Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

According to my personal matchup calculation, the New York Islanders have the best matchup of the day as they’ll host the Calgary Flames. The Isles are also the best offense in action today. In fact, it’s my opinion that the Isles have had the best offense in the league for the last couple of months. And it’s not like they’ve been greatoffensively because of an unsustainable shooting percentage. Since the calendar turned to 2015, no team is even close to New York’s league-leading 5-on-5 Corsi for per 60 minutes.

The value play for the Isles is their second line. Because they’ve been so good, there’s not a ton of value on the team, but Frans Nielsen ($4,800, C) and Ryan Strome ($4,300, C) have above average value grades. Strome in particular is reasonably priced. But Nielsen plays on the top power play unit and that could be a good way to get some exposure to the top line. But if you can afford it, it’s probably preferable to go with the top line of John Tavares ($8,900, C), Anders Lee ($5,000, C) and Josh Bailey ($4,300, W). If you added Lubomir Visnovsky ($3,400, D) to your lineup with the top line, you’d have good exposure to both power play units.

I will admit that the prices and the individual matchup for the Tavares line do have me seriously considering the Nielsen line. Tavares and company are likely to see more of the Mark Giordano/T.J. Brodie pairing, while the second line should see more of Dennis Wideman/Kris Russell. The difference in possession numbers between those Calgary D pairs is significant. If this game was being played in Calgary, I guess I’d be more concerned, but with last change the Isles should be able to get Tavares away from that top pairing some. The Rangers were able to do that when they recently hosted Calgary as Giordano/Brodie spent near equal time on the ice with the Brassard and Stepan lines. Of course, it’s possible Calgary decided to put Giordano/Brodie on that second line as the game moved on given the second line was much more productive.

I’m rambling here, but for GPPs I’m going to be hard pressed to go with the Nielsen line over the Tavares lines. Maybe you could go Nielsen/Strome and either Nick Leddy ($3,900, D) or Johnny Boychuk ($5,300, D) who play on the top power play unit just to get some extra exposure to the Tavares line. As for cash games, you can use Tavares if you can fit him in, but don’t force him in there. Get exposure to him some other way.

There are only two other above average offensive teams in action tonight that have an above average matchup. That’s Dallas hosting Colorado and Washington at Carolina.

The Stars continue to be without Tyler Seguin, but I have taken that into account. They’re not putting as many pucks towards the opposition’s net, but they’re not doing so at a significantly lower rate without their star. They’re still a viable option for DFS players. The problem with rostering Stars is that Jason Spezza ($7,800, C) and Jamie Benn ($8,900, W) are about the only reliable offensive options they have. Erik Cole ($4,400, W) has also been scoring lately while paired with Spezza/Benn, but his little streak has made him a little pricey for my liking.

However, Stars coach Lindy Ruff may throw us a lifeline tonight. In practice yesterday he split up Spezza and Benn with Spezza centering Cole and Ales Hemsky while Benn was centered by Cody Eakin ($3,900, C) along with Brett Ritchie ($2,800, W). If that holds in morning skate tomorrow, I could get behind that Benn/Eakin/Ritchie line. But I will be a bit concerned that Ruff will go back to Benn and Spezza together at some point if the Stars aren’t scoring. If Ruff decided to just keep Benn and Spezza together from the get-go, I might look elsewhere as their combined cost will make roster building difficult. Ultimately, I’m saying there’s potential here but also a fair bit of uncertainty. If that’s enough to push you in a different direction, I understand.

Like Dallas, Washington has a really expensive pair of players, but I’m less hesitant to spend for them because I’m almost positive they’ll be playing together the whole game. The first line of Alex Ovechkin ($9,300, W), Nicklas Backstrom ($7,100, C) and Andre Burakovsky ($3,400, W) is unsurprisingly the line to go with here. Despite their high price tags, they’re arguably the better value play than the second line. Ovechkin and Backstrom are on the top PP unit and Burakovsky is on the second. If you also use Matt Niskanen ($3,800, D), you’ll have good exposure to both power play units.

The Islanders, Stars and Capitals are clearly the best options according to my matchup statistic. They distance themselves from the pack by a decent margin. However, if you can’t get on board with the Stars, I’d probably lean toward the Lightning hosting the Blackhawks as a third option. Aside from the Isles, the Bolts are the best offensive team in action today, and the Hawks are playing on the second half of a back-to-back sans Patrick Kane.

If prices weren’t a thing, I’d lean toward the second line because they’re more likely to see less of a stout Duncan Keith/David Rundblad pairing. But center Tyler Johnson ($6,300, C) and Ondrej Palat ($6,800, W) are a little expensive for my liking. The other winger on the second line, Nikita Kucherov ($4,700, W), does have a nice price. According to my projections, his production isn’t much different from Palat’s. I could see pairing Johnson and Kucherov, but I don’t know if using the whole line is a good value play. If you can afford it, go for it. Kucherov could also be used alone if you stacked players from another line.

From a value standpoint, the play from Tampa is the third line pair of Valtteri Filppula ($4,100, C) and Cedric Paquette ($3,200, C). That’s a really nice pair for cash games. Filppula plays on the top power play unit, and you could play them with Anton Stralman ($3,600, D) who plays on the second unit with the Johnson line. As for the top line, both wingers, Ryan Callahan ($5,400, W) and Alex Killorn ($3,900, W), have decent value grades, and Steven Stamkos ($8,600, C) has been more expensive this year. But I just worry about their matchup with Keith/Rundblad.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center/Winger Mini-Stacks

1. Frans Nielsen/Ryan Strome – New York Islanders
2. Valtteri Filppula/Cedric Paquette – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Sean Monahan/Johnny Gaudreau – Calgary Flames
4. Nicklas Backstrom/Alex Ovechkin – Washington Capitals
5. Tyler Johnson/Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Cody Eakin/Jamie Benn – Dallas Stars

Defense

1. John Klingberg – $4,100 – Dallas Stars
2. Dennis Wideman – $5,200 – Calgary Flames
3. Alex Goligoski – $3,800 – Dallas Stars
4. Victor Hedman – $5,600 – Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Travis Hamonic – $4,100 – New York Islanders
6. Matt Niskanen – $3,800 – Washington Capitals

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy* – $6,800 – Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Ben Bishop – $8,500 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Braden Holtby – $8,800 – Washington Capitals
4. Cory Schneider – $8,700 – New Jersey Devils
5. Frederik Andersen – $7,900 – Anaheim (Mighty) Ducks

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.