Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And then ‘zDIFF’ is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

When discussing stacks, we could be discussing two types of stacks. The first is a team heavy stack with four or more players from the same team. I usually lean towards five guys from the same team in this kind of stack, but sometimes it’s four or six. The other option is a mini-stack where you usually stack a center and a winger who play together on the same line, and sometimes you can throw in a defenseman with them who plays on the same power play unit as the forwards.

Previously I used a combination of mini-stacks to build all my lineups, both GPP and cash games, but I came to realize that doing so limited the upside of a lineup. Sure, three mini-stacks paired together can all go off and win you a GPP, but I’ve had much more success since switching to team heavy stacks. Not only am I hitting top level point totals more often, but I’m also seeing the average score for my lineups increasing. Yes, going heavy on one team greatly increases your downside for a lineup, but I have little doubt at this point that it’s the best strategy for GPPs. Now, I could also argue it as a cash game strategy. If you’re just playing one or two lineups in cash games each night, it’s probably not a good move. But if you are able to make a healthy number of lineups each night, I think you’re going to be average or better more often than not. That said, I’m not going to try too hard to talk you out of a combo of mini-stacks for cash games. But I do encourage you to go heavy on one team in GPP linueps.

We’ve got five candidates for team heavy stacks today as, in my estimation, the five best matchups in the league for opposing skaters are all playing today. Those matchups today belong to Minnesota, Buffalo, San Jose, Tampa Bay and Calgary. Minnesota and Buffalo, the two best matchups for opposing teams, actually play each other in a battle of goal prevention ineptitude. Despite the good matchup, I can’t recommend a team heavy stack on Buffalo because they’re only averaging a goal and a half scored over their last 20 games. That said, I do think Sabres will still have low ownership percentages despite the good matchup, so a Buffalo mini-stack thrown in with a team heavy stack could be an option. If you want to go that contrarion route, go with Tyler Ennis ($4,400, C) and Zemgus Girgensons ($3,400, C). You can also play Tyler Myers ($3,100, D) with them if it fits your lineup.

But I can recommend a team heavy stack with Minnesota. They’ve been an average goal scoring team recently, and this is the kind of matchup where an average goal scoring team gets right. The options among Wild players are plentiful. Obviously their first line has to be a part of any Minnesota stack. Zach Parise ($6,100, W) is just too cheap after he recently missed some time due to his father’s passing. Parise and his center, Mikko Koivu ($4,100, C) have to be a in any Wild stack. I also like the other winger on the top line, Jason Pominville ($5,700, W). The other pair of forwards you can use is Charlie Coyle ($3,700, C) and Nino Niederreiter ($3,600, W). As for a D-man, you can use either Ryan Suter ($4,600, D) or Jared Spurgeon ($4,200, D).

Next up we’ve got Tampa Bay, who has scored the fourth most goals over the last month and a half, against Edmonton. I like the forward parings of Steven Stamkos ($9,200, C) and Ondrej Palat ($5,100, W) along with Valtteri Filppula ($4,200, C) and Ryan Callahan ($5,100, W) . You can add D-man Matt Carle ($3,600, D) to that stack.

And then in San Jose I also like the entire top power play unit, especially since Toronto played last night. That’s the first line pair of Joe Thornton ($5,100, C) and Patrick Marleau ($5,000, W), the second line pair of Logan Couture ($8,100, C) and Joe Pavelski ($7,400, C) and D-man Brent Burns ($6,700, D). That’s an expensive stack, but if you use a near-minimum price defenseman and a couple of cheap-ish wingers, you can make it work.

Again, I’ve got cash game rankings below, but here are some mini-stacks I would use in cash games and potentially to fill the gaps in a team heavy stack. From Calgary I like Mikael Backlund ($4,200, C) and John Gaudreau ($4,600, W) with Kris Russell ($4,400, D). From Winnipeg I like Bryan Little ($5,100, C) and Blake Wheeler ($6,000, W). And then also the Buffalo mini-stack I mentioned above.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

1. Mikko Koivu – $4,100 – Minnesota Wild
2. Joe Pavelski – $7,400 – San Jose Sharks
3. Tyler Ennis – $4,400 – Buffalo Sabres
4. Valtteri Filppula – $4,200 – Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Mikael Backlund – $4,200 – Calgary Flames
6. Tyler Bozak – $4,600 – Toronto Maple Leafs
7. Bryan Little – $5,100 – Winnipeg Jets

Winger

1. Zach Parise – $6,100 – Minnesota Wild
2. Patrick Marleau – $5,000 – San Jose Sharks
3. Nino Niederreiter – $3,600 – Minnesota Wild
4. Ryan Callahan – $5,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
5. Jason Pominville – $5,700 – Minnesota Wikd
6. Ondrej Palat – $5,100 – Tampa Bay Lightning
7. Johnny Gaudreau – $4,600 – Calgary Flames
8. Blake Wheeler – $6,000 – Winnipeg Jets
9. Phil Kessel – $7,600 – Toronto Maple Leafs

Defense

1. Tyler Myers – $3,100 – Buffalo Sabres
2. Kris Russell – $4,400 – Calgary Flames
3. Niklas Kronwall – $3,700 – Detroit Red Wings
4. Mark Giordano – $5,500 – Calgary Flames
5. Jared Spurgeon – $4,200 – Minnesota Wild

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Joni Ortio – $6,200 – Calgary Flames
2. Ben Bishop – $7,400 – Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Calvin Pickard* – $7,400 – Colorado Avalanche
4. Kari Lehtonen – $6,500 – Dallas Stars
5. Eddie Lack* – $6,500 – Vancouver Canucks

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.