Voracek – Philadelphia Flyers

Defense

1. Danny DeKeyser – $2,700 – Detroit Red Wings
2. Dion Phaneuf – $3,700 – Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Cody Franson – $4,000 – Nashville Predators
4. Mark Streit – $4,100 – Philadelphia Flyers
5. Jake Muzzin – $4,600 – Los Angeles Kings
6. Drew Doughty – $5,500 – Los Angeles Kings

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Cam Talbot – $8,400 – New York Rangers
2. Carter Hutton* – $7,300 – Nashville Predators
3. Scott Darling* – $7,300 – Chicago Blackhawks
4. Jonathan Bernier – $7,000 – Toronto Maple Leafs
5. Pekka Rinne – $9,000 – Nashville Predators

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.