Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players at his position in action today. Then we have ‘OPPz’ which is how far above or below average the player’s matchup is. Quality of matchup is determined with a mix of Corsi against and save percentage of the team the player will be facing. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from numberfire.com’s rest-of-season projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players at the position in action today. ‘zTOTAL’ is the player’s projection z-score combined with his matchup z-score. And then ‘zDIFF’ to the right of zTOTAL is zTOTAL minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Stack Options

It’s the Connor McDavid bowl in Edmonton tonight as the Oilers (33 points, 29th) host the Sabres (31 points, 30th). My guess is that Buffalo holds on to last place and actually distances themselves from Edmonton and the rest of the field by year’s end. That’s partly because I don’t think Edmonton is as bad as they seem. They’re a mess defensively with bad goaltending and some possession problems. But their possession problems aren’t nearly as bad as Buffalo’s because Edmonton is much more capable of putting the puck towards the opposition’s net. Over the last 20 or so games, Edmonton ranks 16th in Corsi for events and Buffalo ranks next to last. That means Edmonton is at least close to average offensively, and any average offensive team is definitely worth stacking against Buffalo.

Edmonton isn’t deep enough to look past their first two lines for stacking options, so first line center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,500, C) has to be a part of any Edmonton stack. But knowing which winger to pair with RNH is tough today because Taylor Hall ($5,200, W) sat out Tuesday after being hit by a pick in practice on Monday. If Hall is good to go, pair him with RNH. If not, go with Jordan Eberle ($5,300, W). For an Edmonton-heavy stack, add the second line pair of Derek Roy ($3,400, C) and Nail Yakupov ($3,500, W). I don’t know that it’s necessary to use any Edmonton defenseman with their forwards.

After Edmonton against Buffalo, there are three other teams with really good matchups, Nashville against St. Louis, Ottawa against Dallas and Minnesota against Calgary. Nashville and Minnestoa have above average offenses, but Ottawa is slightly below average. Ottawa does have the advantage of playing at home, but the gap in offensive performance has me leaning toward the two road teams from this trio of teams with good matchups.

For Nashville, I really like Filip Forsberg ($5,600, W) and Mike Fisher ($5,600, C). Unfortunately, they don’t play on a line together. Pair Forsberg with his center, Mike Ribeiro ($4,600, C), and pair Fisher with his left winger, Colin Wilson ($5,000, C). If you can afford it, I’d add Roman Josi ($5,600) to that stack. Josi plays on the power play with Fisher and Forsberg. But if you need to save some money, Mattias Ekholm ($2,900) plays on the power play with Wilsn and Ribeiro. For Minnesota I also like a couple of first line forward pairs. Go with Mikael Granlund ($3,700, C) and Zach Parise ($8,700, W) as well as Mikko Koivu ($4,900, C) and Jason Zucker ($3,000). Both Ryan Suter ($4,900, D) and Jared Spurgeon ($3,900) are options depending on how much money you have left over.

Now that we’ve dealt with all the non-elite offensive teams with really good matchups, we have to discuss the top scoring teams in action today who don’t have the best matchups. That’s St. Louis against Nashville and Winnipeg against Philadelphia. Nashville grades out as a slightly below average matchup, but with no Pekka Rinne, they’re probably a better matchup than my numbers indicate. Philadelphia is an above average matchup for Winnipeg, but I prefer the Blues to the Jets for two reasons. First, St. Louis grades out as the better offensive team. Winnipeg can score, but the Blues are one of the three best offensive teams in the league in my opinion. Second, the Blues are playing at home while Winnipeg is on the road. Blues it is.

As I noted yesterday, if you want to use bottom six forwards in your DFS lineups, do it when they are playing home games. On average all types of players, top six forwards, bottom six forwards and defensemen, score more at home. But the degree to which scoring declines on the road is more significant for bottom six forwards than it is for top six forwards. That’s why I’m a fan of St. Louis’ third line at home today. From that line I’ll be pairing Paul Stastny ($4,400, C) and Jaden Schwartz ($5,500, W). And the from the top six I’ll be pairing second liners Jori Lehtera ($2,800, C) and Vladimir Tarasenko ($7,000, W). Kevin Shattenkirk ($5,300, D) is a great value on the blue line to pair with those forwards.

So there you have it. Edmonton, Nashville, Minnesota and St. Louis for your stacks today.

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings

Center

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – $5,500 – Edmonton Oilers
2. Mike Fisher – $5,600 – Nashville Predators
3. Kyle Turris – $4,500 – Ottawa Senators
4. Bryan Little – $5,000 – Winnipeg Jets
5. Jussi Jokinen – $3,700 – Florida Panthers
6. Patrice Beregron – $5,400 – Boston Bruins
7. Claude Giroux – $7,500 – Philadelphia Flyers

Winger

1. Taylor Hall – $5,200 – Edmonton Oilers
   1. Jordan Eberle – $5,300 – Edmonton Oilers (if Hall is out)
2. Filip Forsberg – $5,600 – Nashville Predators
3. Clarke MacArthur – $4,000 – Ottawa Senators
4. Blake Wheeler – $5,600 – Winnipeg Jets
5. Wayne Simmonds – $4,900 – Philadelphia Flyers
6. Jakub Voracek – $6,100 – Philadelphia Flyers
7. Jimmy Hayes – $2,900 – Florida Panthers
8. Phil Kessel – $6,200 – Toronto Maple Leafs
9. Zach Parise – $8,700 – Minnesota Wild

Defense

1. Kevin Shattenkirk – $5,300 – St. Louis Blues
2. Kris Russell – $4,200 – Calgary Flames
3. Toby Enstrom – $2,900 – Winnipeg Jets
4. Michael Stone – $3,400 – Arizona Coyotes
5. Roman Josi – $5,600 – Nashville Predators
6. Ryan Suter – $4,900 – Minnesota Wild

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

1. Jonas Hiller – $6,400 – Calgary Flames
2. Jonathan Bernier – $6,500 – Toronto Maple Leafs
3. Kari Lehtonen – $7,400 – Dallas Stars
4. Brian Elliott – $8,100 – St. Louis Blues
5. Ben Bishop – $8,200 – Tampa Bay Lightning

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.