Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And then ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

The easy choice for best matchup of the night belongs to Detroit against Buffalo because no one has allowed more goals than Buffalo over the last month and a half. I’ll have plenty of Red Wings in my lineups, but I’m going to be careful about over-investing for two reasons. First, Detroit is just an average goal-scoring team, although they are a dominating possession team. Second, everyone and their dog will be heavy on Red Wings because there’s nothing easier than picking on Buffalo. If you’re just making one lineup and playing in a GPP, I can get behind going contrarion and ignoring Detroit. But if you’re playing cash games or making multiple GPP lineups, you have to have some exposure.

As for the Red Wings to which you should have exposure, my first choice would Pavel Datsyuk ($5,600, C) and Tomas Tatar ($4,500, W). But there’s also nothing wrong with the pairing of Henrik Zetterberg ($6,200, C) and Gustav Nyquist ($5,300, W). I also like defenseman Danny DeKeyser ($2,500, D) who plays on the second power play unit with Tatar. Niklas Kronwall ($4,100, D) is also an option as he plays on the top power play unit with Datsyuk,, Zetterberg and Nyquist.

The next best matchup according to my matchup statistic (which is a mix of Corsi against and save percentage) belongs to Pittsburgh against Minnesota. But as with Detroit, I have reservations about Penguins. I also think a lot of people might be on the Pens who are a popular team in a good matchup. So for contrarion purposes I don’t want to over-invest. But I’m also concerned about Pittsburgh’s goal output as they have the fifth lowest goal total over the last 45 days. If you do go with a Pens stack, go with the first line of Sidney Crosby ($8,700, C), Chris Kunitz ($5,200, W) and David Perron ($4,200, W) who also play on the top power play unit together. They’re joined on the PP by Kris Letang ($5,600, D).

It wouldn’t be one of my NHL write-ups without me mentioning a stack from whatever team is facing Edmonton. Today that’s the St. Louis Blues who have scored eight more goals than any other team over the last 45 days. However, that scoring streak they’ve been on has priced their first line out of use. But I continue to think the second line is underpriced and gives you good value. That’s Jori Lehtera ($3,700, C), Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,600, W) and Jaden Schwartz ($6,700, W). If you don’t like to stack an entire line, I prefer the pair of Lehtera and Tarasenko. I would not stack them with Kevin Shattenkirk, who joins them on the power play, because his price is just too high.

There are few other mini-stacks I plan on using. I want to use some Rangers against the Islanders who have had the second worst goaltending in the league over the last month and a half. I’m leaning toward using the second line pair of Derek Stepan ($5,100, C) and Martin St. Louis ($5,600, W) simply because I expect more defensive focus to be put on Rick Nash, who plays on the first line. Stepan and St. Louis also play on the top power play unit together. The other other mini-stack I kind of like is Antoine Vermette ($3,800, C) and Shane Doan ($4,600, W). You could throw Keith Yandle ($5,500, D) with them if you like.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

1. Pavel Datsyuk – $5,600 – Detroit Red Wings
2. Henrik Zetterberg – $6,200 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Antoine Vermette – $3,800 – Arizona Coyotes
4. Jori Lehtera – $3,700 – St. Louis Blues
5. Derek Stepan – $5,100 – New York Rangers
6. Sidney Crosby – $8,700 – Pittsburgh Penguins

Winger

1. David Perron – $4,200 – Pittsburgh Penguins
2. Tomas Tatar – $4,500 – Detroit Red Wings
3. Chris Kunitz – $5,200 – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Gustav Nyquist – $5,300 – Detroit Red Wings
5. Martin St. Louis – $5,600 – New York Rangers
6. Vladimir Tarasenko – $6,600 – St. Louis Blues
7. Patrick Marleau – $5,000 – San Jose Sharks
8. Beau Bennett – $2,900 – Pittsburgh Penguins
9. Alex Tanguay – $3,100 – Colorado Avalanche

Defense

1. Danny DeKeyser – $2,500 – Detroit Red Wings
2. Brent Burns – $6,200 – San Jose Sharks
3. Kris Letang – $5,600 – Pittsburgh Penguins
4. Paul Martin – $2,800 – Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Toby Enstrom – $3,200 – Winnipeg Jets

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Michael Hutchinson – $7,800 – Winnipeg Jets
2. Calvin Pickard – $7,500 – Colorado Avalanche
3. Alex Stalock* – $6,600 – San Jose Sharks
4. Marc-Andre Fleury – $8,700 Pittsburgh Penguins

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.